ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

Guess you could always head to my place. It's 4.88 feet above!

Sadly, after last weekend's near flooding event inside my home, I'm more worried about my power bill saving oak canopy falling into my living room with 80 mph+ sustained winds now. So I'll pass. TN is looking better and better....

Come on up! We have plenty of room here in East TN.

My family is 2 hours west of you. If a hurricane gets me there, the world is ending.

[TJRE]

https://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/go ... stfull.jpg

haunting .....

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042306
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 14 20170904
225700 1525N 05555W 6963 03139 0031 +087 +078 303032 033 031 002 00
225730 1526N 05554W 6975 03124 0030 +088 +066 306033 035 032 003 01
225800 1527N 05552W 6963 03136 0026 +094 +064 302034 035 032 003 00
225830 1529N 05551W 6967 03129 0029 +088 +075 310034 041 032 003 03
225900 1530N 05550W 6996 03099 0037 +093 +091 300034 037 039 007 01
225930 1531N 05548W 6957 03140 //// +089 //// 303038 038 032 000 01
230000 1533N 05547W 6972 03121 //// +090 //// 302036 038 034 002 01
230030 1534N 05546W 6969 03123 0044 +089 //// 298035 037 035 003 01
230100 1535N 05544W 6969 03121 0023 +089 +078 300037 039 033 002 00
230130 1536N 05543W 6963 03128 0025 +086 +074 301040 040 032 001 00
230200 1538N 05542W 6970 03117 0016 +092 +067 302040 040 032 000 00
230230 1539N 05540W 6967 03121 0017 +093 +062 302040 041 030 001 00
230300 1540N 05539W 6962 03124 0016 +091 +062 302041 041 032 000 00
230330 1542N 05538W 6969 03117 0017 +090 +063 301041 041 032 000 00
230400 1543N 05536W 6967 03117 0016 +087 +068 300041 041 034 000 03
230430 1544N 05535W 6969 03112 0023 +081 +074 297041 042 036 001 01
230500 1546N 05534W 6970 03107 0020 +079 //// 296043 044 038 004 01
230530 1547N 05532W 6967 03107 //// +070 //// 296035 041 038 003 01
230600 1548N 05531W 6971 03099 0003 +084 +071 299041 042 039 002 00
230630 1550N 05530W 6967 03101 9997 +090 +063 295044 044 037 001 00
$$

[RL3AO]

It's updating, but NOAA9 is coming in on the same feed about a minute later so it's easy to miss it.

[Jimsot]

Time has just about run out for those folks in the NE Antilles. But since I lived there myself for ten years they do know how to deal with it. But this might be beyond even Luis in 1995. Awful.

Starting to see some blue down the eye on JSL, usually sign of a storm getting very intense. Once she works out the eye maybe run at Cat 5? Strong Cat 4 at the least. I would not be sitting comfortable if I were in Florida right now. Good thing is time is on your side.



Also closing in on warmest SST's during its life thus far

[sponger]

Here is a great site for predicting storm surge potential. You can zoom in to s FL and then choose your storm category from 1-5. http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSer ... ad&entry=1

That surge will be epic if GFS verifies. Everything East of US 1 up to Cutler is under water in that scenario. Evacs are going to be massive and unprecedented. Better book now folks! Tallahassee is my refuge and I booked it last night waiting on the Euro.

[UpTheCreek]

Having lived in coastal NC for 15 years, I never ran from a storm. But if I lived in Florida, especially the bottom half, I'd be packing and leaving tonight. This looks very bad, no matter the path it ends up taking.

We're happy to take in any of you if you care to drive all the way up to Maine!

[Chris90]

New SSMIS overpass. Strong ice scattering in the new eyewall. This is indicative of some fairly deep convection in the eyewall.

The strong ice scattering in the eyewall, is that like the graupel the hurricane hunters experienced in the eyewall of Felix back in '07?

[Aric Dunn]

ERC is nearly compelete.. radar is showing it has pretty much collapsed but the sat appearance still showing intermittent convection .. just its super close.

[eastcoastFL]

After Charley, I never dismiss intensity forecasts. The models back then missed the drop in pressure and rapid intensification from a Cat 2 to a Cat 4. I'll ride a 2 out, a 4? No freaking way.

Same here. I'll ride out a 2 maybe even a 3. Wilma was intense but we survived just fine. But north of that i can't take the risk especially with my children. My only problem now is where the heck do i go? How far?

I'll give you a hint. I had friends that evacuated from Punta Gorda to the Orlando area during Charley.

Their car got trashed by debris.

You'll have to calculate for yourself once the forecast becomes clearer in the next 48 hours.

That's my plan at the moment. My mother and her dog are thinking of driving towards the western Carolinas. We may tag along. If the current models verify then not much of Florida will be too safe. Maybe the pan handle.

[BobHarlem]

Irma's bands are starting to show up on the Barbados radar http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?295

[robbielyn]

I think with all the new weather measurements going into the next Euro run, the run could be just off shore like Matthew. Just a feeling.

won't u be surprised if they don't.

[johngaltfla]

Same here. I'll ride out a 2 maybe even a 3. Wilma was intense but we survived just fine. But north of that i can't take the risk especially with my children. My only problem now is where the heck do i go? How far?

I'll give you a hint. I had friends that evacuated from Punta Gorda to the Orlando area during Charley.

Their car got trashed by debris.

You'll have to calculate for yourself once the forecast becomes clearer in the next 48 hours.

That's my plan at the moment. My mother and her dog are thinking of driving towards the western Carolinas. We may tag along. If the current models verify then not much of Florida will be too safe. Maybe the pan handle.

FWIW, I've always made reservations in NW Florida, Dothan, AL, even Thomasville, GA. I want to be North and West of maximum intensity. I can always cancel those reservations on Thursday if the storm looks to shift east or miss us completely.

[Aric Dunn]

latest center pass radar.. wow.. amazing

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... Center.kmz

[tropicwatch]

I think Kermit is having some intermittent communication issues.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042316
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 15 20170904
230700 1551N 05528W 6967 03098 9992 +090 +064 288044 045 038 001 00
230730 1552N 05527W 6963 03098 9986 +090 +067 288046 046 040 000 00
230800 1554N 05525W 6969 03089 9986 +090 +069 292046 047 042 002 00
230830 1555N 05524W 6952 03104 9995 +098 +098 287049 052 039 011 00
230900 1557N 05522W 6991 03057 9995 +099 //// 292050 056 043 006 01
230930 1558N 05521W 6957 03091 9971 +088 +081 289054 056 044 004 00
231000 1559N 05520W 6966 03076 9971 +084 +079 287049 054 047 003 01
231030 1601N 05518W 6968 03070 9970 +085 +074 287051 052 047 002 00
231100 1602N 05517W 6968 03065 9963 +085 +075 289055 056 047 006 00
231130 1603N 05515W 6966 03062 9963 +081 +077 287056 057 049 006 00
231200 1605N 05514W 6967 03055 9972 +081 +081 282057 057 050 010 00
231230 1606N 05512W 6969 03047 9971 +080 +080 283058 059 048 013 00
231300 1608N 05511W 6967 03043 9965 +077 +077 286062 063 051 010 00
231330 1609N 05510W 6962 03040 9942 +077 //// 287062 063 053 010 05
231400 1611N 05509W 6981 03008 9929 +088 //// 282063 066 057 015 01
231430 1612N 05508W 6962 03019 9923 +092 +092 280069 070 060 015 00
231500 1614N 05507W 6969 03000 9908 +096 +096 287072 072 064 022 03
231530 1616N 05507W 6973 02982 9886 +104 +104 290076 076 066 022 03
231600 1617N 05506W 6959 02980 9866 +105 +105 293075 077 071 016 00
231630 1619N 05506W 6962 02961 9832 +105 +105 293076 077 073 009 00
$$
;

[johngaltfla]

latest center pass radar.. wow.. amazing

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... Center.kmz

Aric, I fear that is going to be one of many astonishing pictures we see in the next week or so. I fear what it will look like as it approaches Key Largo as that is some of the warmest water it will hit also right before landfall in the US if the the models verify.

[otowntiger]

ERC is nearly compelete.. radar is showing it has pretty much collapsed but the sat appearance still showing intermittent convection .. just its super close.

It'll finish just in time for the next one to start.

[Kingarabian]

This could be making landfall at the beginning of the NFL season...

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 042319
NOAA2 0511A IRMA HDOB 19 20170904
230930 1638N 05442W 7516 02095 9535 +187 +144 196075 083 085 004 00
231000 1637N 05440W 7514 02139 9584 +171 +167 192091 094 104 015 00
231030 1637N 05439W 7546 02143 9643 +157 //// 195095 098 104 029 01
231100 1636N 05437W 7530 02203 9692 +150 //// 194099 101 103 041 01
231130 1636N 05435W 7522 02253 9733 +152 //// 194102 104 096 043 01
231200 1635N 05433W 7525 02282 9766 +154 //// 198095 097 093 027 01
231230 1635N 05431W 7509 02331 9815 +140 //// 198098 100 086 019 01
231300 1635N 05429W 7430 02443 9842 +133 //// 188098 100 081 023 05
231330 1634N 05427W 7466 02422 9864 +134 +132 185095 099 071 035 03
231400 1634N 05425W 7484 02410 9873 +142 +123 183092 092 065 030 03
231430 1634N 05423W 7514 02392 9893 +142 +120 186090 092 062 008 00
231500 1635N 05421W 7526 02392 9916 +132 +125 186085 086 062 006 00
231530 1635N 05419W 7525 02405 9930 +131 +128 185082 082 058 007 00
231600 1635N 05417W 7530 02404 9936 +135 +125 184081 082 058 008 00
231630 1635N 05415W 7480 02472 9941 +133 //// 185076 081 059 021 05
231700 1635N 05412W 7483 02474 9952 +129 //// 179075 078 057 033 01
231730 1636N 05410W 7526 02436 9969 +125 //// 175072 074 051 021 01
231800 1636N 05408W 7527 02442 9975 +128 //// 177072 072 050 020 05
231830 1636N 05406W 7512 02465 9979 +131 +129 178071 072 048 007 00
231900 1636N 05404W 7521 02459 9983 +136 +117 177074 074 048 007 00