ATL: IRMA - Models

[adam0983]

Hurricane Irma is moving at a faster forward speed tonight is that going to make hurricane Irma go more west or more east in future model runs.

[ronjon]

Hurricane Irma is moving at a faster forward speed tonight is that going to make hurricane Irma go more west or more east in future model runs.

More west before the alabama shortwave turns it.

[ronjon]

Onshore: ECM, UKMET, HMON, CMC, NHC
Offshore: GFS, HWRF, NAM

Add JMA and NAVGEM to onshore - furthest west.

[Hurricaneman]

Hurricane Irma is moving at a faster forward speed tonight is that going to make hurricane Irma go more west or more east in future model runs.

More west before the alabama shortwave turns it.

I think the GFS is too slow and hence it turns it too soon I personally think the Euro has the speed of Irma down better

[jlauderdal]

Models keep insisting and taunting East coast Florida residents and visitors on keeping this JUST offshore.

The "big tease". Euro still onshore as of latest run (S Fl). Next 2 Euro runs might go a long way toward telling story. 1am and 1pm Thursday.

In other words, if each of the next two Euro runs show landfall in S Fl, I think that will add tremendous credence toward that scenario. Just in case some in SE Fl need one more final confirmation as to the seriousness of the situation.

its interesting to look at models and this is a model thread of course but nhc track will most likely out perform any model track..they know the strengths, weaknesses and everything in between plus all the other tools including a boat load of experience..plus they have a a very long off season that they use to get ready for prime time..the best track to hug is the nhc track

[Big Easy Breeze]

Almost appears the frontal boundary across the northern GOM is beginning to backup ever so slightly, looking at the latest WV imagery. I wonder what impact that could have on the models?

[otowntiger]

18z GFS Ensembles

Looks like the NHC is right down the middle or even a little left of the middle of those.

[northjaxpro]

Hurricane Irma is moving at a faster forward speed tonight is that going to make hurricane Irma go more west or more east in future model runs.

More west before the alabama shortwave turns it.

I think the GFS is too slow and hence it turns it too soon I personally think the Euro has the speed of Irma down better

Agreed. GFS pulling its usual underestimation of the ridge..still doing this even with the new upgrade.

[MatthewsRevenge]

Hurricane Irma is moving at a faster forward speed tonight is that going to make hurricane Irma go more west or more east in future model runs.

More west before the alabama shortwave turns it.

Would have to speed up for the shortwave but Irma's currently moving at a slower pace over PR so Euro might be right with how it moves up.

[ronjon]

EC ensembles further west. Split the difference with GFS ensembles...you have the NHC track.

[Bocadude85]

The 18Z NAVGEM with landfall in the Keys/Mainland Monroe County.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017090618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905592543051739136



Michael Ventrice ✔ @MJVentrice
Major Hurricane #Irma's track and U.S. impact is still a mess past 72 hours. There is still room for change in the forecast track so keep
8:44 PM - Sep 6, 2017

[stormreader]

The 18Z NAVGEM with landfall in the Keys/Mainland Monroe County.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017090618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0

I know it's the Navgem, but at least it is onshore in S Fl. Also suspect that any small Euro adjustments will be west. So north through the upper keys into Monroe county sounds reasonable. Until yesterday I thought there might still be a slight west component even then, and up to Naples. But now it's more likely that a trek into Monroe county would be from S to N.

[ronjon]

GEM ensembles far west - mean over eastern GOM.

[northjaxpro]

Almost appears the frontal boundary across the northern GOM is beginning to backup ever so slightly, looking at the latest WV imagery. I wonder what impact that could have on the models?

.Front is backing up as it has run up against the ridge axis steering Irma. This may be indicating the ridge may be re-asserting itself here in the short term, Therefore, this may steer Irma even a bit farther west over the next 2-3 days.

[Blown Away]

Not much movement from 00z TVCN...

Interesting nearly all the 00z guidance R of NHC...

[PandaCitrus]

The HWRF infrared model simulation shows an absolutely gigantic eye, almost annular in nature. It had to be 40 or even 50 miles wide. Whether the center comes offshore 20 miles or into the everglades spine or west coast may not matter much if this huge eyewall materializes. You are looking at possibly a swatch of 70-90 miles in width of extreme cat 4-5 winds in a gigantic eyewall.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905495183919390720

[tgenius]

Not much movement from 00z TVCN...

Interesting nearly all the 00z guidance R of NHC...

For the 100th time, those are NOT 00Z runs!! Before the mods post it!

[txrok]

Could you please explain what is the AL shortwave? tyvm

Hurricane Irma is moving at a faster forward speed tonight is that going to make hurricane Irma go more west or more east in future model runs.

More west before the alabama shortwave turns it.

[weathaguyry]

I think the key is that the father north this this thing can get without crossing land, it will be stronger. (A ride up the spine of FL would likely weaken this to a TS/1 before grossing the GA line, but a track offshore could promote a strong 2 as this approaches the NC area)