ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronyan]

I'll go 927 mb on the next recon.

[CrazyC83]

Four hours until the next center fix. I'll predict 932 mb.

I will predict 920mb and category 5.

18 mb in 4 hours?

Yes, I think this is the main RI'ing period.

[Langinbang187]

933 next recon.

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 SEP 2017 Time : 041500 UTC
Lat : 16:39:38 N Lon : 55:59:04 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 932.8mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +8.9C Cloud Region Temp : -73.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.3 degrees

[FireRat]

I'll go with 931 mb for the next fix

[Evenstar]

Its a personal decision but I would stay unless on coast and getting surge or peak eyewall. This will lose some steam and I would be shocked if you had anything above Cat2. Evac has risk as well so do not let panic get the better of you.

according to the GFS run, which appears to be way over doing the intensity, but if it verified, and that of course is a big if we in orlando would be just a few Miles east of the center (dirty side) of a 941mb hurricane. Again if that verified we could be getting strong cat three gusts. But regardless I think you'd be fine staying away from windows- but the aftermath would be worse- no power for days, difficulty getting out and about, just a few crowded gas stations open, etc. very limited food options, etc.

I'm going to find a friend to stay with so I'm not alone since spouse is going to be staying in Disney's Animal Kingdom for 72 hours should they activate the ride out crews.

I hope Disney has better back up systems than Jurassic Park...

[Chris90]

I'm thinking 929 mb for the next recon fix.

[CrazyC83]

I too think this is about to hit cat 5 within the next few hours.

Based off current trends and the models, it's looking like Harvey and Irma are an old married couple. Back to back retirements. I really hope not though.

Thoughts and prayers for all those in the path. I hope everyone is prepared and have their plan in place. Irma is looking determined.

There have only been seven back-to-back retirements among named storms:

1955 - Connie and Diane
1955 - Ione and Janet
1964 - Cleo and Dora
1995 - Luis and Marilyn
2003 - Isabel and Juan
2004 - Ivan and Jeanne
2005 - Rita and Stan

There have never been three consecutive retirements though.

[Aric Dunn]

Four hours until the next center fix. I'll predict 932 mb.

I will predict 920mb and category 5.

18 mb in 4 hours?

its possible..

[Sciencerocks]

Four hours until the next center fix. I'll predict 932 mb.

yeah, with that convection developing could be a lot lower..

I think this is pulling a Katrina but east of the islands. It should look similar too with a large eye!

I'll predict 925mb by 8am est and 930mb by next recon. I don't dare predict lower but it could.

[CrazyC83]

Four hours until the next center fix. I'll predict 932 mb.

yeah, with that convection developing could be a lot lower..

I think this is pulling a Katrina but east of the islands. It should look similar too with a large eye!

I'll predict 925mb by 8am est and 930mb by next recon. I don't dare predict lower but it could.

If this is intensifying really early, this could end up struggling a bit in the days ahead due to so many ERC's and structural issues?

[1900hurricane]

I might be getting a little nit-picky with regards to structure, but something still doesn't look/seem quite right to me. The eye has still failed to completely clear out and become perfectly circular and the coldest clout tops are having a hard time rotating into the north side of the CDO. I wonder if some residual dry air managed to munch into the northern eyewall just a little bit. Not by much or enough to open the eyewall, but enough to weaken it a little bit. The METOP-B pass from a little while back did show the northern eyewall as the weakest portion with some dry air nearby. Regardless, it'll probably just slow the rate of intensification a slight bit.

[RL3AO]

If this is intensifying really early, this could end up struggling a bit in the days ahead due to so many ERC's and structural issues?

I think it's gonna fluctuate between 120kts or so during EWRCs and make runs at cat 5 after completing them.

[NDG]

I might be getting a little nit-picky with regards to structure, but something still doesn't look/seem quite right to me. The eye has still failed to completely clear out and become perfectly circular and the coldest clout tops are having a hard time rotating into the north side of the CDO. I wonder if some residual dry air managed to munch into the northern eyewall just a little bit. Not by much or enough to open the eyewall, but enough to weaken it a little bit. The METOP-B pass from a little while back did show the northern eyewall as the weakest portion with some dry air nearby. Regardless, it'll probably just slow the rate of intensification a slight bit.

https://i.imgur.com/gzWOMSz.jpg

Hard to agree when the image is more than 4 hours old, it could had changed by now.

[Aric Dunn]

too bad recon is headed home.. really would have like to see the progreassion.. oh well.

[Bocadude85]

Hurricane conditions now showing up in my extended range forecast from the NWS Miami

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=264&y=87&site=mfl&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=264&map_y=87#.Wa42FNEpDxw

[1900hurricane]

I think I'll go in the 935-938 mb range for the next fix.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

I always buy 1900hurricane's analysis, don't see many better anywhere on the net.

[tropicwatch]

The northern eye wall does appear to have some weakness but wow, overall Irma is getting its act together.

[wxmann_91]

I might be getting a little nit-picky with regards to structure, but something still doesn't look/seem quite right to me. The eye has still failed to completely clear out and become perfectly circular and the coldest clout tops are having a hard time rotating into the north side of the CDO. I wonder if some residual dry air managed to munch into the northern eyewall just a little bit. Not by much or enough to open the eyewall, but enough to weaken it a little bit. The METOP-B pass from a little while back did show the northern eyewall as the weakest portion with some dry air nearby. Regardless, it'll probably just slow the rate of intensification a slight bit.

[im g]https://i.imgur.com/gzWOMSz.jpg[/img]

This. Irma hasn't been able to clear the eye out yet, perhaps because of this reason. It will strengthen, but this might prevent a full run at Cat 5 or RI tonight.

Also, any weaknesses in the current eyewall might hasten the start of the next ERC.