ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Here is that little drop on last pass.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Nope...map skills aren't working tonight lol

Not even going to show us what you came up with?

Let me try this another way...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Code: Select all

Hurricane Andrew's Unofficial Forecast
00HRS - 17.4N 50.3W / 115mph
24HRS - 16.5N 54.0W / 125mph
48HRS - 17.3N 58.5W / 125mph
72HRS - 18.9N 63.0W / 130mph
96HRS - 20.4N 68.7W / 140mph
120HRS - 22.1N 73.4W / 150mph


Code: Select all

24 HR Verification
P24: 16.5 N 54.0W 125mph
A24: 16.7 N 55.6W 140mph

Ouch

[NJWxHurricane]

irma moving due west with a slight north wobble
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050326
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 40 20170905
031700 1600N 05627W 6965 03105 9979 +103 +096 320052 054 043 002 00
031730 1558N 05628W 6970 03105 9989 +100 +087 321047 050 043 001 00
031800 1557N 05630W 6967 03112 9999 +093 +087 326050 052 042 002 00
031830 1556N 05631W 6969 03113 0003 +093 +090 317047 050 042 002 00
031900 1555N 05632W 6965 03119 0009 +092 +083 311041 045 041 002 00
031930 1553N 05634W 6966 03123 0018 +089 +083 314040 041 039 002 01
032000 1552N 05635W 6964 03128 0011 +099 +063 308042 042 039 002 00
032030 1551N 05636W 6966 03129 0018 +097 +063 309042 042 038 002 00
032100 1550N 05637W 6963 03136 0020 +098 +065 312045 047 038 001 00
032130 1549N 05639W 6967 03134 0020 +101 +063 317048 049 039 001 00
032200 1547N 05640W 6967 03135 0024 +099 +066 316046 049 036 001 00
032230 1546N 05641W 6967 03136 0028 +096 +069 316044 044 037 000 00
032300 1545N 05642W 6964 03140 0028 +096 +071 315043 044 036 000 00
032330 1544N 05644W 6969 03138 0024 +102 +064 314039 042 034 000 00
032400 1542N 05645W 6970 03139 0029 +102 +049 309040 040 035 000 00
032430 1541N 05646W 6966 03145 0033 +100 +049 313041 041 033 001 00
032500 1540N 05648W 6968 03143 0034 +100 +049 316041 042 033 000 00
032530 1539N 05649W 6967 03145 0035 +100 +049 319041 042 033 000 00
032600 1538N 05650W 6969 03143 0035 +100 +050 317039 040 031 001 00
032630 1536N 05651W 6970 03143 0039 +097 +050 321040 040 031 001 00
$$
;

[ScottNAtlanta]

Its really progressed today

[eastcoastFL]

Not even going to show us what you came up with?

Let me try this another way...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Code: Select all

Hurricane Andrew's Unofficial Forecast
00HRS - 17.4N 50.3W / 115mph
24HRS - 16.5N 54.0W / 125mph
48HRS - 17.3N 58.5W / 125mph
72HRS - 18.9N 63.0W / 130mph
96HRS - 20.4N 68.7W / 140mph
120HRS - 22.1N 73.4W / 150mph


Code: Select all

24 HR Verification
P24: 16.5 N 54.0W 125mph
A24: 16.7 N 55.6W 140mph

Ouch

Are you going to do an updated forecast?

[sponger]

There's no water in Florida. I can confirm from Palm Beach County. We are on our own.

There was also a shortage of bread, but not for the Publix closest to me which still has some as far as I know. I'm sure/hope that they will restock in time this week depending on the forecast and if there are evacuation orders issued.

I was at the Sam's Club and Publix on Dunn Ave this afternoon...Sam's was out of water but had plenty of bread and other items. Publix had water and bread - they even had BOGO Pumpkin Spice Pepperidge Farms bread! So guess what I have now? Sam's had a ton of batteries - but I had a hard time finding the C size (finally did). Hubby started the generator and did whatever you guys do to make mechanical things run smoothly - so we are good there. With Matthew last year, we were without power for over a week. We are in a Evacuation Zone C (because of Thomas Creek behind our home).

I'm having my Hubby's Retirement Party at our home on Saturday. Irma is NOT invited! I'm still making plans for that but have a watchful eye on Irma.

Should make it for winds. Preps is another story.

[Aric Dunn]

irma moving due west with a slight north wobble
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

you mean slight wsw wobble

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 050318
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 05/02:59:50Z
B. 16 deg 39 min N
055 deg 47 min W
C. 700 mb 2591 m
D. 126 kt
E. 042 deg 15 nm
F. 134 deg 133 kt
G. 043 deg 17 nm
H. 943 mb
I. 11 C / 3050 m
J. 15 C / 3051 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C25
N. 1234 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 0611A IRMA OB 17
MAX FL WIND 133 KT 043 / 17 NM 02:55:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 220 / 11 KT
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 040 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[sponger]

I don't always stay up to watch the 00z GFS runs, but when I do I prefer Heineken.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Let me try this another way...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Code: Select all

Hurricane Andrew's Unofficial Forecast
00HRS - 17.4N 50.3W / 115mph
24HRS - 16.5N 54.0W / 125mph
48HRS - 17.3N 58.5W / 125mph
72HRS - 18.9N 63.0W / 130mph
96HRS - 20.4N 68.7W / 140mph
120HRS - 22.1N 73.4W / 150mph


Code: Select all

24 HR Verification
P24: 16.5 N 54.0W 125mph
A24: 16.7 N 55.6W 140mph

Ouch

Are you going to do an updated forecast?

Tomorrow.

[FLeastcoast]

do you guys think that west GA would be far enough in to get away from Irma...or is GA a possible target also?

[Cunxi Huang]

based on the latest recon data, i would say IRMA is now an intermediate level Cat 4 (125 kt / 942 mb)

[Orlando]

eyewall convection continues to deepen and expand and is in all quads.. wont be long until the pressure and winds respond..

Aric, does that mean that the pressure will drop? I'm starting to feel a little bit of pressure in my hip now. Just wondering if it is due to that or because it is getting closer or because it has finished its sw movement.

[eastcoastFL]

do you guys think that west GA would be far enough in to get away from Irma...or is GA a possible target also?

Northwest Georgia looks like a solid option. Might be where I end up.

[sponger]

do you guys think that west GA would be far enough in to get away from Irma...or is GA a possible target also?

West Ga should be fine unless it comes in at the Big Bend. Unlikely but not impossible.

[Exalt]

do you guys think that west GA would be far enough in to get away from Irma...or is GA a possible target also?

All depends on when the northern turn occurs, no part of the Gulf Coast is safe until this thing curves up.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050336
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 41 20170905
032700 1535N 05653W 6966 03147 0042 +096 +051 323039 040 031 000 00
032730 1534N 05654W 6971 03144 0042 +096 +051 320037 039 031 000 00
032800 1533N 05655W 6965 03149 0041 +095 +052 321036 036 029 000 00
032830 1531N 05657W 6965 03151 0037 +102 +051 320036 037 029 000 00
032900 1530N 05658W 6962 03155 0033 +105 +054 322037 038 029 001 00
032930 1529N 05659W 6965 03152 0029 +108 +049 323037 038 029 000 00
033000 1527N 05701W 6967 03150 0030 +110 +045 323037 037 028 001 00
033030 1526N 05702W 6970 03149 0035 +107 +045 321035 036 029 000 00
033100 1525N 05703W 6966 03153 0035 +106 +045 325035 036 028 001 00
033130 1524N 05705W 6967 03153 0041 +103 +048 326035 036 029 001 00
033200 1522N 05706W 6965 03157 0042 +103 +050 324034 035 030 000 00
033230 1521N 05707W 6963 03158 0050 +093 +061 323034 034 028 001 03
033300 1519N 05706W 6968 03153 //// +085 //// 321033 035 /// /// 05
033330 1519N 05704W 6974 03149 0049 +096 +056 320031 032 026 000 00
033400 1519N 05702W 6966 03155 0044 +100 +051 319032 032 030 000 00
033430 1519N 05700W 6967 03151 0037 +105 +048 316032 032 030 000 00
033500 1519N 05658W 6967 03149 0035 +105 +048 317032 032 030 001 00
033530 1519N 05656W 6967 03151 0035 +105 +047 315032 032 029 001 00
033600 1519N 05654W 6969 03147 0035 +104 +047 314033 033 030 000 00
033630 1519N 05652W 6967 03149 0033 +105 +046 313033 033 031 000 00
$$
;

[JaxGator]

Irma is really strengthening tonight as it approaches the Leewards per Recon and satellite. Really impressive and (not to mention dangerous) classic hurricane. Preps should be rushed to completion in the time y'all down there still have.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050346
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 42 20170905
033700 1519N 05650W 6964 03152 0033 +105 +047 308033 033 031 000 00
033730 1519N 05648W 6969 03145 0032 +105 +047 305033 033 032 000 00
033800 1519N 05646W 6967 03147 0031 +105 +046 301033 033 030 000 00
033830 1519N 05644W 6966 03146 0030 +105 +046 299032 033 030 000 00
033900 1519N 05642W 6967 03144 0028 +104 +048 297033 033 031 000 00
033930 1519N 05640W 6967 03142 0032 +100 +050 296033 033 031 001 00
034000 1519N 05638W 6967 03141 0030 +100 +052 295033 034 031 001 00
034030 1519N 05636W 6967 03140 0030 +100 +052 291034 034 032 000 00
034100 1519N 05634W 6967 03140 0029 +100 +053 290034 035 032 000 00
034130 1519N 05631W 6967 03139 0030 +097 +053 290035 035 034 000 00
034200 1519N 05629W 6965 03141 0030 +098 +052 288035 035 032 001 00
034230 1519N 05627W 6966 03140 0028 +100 +052 286035 035 033 000 00
034300 1519N 05625W 6969 03138 0028 +101 +051 284034 035 032 001 00
034330 1519N 05623W 6965 03141 0022 +105 +048 280033 034 032 001 00
034400 1519N 05621W 6969 03135 0020 +105 +046 279034 035 036 001 00
034430 1519N 05619W 6965 03140 0020 +105 +046 279035 036 036 001 00
034500 1519N 05617W 6966 03139 0016 +106 +047 277036 036 036 001 00
034530 1519N 05614W 6969 03134 0027 +097 +054 280039 045 037 002 03
034600 1519N 05612W 6969 03129 0060 +091 +091 262039 045 039 017 03
034630 1519N 05610W 6963 03139 //// +097 //// 282035 037 043 005 01
$$
;