ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
shawn6304
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 39
Joined: Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:14 pm
Location: Deerfield Beach Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3701 Postby shawn6304 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:48 am

jlauderdal wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:NHC has been using the Fl straights as a holding cell for Irma the last 3 advisories at 120hr. I would think they have to shift NE on next to show the turn into FL. Especially with the GFS well east.
its one run of the gfs, i doubt they bend it that hard to make landfall on the peninsula...if the euro shows an east trend then yes at 5 pm they will bend it



Hello ,

I am confused by this post, hasn't the GFS shown a peninsula hit the last 5 or 6 runs? sorry if i missed something i am trying to keep up
0 likes   

User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 4024
Age: 61
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: Ballston Spa, New York
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3702 Postby AJC3 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:48 am

WTNT61 KNHC 051147
TCUAT1

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
745 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

...HURRICANE IRMA BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE...

NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate Hurricane
Irma has intensified into an extremely dangerous Category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum
winds of 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. A special advisory
will be issued at 800 AM AST (1200 UTC) in lieu of the scheduled
intermediate advisory for Irma.


SUMMARY OF 745 AM AST...1145 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 57.7W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Landsea
1 likes   

User avatar
bg1
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 409
Joined: Fri May 13, 2011 11:14 am
Location: near Santee, SC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3703 Postby bg1 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:48 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:Air Force just measured 158-kt flight-level and 154-kt SFMR in NE eyewall. This is well above threshold for cat 5. Horrible.


Yipes :double:
The FL winds seem low given the SFMR, or is this a feature of intense storms?
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3704 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:49 am

Special advisory indeed on the way
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 16082
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3705 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:50 am

Ntxw wrote:Those wind numbers makes Irma the strongest Cyclone in 2017 on earth


If those sub 900 pressures from the GFS verify, how high will Irma's winds be? 200mph plus?
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2134
Age: 22
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Bermuda

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3706 Postby Kazmit » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:50 am

So terrifying...

Image
0 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20036
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3707 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:52 am

11:38z
Image
3 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3863
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Recon Discussion Thread

#3708 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:52 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:NOAA says 171 kt max-flight level on VDM.... Considering Air Force SFMR of 154 kt, this is probably a 155 kt hurricane. Incredible.

000
URNT12 KWBC 051129
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 05/11:10:54Z
B. 16 deg 42 min N
057 deg 41 min W
C. NA
D. 110 kt
E. 188 deg 12 nm
F. 297 deg 120 kt
G. 189 deg 17 nm
H. 930 mb
I. 14 C / 2453 m
J. 21 C / 2412 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C23
N. 12345 / NA
O. 0.1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 0711A IRMA OB 10
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 171 KT 024 / 19 NM 11:16:47Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 012 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 265 / 10 KTS

Oh my God. How astonishing. Didn't expect this at all, hoping everyone throughout the Northern Antilles is safe and well-informed about the forecoming threat.

Pressure relatively high at 930 mb.

Image
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11637
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3709 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:52 am

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 11:45Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 11:19:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°40'N 57°42'W (16.6667N 57.7W)
B. Center Fix Location: 262 statute miles (422 km) to the ENE (69°) from Roseau, Dominica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,481m (8,140ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 107kts (~ 123.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the SSW (204°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 304° at 116kts (From between the WNW and NW at ~ 133.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SSW (206°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 930mb (27.47 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,039m (9,970ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 158kts (~ 181.8mph) which was observed 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NE (39°) from the flight level center at 11:26:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 115° at 12kts (From the ESE at 14mph)
0 likes   

User avatar
BlowHard
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 48
Age: 66
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:15 pm
Location: Vieques, PR/Swansea, MA
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3710 Postby BlowHard » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:52 am

Arsynic wrote:
WAcyclone wrote:First visible:

Image

Good Morning, beautiful...


Beautiful? Sure wish I had the luxury of that emotion. This storm is about to blow apart the world of millions down here. In PR, we have been told to expect to be without electricity for up to three months.
2 likes   
I am not a professional and this is just my opinion. Always refer to the professionals for advice.

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22796
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3711 Postby Ntxw » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:53 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Those wind numbers makes Irma the strongest Cyclone in 2017 on earth


If those sub 900 pressures from the GFS verify, how high will Irma's winds be? 200mph plus?


Maybe 190mph? I don't know if I quite believe the sub 900 numbers though. Still she's quite intense.

But looking at larger scale her cloud tops are not the coldest I've seen compared to in other basins. If this thing is 150kts+ with these color temps on BD, you just have to wonder what recon would find on the Pacific side. But I'm not sure if the wind connection is similar over there.
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 16082
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3712 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:53 am

tolakram wrote:11:38z
[img]https://i.imgur.com/jRBkspv.png[/mg]


Definition of horror.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

invest man
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 208
Joined: Sun Aug 17, 2008 8:12 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3713 Postby invest man » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:55 am

GFS has been showing for days a very intense storm with winds and pressure being where it is now. Most of us could not really buy into it thinking it was in fantasy land. However a question for us is would the stronger lower pressure allow it the more probability to be more or less influenced by the trough and kick it more east or not be influenced at all by the trough and continue more westerly. Perhaps the strength of the storm is why GFS is showing a slight eastern path now. Just an observation.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20036
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3714 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:55 am

shawn6304 wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:NHC has been using the Fl straights as a holding cell for Irma the last 3 advisories at 120hr. I would think they have to shift NE on next to show the turn into FL. Especially with the GFS well east.
its one run of the gfs, i doubt they bend it that hard to make landfall on the peninsula...if the euro shows an east trend then yes at 5 pm they will bend it



Hello ,

I am confused by this post, hasn't the GFS shown a peninsula hit the last 5 or 6 runs? sorry if i missed something i am trying to keep up


It's been on or close for the last 2 days (it runs 4 times a day). The blend is still up in the air, especially since the GFS at that range had significant errors this year. UKMET is now east of Florida, Euro still hits Florida very similar to the GFS. Need to get a few days closer to be sure.
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2456
Age: 26
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3715 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:55 am

Another early morning VIS satellite image...

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 16082
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: IRMA - Recon Discussion Thread

#3716 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:55 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:NOAA says 171 kt max-flight level on VDM.... Considering Air Force SFMR of 154 kt, this is probably a 155 kt hurricane. Incredible.

000
URNT12 KWBC 051129
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 05/11:10:54Z
B. 16 deg 42 min N
057 deg 41 min W
C. NA
D. 110 kt
E. 188 deg 12 nm
F. 297 deg 120 kt
G. 189 deg 17 nm
H. 930 mb
I. 14 C / 2453 m
J. 21 C / 2412 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C23
N. 12345 / NA
O. 0.1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 0711A IRMA OB 10
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 171 KT 024 / 19 NM 11:16:47Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 012 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 265 / 10 KTS


This one will be for the books SouthDadeFish. Hopefully it'll be the last impressive VDM we'll ever see from Irma.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
WAcyclone
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 352
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2017 1:56 pm
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3717 Postby WAcyclone » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:55 am

There have only been six recorded Atlantic hurricanes stronger than Irma: Allen, Labor Day, Gilbert, Rita, Wilma and Mitch.
1 likes   

OntarioEggplant
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 312
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2016 11:16 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3718 Postby OntarioEggplant » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:57 am

Wow... Utterly amazing. Here I was making comparisons to Luis when this could be much worse than Luis in the islands. Hoping for the best for the people down there.

I'm pretty sure Irma is the strongest hurricane outside of the Gulf or Caribbean for many years now. I can't recall a category 5 hurricane with those wind speeds east of the islands... The closest I get is Hugo, but I don't think Hugo reached 175.

Irma's satellite presentation is gorgeous as well. It's unfortunate that it will inevitably cause great destruction.
1 likes   

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3863
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3719 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:57 am

Is it tue stronger storms tend to follow the ridge more and are less suspectible to be easily pulled off by the trough?
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

User avatar
DelrayMorris
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 95
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2003 11:51 pm
Location: Delray Beach, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3720 Postby DelrayMorris » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:58 am

My heart goes out to the people on the Islands... No matter where it goes later or how intense it gets... they are going to experience 175 mph as it probably won't see an ERC before it gets there.

The loss of life it going to be horrific.
1 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot] and 6 guests