ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5781 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:44 pm

How...how is this thing doing this. And there is higher OHC/SST ahead.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5782 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:45 pm

Just seems unreal that a storm of Irma's intensity could maintain that intensity for so long... the ACE this is generating is absolutely insane. Irma would be considered top-tier in the WPAC even.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5783 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:46 pm

Irma is showing us what a hurricane looks like when there is absolutely no shear and no dry air for hundreds of miles.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5784 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:46 pm

WTNT61 KNHC 062001
TCUAT1

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
400 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

...400 PM AST POSITION UPDATE...
...CORE OF IRMA BATTERING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

An unofficial observing site on Culebra recently reported sustained
winds of 88 mph (142 km/h) and a gust to 111 mph (179 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 400 PM AST...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 65.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#5785 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:49 pm

URNT15 KNHC 062046
AF305 1311A IRMA HDOB 50 20170906
203730 1916N 06546W 6960 03017 9899 +109 +109 054090 092 069 013 00
203800 1917N 06548W 6973 03012 9905 +106 +106 056090 093 067 011 00
203830 1918N 06549W 6963 03031 9916 +103 +103 052088 091 066 010 00
203900 1920N 06550W 6962 03040 9925 +106 +106 055089 091 066 010 00
203930 1921N 06552W 6970 03036 9930 +099 +099 055083 086 063 008 00
204000 1922N 06553W 6964 03048 9936 +099 //// 055083 087 062 006 01
204030 1923N 06554W 6976 03040 9951 +098 //// 052080 082 059 008 01
204100 1924N 06555W 6965 03058 9932 +095 //// 054077 081 057 006 01
204130 1926N 06557W 6970 03056 9935 +100 +087 055074 076 056 003 00
204200 1927N 06558W 6965 03068 9940 +100 +084 056071 072 055 004 00
204230 1928N 06600W 6970 03065 9945 +100 +088 055068 070 055 005 00
204300 1929N 06601W 6968 03071 9949 +100 +093 056068 068 054 005 00
204330 1931N 06602W 6971 03071 9960 +101 +101 054071 073 053 007 03
204400 1932N 06604W 6967 03080 9959 +099 +096 054071 072 052 006 00
204430 1933N 06605W 6967 03082 9958 +101 +094 055067 070 052 006 00
204500 1934N 06606W 6963 03091 9971 +095 +089 056066 066 052 007 00
204530 1936N 06608W 6970 03084 9988 +087 +087 054068 068 049 008 00
204600 1937N 06609W 6966 03092 9978 +093 +087 053068 069 051 006 00
204630 1938N 06610W 6967 03093 9983 +095 +093 053071 072 050 006 00
204700 1939N 06612W 6966 03096 9985 +092 +090 052071 072 049 006 00
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5786 Postby Exalt » Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:50 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:How...how is this thing doing this. And there is higher OHC/SST ahead.


If she takes advantage of them I wouldn't be surprised if she attempted another run at Allen's record..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5787 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:50 pm

Exalt wrote:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:How...how is this thing doing this. And there is higher OHC/SST ahead.


If she takes advantage of them I wouldn't be surprised if she attempted another run at Allen's record..

That close to FL? I don't want to think about that.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5788 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:52 pm

mrbagyo wrote:Eastern Bahamas - North of Hispaniola - i think that would be the real sweet spot for Irma to blow up.
Image


My thinking almost remains the same.

Image

Imagine the poleward outflow of Irma once it gets into the Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5789 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:52 pm

The damage with Irma for the US will be 80 percent storm surge and flooding, the winds are always the lowest common denominator in hurricanes like these.

For islands it's a bit different because the surges never pile up as they do on a land-locked coast. While Rockport suffered tremendous wind damage, it was the rains that devastated Texas.

I fear how high the surge will be for Miami and GA/SC especially if Irma grows further in size.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5790 Postby Exalt » Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:52 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:
Exalt wrote:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:How...how is this thing doing this. And there is higher OHC/SST ahead.


If she takes advantage of them I wouldn't be surprised if she attempted another run at Allen's record..

That close to FL? I don't want to think about that.


This really is a worst case scenario for everyone involved.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5791 Postby johngaltfla » Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:54 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:
Exalt wrote:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:How...how is this thing doing this. And there is higher OHC/SST ahead.


If she takes advantage of them I wouldn't be surprised if she attempted another run at Allen's record..

That close to FL? I don't want to think about that.


Joe Bastardi called for more intensification when Irma reaches the Florida Straits. He did not spell out a number, but warned it will probably travel a bit west after hitting the Turk & Caicos intensify then turn after the Straits. If he's right, it will be a nightmare of unreal proportions.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5792 Postby Hurrilurker » Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:54 pm

dukeblue219 wrote:
Meteorcane wrote:We (The United States) really could take a page from Caribbean nations in hurricane preparation building construction. I mean Barbuda which had measured sustained winds/gusts of 120/150 (and the winds probably got a bit higher after the anemometer failed) had "no fatalities and minimal damage" (source(http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/06/americas/hurricane-irma-caribbean-islands/index.html). Similar to Cuba in Gustav which produced the strongest wind gust measured in a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic and yet (as far as I recall) had 0 fatalities. In the US we see towns heavily damaged with similar or slightly weaker winds (look at Rockport in Harvey or Port Charlotte in Charley).


There's a different report that 90% of the buildings in Barbuda have been destroyed. It was posted just before your post.

This is awful but not at all surprising. We all saw the pictures of what Camille did to infrastructure. Even with more modern building codes, these islands generally have little to protect them from wind and storm surge and many are small enough to be completely engulfed by the eye, meaning 2 passes through the eyewall, and 2 different wind directions. Whatever the first pass weakened, the 2nd pass will finish off. Some people on these islands seem to have the attitude that it's no big deal, we've got a strong house, we've been through this before, etc. But in reality very few if any have been through exactly this scenario. Few anywhere in the world have.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5793 Postby Category6 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:56 pm

Is it just me or has it been jogging pretty far to the north the last few frames?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5794 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:57 pm

Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA MOVING AWAY FROM THE
NORTHERNMOST VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 65.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NW OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for
the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence.

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas.

The government of France has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for
Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with
Haiti
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le
Mole St. Nicholas
* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the
southern border with Haiti
* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuba provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as
Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and Florida should monitor the
progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your
national meteorological service.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5795 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:57 pm

pretty much a fully closed outer eyewall now.. aannndd we wait and see if it does what it did last time of actually replaces it..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5796 Postby terstorm1012 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:57 pm

for those curious about Barbuda, the earlier report that the island fared okay is not true at all.
I have been listening to the national broadcaster from Antigua. a helicopter was finally able to get to Barbuda. 90% of the structures on Barbuda are damaged or destroyed. The PM was very upset. http://abstvradio.com/live-streaming/
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5797 Postby Exalt » Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:57 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
Exalt wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:So, it is strengthening some more?


Eyewall is intensifying slightly and Irma's forecasted to intensify before hitting FL.


Not true. Irma is not currently forecast to intensify any more than she currently has, now or before Florida.

Now, it's very possible she weakens from interaction with islands and restrengthens in the Florida Straits, but to say that Irma is "forecasted to intensify before hitting FL" is not true.


I hate to be that person, but I wasn't necessarily wrong here. I probably should've used a better word than forecasted, however I was talking about the GFS runs pitting a deepening Irma (with lower pressures than its initialization) slamming into the east coast of FL. Also, she is strengthening now, and the path she is taking will likely allow her to deepen more depending on land interaction, as SSTs/OHC are even higher than they are right now in her path ahead.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5798 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:59 pm

Irma is N (right) of trop points...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5799 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:00 pm

Three hurricanes spinning simultaneously in the Atlantic right now and maybe 3 majors soon.

Cannot believe I'm seeing this.

Image
Last edited by supercane4867 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5800 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:01 pm

Wow surprised NHC didn't post hurricane watches for south Florida at 5 pm - especially with the great model consensus.
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