ATL: IRMA - Models

[p1nheadlarry]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905641884504096770



Ryan Maue ✔ @RyanMaue
GFS init of Hurricane #Irma at 967 mb not one of its best efforts.
12:00 AM - Sep 7, 2017

How does this work? Do they just "plug in a value" for the location on a grid? Or are the initial conditions that go into the model produce this at t=0?

[Ken711]

Due north now.

SC/NC landfall further north?

[p1nheadlarry]

I'm not trying to imply anything. I really want to know if the trough can erode the ridge, that has the storm moving at 16mph wnw... slowing down a little and then a sharp turn to the north? Don't they usually slow down around the sw periphery of the ridge... take time to do that?? That's a pretty dramatic movement north.

There are storms that turn on a dime I'm sure

[Aric Dunn]

right now I am ( and have been ) throwing away the GFS past 3 days this entire season.. been working quite well..

[psyclone]

A degree or 2 of longitude can make enormous differences in the ultimate outcome. If I were on the east coast of florida I'd drink to that run. a nice baby step...but at the expense of those north and east..

[ConvergenceZone]

It will be interesting to see what the EURO shows......I wouldn't pay attention to the crazy strength that the GFS model is showing by the time it gets close to South Carolina.......I'd stick to the strength that the NHC is saying it will be.......As they said on the weather channel, Models don't do very well with strength forecasts.......

[tolakram]

[AutoPenalti]

Is Maue implying that the GFS run was trash?

[Javlin]

the better question is how much pumping up of the ridge does IRMA provide with a ever increasing outflow? current models only need a couple hours longer before the turn to come ashore.. soo yeah.. not looking good..

Aric so your inferring that you are not buying that dramatic north shift off the coast?

I would if it was more gradual.. it just sort of stops then turns. normally there is a distinct slow down then turn.. especially since it is moving at 12 to 15 mph.. you just cant turn that fast without slowly a lot..

That's what I keep thinking Aric a hurricane is mass(huge) with particles in angular acceleration moving as one with a forward momentum and she is moving at a good clip this evening meaning a good ridge to the N.I am like you a more gradual turn or we need a stall to go due N.

[SFLcane]

Well since most of these models are based of the GFS id expect some eastward shifts coming overnight. NHC might shift of the FL coast at 5am.

[HDGator]

Is this N / N-NE movement from 72hr to 96 hr really believable or is this the old GFS right bias into ridges?

This question seems to be ultimately impacting the potential impacts to the east coast of Florida and landfall in SC / NC.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

damn! I hope that doesn't play out. that is coming in at Myrtle Beach, and just south of me in Southport(mouth of the Cape Fear). We would get the dirty side, and I don't like that idea at all. I have a coffee shop that doesn't make money if it is getting beat on by those winds.

[tolakram]

The GFS did not trend further from a Florida landfall, just slower (I think I might have said faster earlier). After that it takes a jog east and then moves north. Could happen, just like the Matthew track it had that looped it around and hit south Florida a second time.

6 run trend.

[ConvergenceZone]

Thanks for posting all of the model runs!!
It's worth staying up for them.
Keep bringing the good news GFS!!!!! Keep it up! Let's shift it East even more tomorrow!

[adam0983]

The gfs model can't be trusted right now because it has been wrong all season and has done an awful job with Hurricane Irma.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Why would the storm be weaker if there is no shear, dry air, no land interaction, and the water temps in the Gulf Stream are very warm? We have had cat 4s in NC. GFS could be wrong, but many said the same about a 185 mph hurricane going through the Leewards as well.

[tallywx]

These GFS 100mi shifts in center location 4-5 days out from run to run are frankly unacceptable. You'd think we were in the 80s era with CLPR and LBAR models.

[Alyono]

BIG TIME west shift by the UKMET

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 07.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 65.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2017 0 19.2N 65.9W 958 79
1200UTC 07.09.2017 12 20.2N 69.0W 959 75
0000UTC 08.09.2017 24 21.0N 71.9W 945 87
1200UTC 08.09.2017 36 21.6N 74.3W 950 85
0000UTC 09.09.2017 48 21.7N 76.4W 942 85
1200UTC 09.09.2017 60 21.9N 78.6W 952 81
0000UTC 10.09.2017 72 22.4N 80.3W 951 80
1200UTC 10.09.2017 84 23.2N 81.1W 941 83
0000UTC 11.09.2017 96 24.5N 81.4W 926 91
1200UTC 11.09.2017 108 26.1N 81.3W 923 84
0000UTC 12.09.2017 120 28.4N 81.0W 949 78
1200UTC 12.09.2017 132 30.8N 80.8W 959 69
0000UTC 13.09.2017 144 32.9N 80.4W 974 49

[Steve]

damn! I hope that doesn't play out. that is coming in at Myrtle Beach, and just south of me in Southport(mouth of the Cape Fear). We would get the dirty side, and I don't like that idea at all. I have a coffee shop that doesn't make money if it is getting beat on by those winds.

It probably won't. GFS doesn't hit Florida, so it's a completely different "untouched" scenario coming up. It's smarter than I am, but I disagree with it for now.

[tgenius]

BIG TIME west shift by the UKMET

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 07.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 65.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2017 0 19.2N 65.9W 958 79
1200UTC 07.09.2017 12 20.2N 69.0W 959 75
0000UTC 08.09.2017 24 21.0N 71.9W 945 87
1200UTC 08.09.2017 36 21.6N 74.3W 950 85
0000UTC 09.09.2017 48 21.7N 76.4W 942 85
1200UTC 09.09.2017 60 21.9N 78.6W 952 81
0000UTC 10.09.2017 72 22.4N 80.3W 951 80
1200UTC 10.09.2017 84 23.2N 81.1W 941 83
0000UTC 11.09.2017 96 24.5N 81.4W 926 91
1200UTC 11.09.2017 108 26.1N 81.3W 923 84
0000UTC 12.09.2017 120 28.4N 81.0W 949 78
1200UTC 12.09.2017 132 30.8N 80.8W 959 69
0000UTC 13.09.2017 144 32.9N 80.4W 974 49

Alyono I can't remember now, UKMET got Matthew to the tee, but is it accurate on intensity too?