ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sanibel]

I would bet by tomorrow that NHC shifts east again...This is causing me huge grief with hysterical family members who are calling and worried about my mother...These people are acting on 2 day old information and don't realize the rational call here that is quickly turning in to a safer call to stay than go...

[Janie2006]

Radar trend seems to indicate slightly north of due west. We need a more northerly component to the storm motion if PR is to avoid a major hit.

[NJWxHurricane]

I would bet by tomorrow that NHC shifts east again...This is causing me huge grief with hysterical family members who are calling and worried about my mother...These people are acting on 2 day old information and don't realize the rational call here that is quickly turning in to a safer call to stay than go...

nothing is set in stone yet sir

[Tireman4]

Live feed from Irma hitting the islands...


https://www.facebook.com/titohernandezrd/

[NJWxHurricane]

Radar trend seems to indicate slightly north of due west. We need a more northerly component to the storm motion if PR is to avoid a major hit.

seeing more north wobbles now, PR might be saved

[jdjaguar]

I would bet by tomorrow that NHC shifts east again...This is causing me huge grief with hysterical family members who are calling and worried about my mother...These people are acting on 2 day old information and don't realize the rational call here that is quickly turning in to a safer call to stay than go...

todays runs are all-important.

11;30 GFS
1:45 Euro

(I think)

[sponger]

Live feed from Irma hitting the islands...


https://www.facebook.com/titohernandezrd/

Awesome feed! Someone forgot to close the hatchback. Better leave it open for now.

[plasticup]

I would bet by tomorrow that NHC shifts east again...This is causing me huge grief with hysterical family members who are calling and worried about my mother...These people are acting on 2 day old information and don't realize the rational call here that is quickly turning in to a safer call to stay than go...

If you are reassuring anyone in Florida, you are being incredibly reckless. They are in the cone. I don't give a damn what the latest model run shows - that's not how the models are meant to be used.

[NDG]

I am not expecting the new track coming out in an hour to shift that much to the right. Fox35 just interviewed Dr Brennan from the NHC, he said that shifting the track by 50-100 miles at this point does not make sense when the error at day 5 is so huge.

[Bamagirl2408]

Radar loop from PR shows almost a due west heading, hopefully it will start turning soon.
But unfortunately a direct hit to the Virgin Islands is almost a guarantee now.

I seriously cannot see it missing PR. But Im just a girl from Alabama.

[Ken711]

I have been wondering about how the intensity of a strong Cat 5 is affected once it makes landfall. Do they typically drop in steps like Cat 3 to 2 to 1 than tropical storm?

[Hurricaneman]

This is well south of the forecast

[Ken711]

This is well south of the forecast

Can you tell if it's due south or southwest?

[Extratropical94]

I have been wondering about how the intensity of a strong Cat 5 is affected once it makes landfall. Do they typically drop in steps like Cat 3 to 2 to 1 than tropical storm?

The winds decrease gradually, so depending on the terrain and how fast it is moving inland you will get Cat 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, TS, TD for a few hours each. You might not see every category get their own update from the NHC because they only do intermediate advisories every 3 hours.

[NJWxHurricane]

This is well south of the forecast

post it

[CourierPR]

I would bet by tomorrow that NHC shifts east again...This is causing me huge grief with hysterical family members who are calling and worried about my mother...These people are acting on 2 day old information and don't realize the rational call here that is quickly turning in to a safer call to stay than go...

If you are reassuring anyone in Florida, you are being incredibly reckless. They are in the cone. I don't give a damn what the latest model run shows - that's not how the models are meant to be used.

Thank you! People who rely on the latest model runs instead of the NHC and local emergency statements need to calm down. Prepare but don't panic!

[KBBOCA]

This is a helpful graphic. It's the ECMWF 00z wind probability map for MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE winds in the US.

Even if the center track shifts a bit further east, Irma is a BIG storm. Impacts felt far away from center. FL & East coast still very much in the crosshairs for a major storm unless something changes dramatically in next 4 days.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905430969313841152

[Hurricane Andrew]

IR presentation looks quite poor, I believe we may see an EWRC/weakening phase soon. I am no pro.

[Extratropical94]

AF305 has reached Irma and descended to operational altitude.

URNT15 KNHC 061417
AF305 1311A IRMA HDOB 11 20170906
140730 1633N 06503W 6062 04309 0096 +009 -031 302024 027 /// /// 03
140800 1635N 06502W 6173 04159 0091 +021 -049 311025 028 /// /// 03
140830 1637N 06501W 6287 04007 0058 +048 -045 312025 028 /// /// 03
140900 1639N 06500W 6408 03852 0056 +057 -036 299028 029 /// /// 03
140930 1641N 06458W 6519 03708 0064 +061 -042 295025 027 /// /// 03
141000 1643N 06457W 6627 03574 0064 +068 -031 296026 028 /// /// 03
141030 1645N 06456W 6744 03425 0051 +084 -033 299029 030 /// /// 03
141100 1646N 06455W 6858 03285 0062 +084 -023 307028 030 /// /// 03
141130 1648N 06453W 6950 03167 0052 +095 -029 322025 027 /// /// 03
141200 1650N 06452W 6982 03132 0056 +095 -020 319029 031 /// /// 03
141230 1651N 06451W 6961 03152 0047 +095 -016 318031 032 /// /// 03
141300 1653N 06450W 6969 03144 0051 +094 -033 321031 032 /// /// 03
141330 1654N 06450W 6967 03144 0051 +093 -029 320031 032 /// /// 06
141400 1656N 06449W 6966 03144 0054 +088 -027 320031 032 /// /// 03
141430 1657N 06448W 6966 03143 0046 +094 -028 318031 032 /// /// 03
141500 1658N 06447W 6966 03142 0048 +091 -032 312029 032 /// /// 03
141530 1700N 06445W 6967 03139 0049 +088 -032 311029 031 036 000 00
141600 1701N 06444W 6962 03143 0048 +088 -028 308029 030 038 000 00
141630 1702N 06443W 6969 03135 0036 +097 -021 303032 033 037 000 00
141700 1704N 06441W 6967 03135 0028 +101 -022 303033 034 038 000 03

[Patrick99]

IR presentation looks quite poor, I believe we may see an EWRC/weakening phase soon. I am no pro.

It is looking comparatively a bit more ragged on its western flank. Dry air and a little shear perhaps?