#3756 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:37 am
Thoughts and prayers to all those in the islands this morning. I hope that everyone has done all they can to prepare. Have not seen this perfectly developed a storm since Rita or Gilbert. Despite all the modeled intensities I am somewhat hopeful of a few things
1. Models still don't forecast intensity well- NHC forecasting skill beats the pants off models in that regard. So it's very possible shear or dry air, can weaken Irma
2. The statistics on CAT5 hurricanes are they don't stay CAT5 for relatively long periods so it now that we are there the likelihood it will weaken is going up
3. Although this the most fearsome storm in long time, a weakening hurricane is always better than strengthening one at landfall. CAT5 is CAT5 and catastrophic, and please, I get that.
4. The Lesser Antilles is under the gun here, but there is really good chance this weakens through the land interactions to come ( I don't buy it threading the needle on all the islands)
5. That Miami and South Florida emergency officials have staged evacuations well, it's better to get folks off the coast no matter how disruptive at this point- Irma is not a storm to trifle with < 120 hours out
Everyone stay safe, which means err on the side of caution!
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