ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

That's my plan at the moment. My mother and her dog are thinking of driving towards the western Carolinas. We may tag along. If the current models verify then not much of Florida will be too safe. Maybe the pan handle.

FWIW, I've always made reservations in NW Florida, Dothan, AL, even Thomasville, GA. I want to be North and West of maximum intensity. I can always cancel those reservations on Thursday if the storm looks to shift east or miss us completely.

I have reservations in knoxville...that should be ok right?

If not, we're all toast.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Irma is about to show us a big eye it looks like in the latest IR image. Ruh Roh. Islands are going to experience the worst case, or close to it now.

[RL3AO]

The game is being moved possibly to Friday night. I think they'll issue a decision tomorrow morning.

There will be mandatory evacs by Friday night if the NHC forecast is even close.

[Iune]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/904829634440781827

For the record, this is the 1926 hurricane's track:

[Michele B]

The "hurricane expert" on the Weather Channel scenario just went over about 3 different scenarios which could bring Irma as far west as Texas or as far east as Maine. Basically, it had to do with the strength/weakness and positioning of the trough that may be still be in the mid atlantic to NE U.S. vs the strength and position of the ridge currently to the North and East of Irma.

This was the first time I have heard any met specifically mention the possibility of this hitting Texas. A bit disconcerting to say the least...

I know, I heard it too. I think they don't want to think about it, either....

[1900hurricane]

Not that the Dvorak Technique is needed with constant recon surveillance, but I imagine DTs will surge up to 6.5 in short order (B/WMG). Also, check out the latest Coriolis pass.



*EDIT to correct eye shade.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042346
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 18 20170904
233700 1709N 05432W 6961 03037 9961 +083 +083 144097 099 067 029 03
233730 1710N 05431W 6971 03035 9959 +089 +089 145094 099 069 025 03
233800 1711N 05429W 6980 03035 9978 +087 +087 145091 092 070 019 00
233830 1712N 05428W 6956 03071 9978 +089 +089 143084 091 069 019 03
233900 1713N 05427W 6990 03035 9978 +102 +102 134086 089 059 021 03
233930 1715N 05425W 6962 03072 9988 +094 +094 130083 086 060 008 00
234000 1716N 05424W 6968 03072 9993 +087 +087 127086 088 060 008 03
234030 1717N 05423W 6966 03080 9996 +081 +081 125086 087 058 010 00
234100 1718N 05422W 6968 03080 0001 +076 +076 126088 089 057 010 03
234130 1719N 05421W 6959 03098 0022 +082 +082 123090 093 057 015 03
234200 1720N 05420W 6969 03087 0033 +072 +072 120089 089 052 011 00
234230 1721N 05419W 6959 03106 0026 +069 +068 119088 089 053 005 00
234300 1722N 05418W 6971 03095 0009 +079 +062 120088 088 053 003 00
234330 1723N 05417W 6965 03106 0010 +082 +057 121084 088 053 003 00
234400 1724N 05415W 6967 03108 0017 +080 +058 121081 082 050 005 00
234430 1725N 05414W 6968 03110 0021 +080 +060 122079 081 050 006 00
234500 1726N 05413W 6967 03115 0014 +089 +055 124076 077 049 006 00
234530 1727N 05412W 6964 03122 0018 +088 +055 125072 075 050 004 00
234600 1728N 05411W 6970 03120 0024 +087 +060 127070 072 048 006 00
234630 1729N 05410W 6967 03126 0022 +091 +070 127068 069 048 004 00
$$
;

[SouthDadeFish]

AF drop in eye measured 944 with 12 kt of sfc. wind so 943 mb. The eye dropsonde also measured some subsidence warming in the eye with a slight inversion near 800 mb. Looks like the inner-core structure is improving.

[dixiebreeze]

Florida Gov. Scott has today declared a State of Emergency for all Florida Counties.

[eastcoastFL]

looks like the deepening is happening fast !

232930 1655N 05448W 6980 02775 9653 +118 //// 120131 135 110 030 05
233000 1655N 05448W 6949 02823 9664 +119 //// 122129 132 111 034 05
233030 1655N 05447W 6970 02823 9701 +109 //// 125130 132 108 039 01
233100 1656N 05446W 6962 02857 9727 +108 +108 129125 129 105 026 00
233130 1657N 05445W 6964 02884 9747 +113 +113 128117 122 101 015 00

would up winds to 135 to 140 maybe..

Do you happen to know of any document or website that might show how the recon data is formatted? I've been able to read the coordinates and pressure readings in these posts, but I can't make sense of much more.

A met posted in the recon thread yesterday explaining how to decipher recon data.

[johngaltfla]

The game is being moved possibly to Friday night. I think they'll issue a decision tomorrow morning.

There will be mandatory evacs by Friday night if the NHC forecast is even close.

Agreed. I think the game gets moved to their bye week in week 11 or possibly to Atlanta for Sunday.

There are more important issues than a football game on Sunday to deal with. Not many as I am a huge Bucs fan, but this is right up there.

[Iune]

looks like the deepening is happening fast !

232930 1655N 05448W 6980 02775 9653 +118 //// 120131 135 110 030 05
233000 1655N 05448W 6949 02823 9664 +119 //// 122129 132 111 034 05
233030 1655N 05447W 6970 02823 9701 +109 //// 125130 132 108 039 01
233100 1656N 05446W 6962 02857 9727 +108 +108 129125 129 105 026 00
233130 1657N 05445W 6964 02884 9747 +113 +113 128117 122 101 015 00

would up winds to 135 to 140 maybe..

Do you happen to know of any document or website that might show how the recon data is formatted? I've been able to read the coordinates and pressure readings in these posts, but I can't make sense of much more.

A met posted in the recon thread yesterday explaining how to decipher recon data.

Thank you

[galaxy401]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
800 PM AST Mon Sep 04 2017

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRMA HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...PREPARATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 55.0W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES

[RL3AO]

At 120 kts, Irma now the strongest hurricane of the season.

[Kazmit]

Bigger eye starting to show now.

[Exalt]

I would not be surprised in the slightest if this went to a Cat 5 by tomorrow morning. There's really nothing stopping Irma, right now at least.

[1900hurricane]

Assuming that 120 kt is used for the 00Z best track, that will push Irma above 20 units of ACE.

[RL3AO]

Do you happen to know of any document or website that might show how the recon data is formatted? I've been able to read the coordinates and pressure readings in these posts, but I can't make sense of much more.

A met posted in the recon thread yesterday explaining how to decipher recon data.

Thank you

viewtopic.php?p=2622896#p2622896

[Exalt]

At 120 kts, Irma now the strongest hurricane of the season.

Not to nitpick, but if we're being official here, for right now Harvey is still the strongest at 938mb.

[GCANE]

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
741 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

The chances of South Florida seeing some impacts from Irma later
this week are increasing. It is still too early to forecast where
Irma`s path will go. Models will continue to change and we will have
to watch for emerging trends and what potential impacts could emerge
with Irma. At this point, the best bet for South Floridians is to
make a hurricane plan, gather their hurricane kit, and continue to
monitor the progress of Irma as we head through the week.