ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Three hurricanes spinning simultaneously in the Atlantic right now and maybe 3 majors soon.

Cannot believe I'm seeing this.

Katia is not forecast to be a major.

She's got multiple days over the GoM, don't bet against it.

Just be glad hurricanes cannot merge together to make a super-mondo-typhoonado or whatever people start hollering about whenever we get in that situation.

...This is not very good comfort at all, of course, because with three canes, the misery is spread out rather than concentrated into one storm. But I am relieved this forum at least is mostly immune to that sort of panic.

[KBBOCA]

The pictures I'm seeing from St. Maarten/St. Martin remind me of pix following Haiyan in the Philippines...

 https://twitter.com/la1ere/status/905525223151333376

[Macrocane]

Three hurricanes spinning simultaneously in the Atlantic right now and maybe 3 majors soon.

Cannot believe I'm seeing this.

Off topic but the last time we had 3 hurricanes at the same time was in 2010, and the names were Karl, Igor and Julia.
Same initials, and same relative positions from west to east as Katia, Irma and José.

[ozonepete]

The symmetry is fantastic. You really ever see such a closeness to a perfect circle. No kinks in the circle to interrupt the wind flow.

[img]http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/sat%20rbtop%202017-09-06%200015_zps5ow1du1g.gif[img]

Ozonepete! Good to have you with us again!

Thanks King. Good to be back and see you and all of my pals. Now back to topic...

[dizzyfish]

Concerning the expected conditions anywhere in the state......

If you check the NHC advisories for the approximate size and extension of the wind fields (hurricane and ts) and then go to Google maps and right click on your location and click measure distance and where the projected path of Irma will be at her closest point to you - it will give you a general idea of where you will be within the storm and thus expected conditions. Irma is LARGE! I believe Florida peninsula is 160 miles across at its widest point - just for reference. Last I checked the hurricane wind field was 50 miles from the center (all directions - so theoretically 100 miles across) and the ts winds were 185 (370). That's over twice as wide as Florida.

Your local NWS office also has a tabular forecast that will break what is expected in your area down by the hour (and it will change as the forecast does).

I hope this helps with some of the questions and prepares you in some way or eases your mind - whichever the case may be.

Dot

[KBBOCA]

Phil Klotzbach is keeping a running list of records established by Irma

https://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/m ... ecords.pdf

Speechless... It really is as if a Pacific Super Typhoon lost its way and ended up in the Atlantic Basin!

[Bamagirl2408]

The storm is clearly on the right side of the path. It has moved quite a bit north so far. What do the northern models do?

I have not followed the plot points but since 8am it has moved .7 degrees north and 2.1 degrees west.

[joey]

wow wow the guy on the news in fl was talking to the acting dr.of nhc and he said on air THIS COULD BE THE BIG ONE thats strong language from the nhc dont u agree wow

[EquusStorm]

I'm starting to think that the NHC/WMO should just retire the letter 'I' in general from naming Atlantic storms, leaving us with a nice and even twenty letters. First, because a look at any baby names book should show that there aren't that many 'I' names to begin with; and second, three quarters of those that do exist have already been used to name violent hurricanes that had to be retired. And third, after retiring Irma and desperately searching for a replacement name, it would be a bit odd to have Ivanka and Don on the same name list...

On topic though, the setting sun is throwing really impressive shadows across Irma's terrifyingly even more intense looking eye... it's truly upsetting and I hate to see the islands deal with this, but I guess nothing at all can be done about it. I hope it hits as few islands in the Bahamas as possible but that remains to be seen.

[KBBOCA]

Still strengthening...

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/905542834622799874

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/905542497472012288

[GCANE]

IR Analysis
Some bumps along the road but Irma slowly getting bigger

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905540914554081280

[shawn6304]

Wow surprised NHC didn't post hurricane watches for south Florida at 5 pm - especially with the great model consensus.

Watches and warnings are a timing thing 36 and 48 hours ahead of tropical storm force winds

[Evil Jeremy]

Wow surprised NHC didn't post hurricane watches for south Florida at 5 pm - especially with the great model consensus.

Too early. TS impacts would start Saturday morning. Thus, watches at the earliest would be tomorrow morning. I'm gonna guess watches go up tomorrow 5pm.

[supercane4867]

-80C cloudtops represented by gray color starts to surround the eye.

[KBBOCA]

Death toll up to 6 in St. Barts / St. Martin

 https://twitter.com/la1ere/status/905545193641963520

[Aric Dunn]

The outer eyewall is starting to deepen pretty quick now..

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/status/905541666542690307

[Aric Dunn]

that deepening outer eyewall is starting to come into San Juan.. that not good.. metro areas hurricane force winds.. not.. good

looking at doppler velocities the 70 to 90 kt winds are just barely offshore..