ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

This could be making landfall at the beginning of the NFL season...

Buccaneers-Dolphins is looking dicey. 1 PM Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens)

[RL3AO]

The previous dataset had a center pressure of 944 and a FL wind of 110kt.

[Evil Jeremy]

The problem with evacuating from Irma is that the only way to go in Florida is North.... and Irma is headed the same way. It's a horrific scenario. How far North is considered safe? If the worst case scenario unfolds (she rides up the whole peninsula as a major), there is no place to drive to. Everyone will be fighting to get North, historically nightmarish traffic.

If I were in the Keys, I'd be getting out now. Tomorrow I'm working out my evac options. If the models are the same tomorrow night as they are now, I might need to hit the road on Wednesday. Not going to put up with the masses on Thursday.

This could be making landfall at the beginning of the NFL season...

Buccaneers-Dolphins is looking dicey. 1 PM Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens)

From what I hear, the NFL is considering moving the game up to Thursday night or Friday night.

[Blinhart]

Looks like Kansas City and St. Louis might be center of relocation of evacuees.

[nascarfan999]

How much damage would a storm that powerful do to Florida if the GFS is right? How prone is south Florida to storm surge?

Wiki list of high points in FL, most of which are in the northern part. Bottom of the list is a whopping 49 feet above sea level. I would imagine a substantial surge could swamp across much of then southern part of the state.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_F ... est_points


.

5 counties are entirely under 50 feet in elevation, including Miami-Dade and Broward. Monroe County (extreme SW Florida and the keys) is the lowest with the whole county being less than 20 feet above sea level.

Source: http://peakbagger.com/list.aspx?lid=135 ... u=0&pt=avg

[La Sirena]

I'll give you a hint. I had friends that evacuated from Punta Gorda to the Orlando area during Charley.

Their car got trashed by debris.

You'll have to calculate for yourself once the forecast becomes clearer in the next 48 hours.

FWIW, I've always made reservations in NW Florida, Dothan, AL, even Thomasville, GA. I want to be North and West of maximum intensity. I can always cancel those reservations on Thursday if the storm looks to shift east or miss us completely.

Dothan! We're the Peanut Capital of the World!

[Michele B]

How much damage would a storm that powerful do to Florida if the GFS is right? How prone is south Florida to storm surge?

Wiki list of high points in FL, most of which are in the northern part. Bottom of the list is a whopping 49 feet above sea level. I would imagine a substantial surge could swamp across much of then southern part of the state
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_F ... est_points

And we've had a lot of rain here of
Late. Peace River is above flood stage, I'm sure Caloosahatchee River is high as well.
.

[Kingarabian]

Edit: Nvm 944mb. With 110kt winds on the NOAA plane

[Extratropical94]

945 mb center splash with 6 knots of wind

UZNT13 KWBC 042315
XXAA 54238 99167 70549 04264 99945 28014 13006 00/// ///// /////
92187 26407 15505 85933 22808 16503 88999 77999
31313 09608 82307
61616 NOAA2 0511A IRMA OB 09
62626 CENTER SPL 1669N05487W 2310 MBL WND 15005 AEV 33297 DLM WND
15504 943752 WL150 14505 085 REL 1669N05487W 230709 =
XXBB 54238 99167 70549 04264 00945 28014 11850 22808 22752 18611
21212 00945 13006 11850 16503 22752 16003
31313 09608 82307
61616 NOAA2 0511A IRMA OB 09
62626 CENTER SPL 1669N05487W 2310 MBL WND 15005 AEV 33297 DLM WND
15504 943752 WL150 14505 085 REL 1669N05487W 230709 =

[DESTRUCTION5]

Thinking 11pm NHC will begin to show the NW turn into FL in the 5 day forecast. No modeling continues it further west than the current cone ending day 5.

[Kingarabian]

The problem with evacuating from Irma is that the only way to go in Florida is North.... and Irma is headed the same way. It's a horrific scenario. How far North is considered safe? If the worst case scenario unfolds (she rides up the whole peninsula as a major), there is no place to drive to. Everyone will be fighting to get North, historically nightmarish traffic.

If I were in the Keys, I'd be getting out now. Tomorrow I'm working out my evac options. If the models are the same tomorrow night as they are now, I might need to hit the road on Wednesday. Not going to put up with the masses on Thursday.

This could be making landfall at the beginning of the NFL season...

Buccaneers-Dolphins is looking dicey. 1 PM Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens)

From what I hear, the NFL is considering moving the game up to Thursday night or Friday night.

Thanks for the info.

[GCANE]

Drop just in

945mb

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.

Splash Location: 16.69N 54.87W
Splash Time: 23:10Z

[eastcoastFL]

I'll give you a hint. I had friends that evacuated from Punta Gorda to the Orlando area during Charley.

Their car got trashed by debris.

You'll have to calculate for yourself once the forecast becomes clearer in the next 48 hours.

That's my plan at the moment. My mother and her dog are thinking of driving towards the western Carolinas. We may tag along. If the current models verify then not much of Florida will be too safe. Maybe the pan handle.

FWIW, I've always made reservations in NW Florida, Dothan, AL, even Thomasville, GA. I want to be North and West of maximum intensity. I can always cancel those reservations on Thursday if the storm looks to shift east or miss us completely.

I'm discussing it with my family now. Depending on the track tomorrow we'll try to book something in Georgia or Tennessee.

[GCANE]

[Michele B]

If Irma goes right up the coast of Florida this will be changed state to live here again.

Don't sound so
Dramatic. We've had hurricanes here since
There was a Florida! We'll "weather" it. Pun intended.

[GCANE]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 23:22Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 10 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 23:07:05Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°41'N 54°52'W (16.6833N 54.8667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 401 statute miles (646 km) to the NE (52°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 97kts (~ 111.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the W (263°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 353° at 110kts (From the N at ~ 126.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the W (264°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 945mb (27.91 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,448m (8,031ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,453m (8,048ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 130kts (~ 149.6mph) which was observed 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the N (1°) from the flight level center at 21:45:54Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the ESE (108°) from the flight level center
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 130° at 6kts (From the SE at 7mph)

[BobHarlem]

The problem with evacuating from Irma is that the only way to go in Florida is North.... and Irma is headed the same way. It's a horrific scenario. How far North is considered safe? If the worst case scenario unfolds (she rides up the whole peninsula as a major), there is no place to drive to. Everyone will be fighting to get North, historically nightmarish traffic.

If I were in the Keys, I'd be getting out now. Tomorrow I'm working out my evac options. If the models are the same tomorrow night as they are now, I might need to hit the road on Wednesday. Not going to put up with the masses on Thursday.

Using GFS as guide that really only leaves Turnpike to I-75 to get out (27, 17, I-95, I-75 from naples can be used also, then maybe 98) But it would be a lot of people heading toward the panhandle or Atlanta.

[RL3AO]

I think Kermit is having some intermittent communication issues.

No it's an issue of two NOAA planes transmitting their data on the same header (URNT15 KWBC) about a minute apart. Makes it easy to miss the first set (from Kermit).

[Aric Dunn]

Tail radar catches this image the rapidily deepening eyewall ....

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... OAA-2-.kmz

[SootyTern]

[image deleted]

The next advisory should show the hard right turn beginning per the TVCN, unless the 12z models move farther W... Donna rounded the HP smoothly then had a decent sharp NNE turn, but nothing like the hard right these models show... I'm still going with a smooth WNW, NW, NNW, NNE, NE track, not WNW then N... It seems somewhere just E or W of, or over Florida...

Not liking this at all. I have to assume that will place her off of the tip of Florida sunday am, if not into Florida directly, and just when is she supposed to turn north? The delimna for me is I run a retail booth at a local farmer's market, and my product is meats (stored in a freezer on site). I normally smoke on thursdays, and heat and serve on the weekend (sat/sun),,,ie; jerk pork, jerk chicken.

Why we aren't getting time frames of possibilities of when she might hit is making me a nervous wreck. Even if they are wrong, and it swings into the Gulf, or Atlantic, at least I'd have something to gauge on. Preparing my space at the market has NOT been in my hurricane plans, and it seems to be now... SMH!!!

Is it too early to give guestimates of what we might expect?

Hopefully you got this question answered already but if not, this NHC product is new and seems good for predicting time that you need to complete your preps: http://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=mfl

One graph is earliest possible onset of tropical storm force winds and the adjacent graph is for likely onset of TS force winds.

Also, and I'm probably not telling you anything you already don't know with this, but cook as much of your meat as you can before the storm; it should last longer than raw meat if you go without power for awhile.