ATL: IRMA - Models

[caneseddy]

Landfall near Ft. Meyers(?)

Broward and Miami-Dade are in for it on the NE quadrant.

Looks like Naples/Marco Island

And yes metro south Florida is going to take it on th chin

[otowntiger]

Can someone post the graphic please?

[Langinbang187]

Don't think so, hasn't traversed through the shredder...

If it rides Cuba for an extended period of time, it won't matter. Weakening will most certainly occur if this track were to come to fruition.

Weakening would occur but it would likely wind back up assuming good upper level conditions in the straits. Dennis left Cuba as a cat 1 and was a cat 4 as it passed west of Tampa. At peak season things escalate quickly. I was swimming in the Gulf today and it is blood warm as it usually is on Labor day.

We'll see what happens should this run actually verify (unlikely) if the core were to become disrupted it would definitely take some time to rebuild itself up.

[AdamFirst]

Can someone post the graphic please?

It's on the prior page.

[otowntiger]

Miami Dade might be out of the woods for a direct hit if the models keep shifting west, ridging is stronger to the north of Irma as tracks close to the Greater Antilles on each consecutive run.

Yes but then Tampa perhaps getting in on the action, and that would be no bueno.

[CourierPR]

Miami Dade might be out of the woods for a direct hit if the models keep shifting west, ridging is stronger to the north of Irma as tracks close to the Greater Antilles on each consecutive run.

Obviously, that ridging breaks down significantly for it to make that north turn from Cuba.

[northjaxpro]

Folks, all tonight's 0Z run of EURO did was only re-affirm that the state is going to be in for catastrophic damage . No major changes at all. Just even more worse news. Slight west shift continues. Very bad news for us here in the state.

[lando]

Miami Dade might be out of the woods for a direct hit if the models keep shifting west, ridging is stronger to the north of Irma as tracks close to the Greater Antilles on each consecutive run.

Yes but then Tampa perhaps getting in on the action, and that would be no bueno.

depending on the angle tampa would possibly flood worse than harvey

[NDG]

Miami Dade might be out of the woods for a direct hit if the models keep shifting west, ridging is stronger to the north of Irma as tracks close to the Greater Antilles on each consecutive run.

Yes but then Tampa perhaps getting in on the action, and that would be no bueno.

Who knows, it might end up making landfall across the FL Panhandle if ridging keeps trending stronger east of FL.

[Kingarabian]

What's the chances that this Ike's or Katrina's?

We can no longer rule any solution out.

[northjaxpro]

Or NDG the Big Bend area around Cedar Key if the west shifts keep coming ...

[AutoPenalti]

What's the chances that this Ike's or Katrina's?

We can no longer rule any solution out.

Don't think so, we are pretty close to the timeframe and we have new data that went in.

GFS has the ridge a tad weaker but a gradual WNW/NW turn, the Euro had it stronger, hence the Cuba interaction, then it abruptly turns it North.

[USTropics]

Last 8 runs of the GFS ensembles:

[AdamFirst]

Recap of various runs tonight:

GFS - Cuba coastline rider (no landfall), turn north into Upper Keys & southern tip of Florida peninsula, cuts through spine of state.
EURO - Graze landfall & interaction with northern Cuba, hard turn north into lower-middle Keys and southern tip of Florida peninsula, cuts through spine of state.
UKMET - Landfall & interaction with central Cuba, run ends with sudden northern trajectory towards the east side of the Florida peninsula (probable miss) - eastern "outlier"
HWRF - steady WNW heading avoiding Cuba, run ends after landfall on Andros Island, Bahamas in Gulf Stream waters approaching upper Keys/South Dade.
CMC - Dive-bombs through central Cuba and into the Caribbean, turning north at western tip of Cuba and heading toward Pensacola/FL Panhandle - western outlier

[Blinhart]

Up the spine.

Looks like she is trying to split in two there.

[Jonny]

If it does get close to the GOM/panhandle, what kind of winds would y’all suspect?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

There are just too many models with Florida in the crosshairs now.

[northjaxpro]

Well, last year, Hermine broke our Florida 11 year drought of a direct landfall from a hurricane in the Big Bend area of the state.

It is unfortunately pretty much likely now that Irma is going to end our 12 year streak of no major hurricane landfalls in a devastating way.

We have been so extremely fortunate these past dozen years. However, it likely appears that our luck is about to run out.!! Good night/morning everyone. Long days ahead dealing with this monster cyclone!

[Blinhart]

What's the chances that this Ike's or Katrina's?

We can no longer rule any solution out.

Can't forget, Andrew and Lili

[USTropics]

Comparison between the operational 00z ECMWF and 00z GFS in high-resolution at landfall:

00z ECMWF


00z GFS