ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jasons2k]

Barb (msbee) posted they are ok on stormcarib. You can see her post of the damage.

Best news all day! Time to crash and see what I wake-up to. I'm not anticipating any major changes or shifts overnight.

[meriland29]

When is the next recon? Surprised she has not strengthened, nor weakened at all since yesterday...

[EDR1222]

Its interesting that Irma has been able to maintain her current category 5 strength for so long. I remember seeing a documentary on Hurricane Gilbert, perhaps a National Geographic Special or something, but I recall the crew that flew into the storm discussing how hurricanes of that intensity cannot maintain it for very long due to strangulation of the inner eyewall or something along those lines. I guess that was a long time ago however, and obviously Irma is a clear exception if that is the norm.

Sure hope she weakens soon.

[artist]

From stormcarib-

#URGENT: Antigua and Barbuda PM says extent of destruction is "unprecedented"



“The extent of the destruction on Barbuda is unprecedented,” Antigua and Barbuda Prime Minister Gaston Browne said in an interview with public broadcaster ABS Television/Radio. “95% of properties would have suffered” some kind of damage from the storm, he said, and added

“Barbuda is barely habitable.”



Prime Minister Browne also said that the one confirmed fatality at this time is an infant, and died while the mother of the child was trying to escape a property.

[BZSTORM]

For the first time in all my decade and a half of tracking hurricanes, I am unnerved. Frances/Jeanne were always going to be North of me, and I knew Wilma would go quickly and probably not be a Major by the time it got to Broward County.

But I've never been more worried than with Irma.....

I share your fears, Jeremy. I don't know why. Something just feels terribly "off" about this one. I honestly wanted to cry earlier this evening, and I'm not an overly emotional person. I still have many relatives in Florida, including those, I stayed with that fateful summer of 1992, and am very concerned for their safety.

If its any consolation I have the same vibe with Irma I had for Iris when she was just entering the Caribbean and the track was far from Belize. This season since July has seen storms go from nada to full on hurricanes. If Belize had a cat 5 the size of Irma Belize would be flattened. We had a 12ft surge with Iris through the Placencia Peninsula verified by the head Met in Belize, because we are a peninsula we don't count as landfall even though we took brunt of the surge even with a reef to weaken it. For this reason I have urged friends in Homestead and Miami with young kids and elderly parents to evacuate and do it sooner than later. A coast hugging hurricane would do a huge amount of damage.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070403
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 39 20170907
035400 1810N 06528W 6965 03171 0052 +110 +021 180044 045 /// /// 03
035430 1812N 06528W 6974 03165 0053 +114 +021 177043 044 033 000 00
035500 1815N 06528W 6967 03171 0055 +111 +023 177044 045 034 000 03
035530 1817N 06528W 6970 03167 0051 +112 +024 176046 046 036 000 00
035600 1819N 06528W 6968 03168 0048 +115 +022 176046 046 037 000 03
035630 1821N 06528W 6970 03166 0048 +115 +022 171046 046 038 001 00
035700 1823N 06528W 6967 03170 0042 +118 +021 169046 047 037 000 00
035730 1825N 06528W 6970 03166 0043 +117 +021 170047 048 037 000 03
035800 1828N 06528W 6969 03165 0047 +113 +023 174049 049 037 000 00
035830 1830N 06528W 6971 03162 0054 +108 +028 173046 048 037 000 00
035900 1832N 06528W 6968 03165 0055 +105 +026 171048 048 036 001 00
035930 1834N 06528W 6971 03159 0053 +105 +026 171049 050 036 000 00
040000 1836N 06528W 6968 03162 0046 +110 +024 172050 050 037 000 00
040030 1838N 06528W 6969 03161 0046 +110 +023 171050 050 038 000 00
040100 1841N 06528W 6968 03160 0046 +109 +020 168050 051 038 000 00
040130 1843N 06528W 6970 03156 0049 +105 +022 165050 050 037 001 00
040200 1845N 06527W 6971 03155 0047 +105 +024 167050 050 036 001 03
040230 1847N 06527W 6969 03155 0041 +108 +019 165050 050 037 001 00
040300 1849N 06527W 6969 03154 0042 +108 +019 166049 050 038 001 00
040330 1852N 06527W 6969 03155 0046 +105 +022 168048 049 038 001 00
$$
;

[DCal2K]

Will people living in Miami, outside of the evacuation zones be safe to stay and ride out the storm? I know people living two or three miles west of I-95 outside of the evacuation zone, and they have the impression conditions shouldn't be too bad where they are at. They have been told to stock up on two or three days of water. Seems like only a small percentage of people in Miami-Dade county are being told to evacuate, about 100,000 out of over 2.5M. I want to figure out what kind of danger they are in by staying.

It depends on the ultimate track. Watch the NHC and follow local evacuation orders. Current evacuations are based on staged evacuation of those most vulnerable to surge impacts. There is no effort to evacuate those potentially exposed to wind damage. It's not physically possible to evacuate everyone in the path of a cat4/cat5 in South Florida based on potential wind damage. That's why everyone is being encouraged to shelter within their county of residence when they are in a surge evacuation zone.


That being said, there is a big difference between sheltering in place in a cat1/cat2 vs a cat4/cat5. If they are not comfortable with the potential need to take care of themselves (water, food, shelter) after a catastrophic strike, then now is the time to go. I can't be more blunt than that.

Ah, ok. Thanks for the information.

[artist]

Video from Puerto Rico

https://mobile.twitter.com/NotiUno/stat ... 64/video/1

[AdamFirst]

Hunkering down here in Port Saint Lucie. I evacuated to Broward for Matthew because I have family connections, but that's not an option now. Got gas, water, batteries, plenty of food. Hope for the best.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070413
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 40 20170907
040400 1854N 06527W 6970 03153 0045 +105 +022 169049 049 039 001 00
040430 1856N 06527W 6969 03154 0043 +105 +021 171049 049 038 001 00
040500 1858N 06527W 6967 03154 0042 +105 +021 171050 050 038 000 00
040530 1900N 06527W 6970 03149 0047 +100 +023 176049 050 039 000 00
040600 1902N 06527W 6971 03148 0053 +094 +027 174049 050 038 001 00
040630 1905N 06527W 6967 03150 0052 +094 +029 172051 052 038 000 00
040700 1907N 06527W 6970 03147 0045 +098 +031 170054 055 038 000 00
040730 1909N 06527W 6969 03149 0048 +097 +031 169054 055 036 001 00
040800 1911N 06527W 6969 03148 0049 +095 +025 168055 056 034 001 00
040830 1914N 06527W 6969 03148 0052 +094 +030 167056 056 035 001 03
040900 1916N 06527W 6970 03148 0049 +095 +031 165056 057 036 001 00
040930 1918N 06527W 6967 03147 0047 +095 +027 163058 058 035 001 00
041000 1920N 06527W 6970 03146 0048 +095 +024 164058 059 036 000 00
041030 1922N 06527W 6970 03144 0052 +091 +026 164058 059 037 001 00
041100 1925N 06527W 6968 03148 0053 +091 +028 161058 059 040 001 00
041130 1927N 06527W 6970 03141 0043 +093 +042 160060 060 038 002 00
041200 1929N 06527W 6970 03146 0072 +073 +071 156060 065 038 006 00
041230 1931N 06527W 6965 03147 0059 +079 +057 159058 059 035 002 03
041300 1934N 06527W 6969 03144 0054 +085 +052 156061 062 034 001 00
041330 1936N 06527W 6971 03142 0052 +089 +046 156062 062 035 002 00
$$
;

[Sanibel]

I have a friend who has a house in Cutler Bay SW 185th about 3 blocks in from Old Cutler Road...He was pretty frazzled but resigned...He's hoping for an eastward trend...

[Tekken_Guy]

One of the strongest hurricanes in terms of winds can't even go below the pressure attained by Ivan. What is going on?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070423
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 41 20170907
041400 1938N 06527W 6969 03148 0053 +090 +040 156060 061 041 003 00
041430 1940N 06527W 6968 03148 0051 +093 +037 157059 061 045 003 00
041500 1942N 06527W 6974 03142 0073 +075 +062 155062 065 044 006 00
041530 1945N 06527W 6972 03147 0057 +089 +055 155057 058 044 004 00
041600 1947N 06527W 6967 03154 0054 +092 +052 156060 060 041 003 00
041630 1949N 06527W 6967 03153 0054 +091 +066 158059 061 040 004 00
041700 1951N 06527W 6969 03148 0058 +087 +067 154065 067 041 006 00
041730 1954N 06527W 6978 03141 0065 +083 +077 152065 066 043 007 00
041800 1956N 06527W 6968 03152 0074 +077 +070 151064 067 042 006 00
041830 1958N 06527W 6970 03158 0052 +099 +052 148062 063 042 001 00
041900 2000N 06527W 6970 03157 0055 +097 +050 146062 063 041 002 03
041930 2002N 06527W 6966 03166 0063 +096 +040 147064 065 041 001 00
042000 2005N 06527W 6970 03162 0058 +101 +037 146063 064 041 001 00
042030 2007N 06527W 6972 03163 0062 +099 +039 145065 065 042 000 00
042100 2009N 06527W 6964 03162 0051 +099 +052 146064 065 042 001 03
042130 2011N 06527W 6971 03151 0045 +104 +043 141062 064 041 001 03
042200 2013N 06527W 6969 03152 0037 +107 +042 140061 063 043 001 00
042230 2015N 06527W 6971 03152 0035 +112 +035 139059 060 043 001 00
042300 2018N 06527W 6970 03153 0044 +104 +037 136064 067 044 000 00
042330 2020N 06527W 6968 03155 0045 +104 +046 133066 067 042 001 00
$$
;

[WeatherNewbie]

I have a friend who has a house in Cutler Bay SW 185th about 3 blocks in from Old Cutler Road...He was pretty frazzled but resigned...He's hoping for an eastward trend...

i just don't get this logic. i hope for lots of things all of the time, but the alternative if i'm wrong isn't a chance i die. i go to vegas multiple times a year to gamble, but not when it comes to my life.

[JSDS]

Yes, I'm from Louisiana, and no, I am not -removed- nor do I think Irma will come anywhere near me, but I do have a serious question. How does a storm the size and strength of Irma make a not quite 90 degree turn? It would seem that it would need to nearly stop to make a turn that sharp. I've survived many hurricanes, starting with Hilda and Betsy back in the 60s, and I've followed s2k since before Katrina, but understanding how that sharp a turn can be made by a storm that big is over my head. An explanation in not too scientific terms would be appreciated.

[Evenstar]

For the first time in all my decade and a half of tracking hurricanes, I am unnerved. Frances/Jeanne were always going to be North of me, and I knew Wilma would go quickly and probably not be a Major by the time it got to Broward County.

But I've never been more worried than with Irma.....

I share your fears, Jeremy. I don't know why. Something just feels terribly "off" about this one. I honestly wanted to cry earlier this evening, and I'm not an overly emotional person. I still have many relatives in Florida, including those, I stayed with that fateful summer of 1992, and am very concerned for their safety.

If its any consolation I have the same vibe with Irma I had for Iris when she was just entering the Caribbean and the track was far from Belize. This season since July has seen storms go from nada to full on hurricanes. If Belize had a cat 5 the size of Irma Belize would be flattened. We had a 12ft surge with Iris through the Placencia Peninsula verified by the head Met in Belize, because we are a peninsula we don't count as landfall even though we took brunt of the surge even with a reef to weaken it. For this reason I have urged friends in Homestead and Miami with young kids and elderly parents to evacuate and do it sooner than later. A coast hugging hurricane would do a huge amount of damage.

Irma is one more in a long and illustrious line of infamous "I"-named storms. The voodoo priestess in me says this is not a coincidence...
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... since-2000

[Sanibel]

i just don't get this logic. i hope for lots of things all of the time, but the alternative if i'm wrong isn't a chance i die. i go to vegas multiple times a year to gamble, but not when it comes to my life.

I should have mentioned he intends to go to a shelter in northern Dade County if it hits...His house was right in Andrew's landfall zone...

[norva]

I share your fears, Jeremy. I don't know why. Something just feels terribly "off" about this one. I honestly wanted to cry earlier this evening, and I'm not an overly emotional person. I still have many relatives in Florida, including those, I stayed with that fateful summer of 1992, and am very concerned for their safety.

If its any consolation I have the same vibe with Irma I had for Iris when she was just entering the Caribbean and the track was far from Belize. This season since July has seen storms go from nada to full on hurricanes. If Belize had a cat 5 the size of Irma Belize would be flattened. We had a 12ft surge with Iris through the Placencia Peninsula verified by the head Met in Belize, because we are a peninsula we don't count as landfall even though we took brunt of the surge even with a reef to weaken it. For this reason I have urged friends in Homestead and Miami with young kids and elderly parents to evacuate and do it sooner than later. A coast hugging hurricane would do a huge amount of damage.

Irma is one more in a long and illustrious line of infamous "I"-named storms. The voodoo priestess in me says this is not a coincidence...
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... since-2000

I mean as long as we go in alphabetical naming order it isn't that surprising that "I" would more likely show up during peak times and thus be more likely to be stronger.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070433
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 42 20170907
042400 2022N 06527W 6970 03155 0046 +105 +038 135063 066 042 001 00
042430 2024N 06527W 6968 03159 0047 +106 +034 136063 064 040 001 03
042500 2026N 06527W 6969 03158 0051 +104 +031 136065 065 040 001 00
042530 2028N 06527W 6970 03162 0057 +102 +030 135064 065 039 001 00
042600 2030N 06527W 6968 03164 0062 +099 +025 131064 064 040 000 00
042630 2032N 06527W 6969 03165 0068 +096 +030 129065 065 039 001 00
042700 2034N 06527W 6965 03173 0067 +098 +021 128065 066 040 000 00
042730 2036N 06527W 6971 03164 0070 +096 +017 129064 065 039 001 00
042800 2038N 06527W 6970 03166 0071 +098 +014 129066 067 039 001 00
042830 2040N 06527W 6970 03166 0076 +090 +031 128063 065 038 001 03
042900 2042N 06529W 6966 03171 0073 +094 +031 126063 063 /// /// 03
042930 2041N 06530W 6973 03164 0070 +097 +023 127061 062 038 001 00
043000 2039N 06532W 6968 03168 0067 +098 +019 126063 063 041 000 00
043030 2038N 06534W 6971 03162 0069 +095 +024 128062 063 040 001 00
043100 2037N 06535W 6971 03163 0062 +100 +022 126062 063 041 001 00
043130 2036N 06537W 6965 03165 0056 +102 +020 126063 064 042 001 00
043200 2035N 06539W 6973 03157 0049 +110 +017 127064 064 041 001 00
043230 2034N 06540W 6966 03162 0044 +110 +021 126062 063 042 001 00
043300 2033N 06542W 6969 03156 0042 +106 +036 126062 062 042 001 03
043330 2032N 06544W 6970 03152 0043 +106 +026 126062 062 043 001 00
$$
;

[Evenstar]

If its any consolation I have the same vibe with Irma I had for Iris when she was just entering the Caribbean and the track was far from Belize. This season since July has seen storms go from nada to full on hurricanes. If Belize had a cat 5 the size of Irma Belize would be flattened. We had a 12ft surge with Iris through the Placencia Peninsula verified by the head Met in Belize, because we are a peninsula we don't count as landfall even though we took brunt of the surge even with a reef to weaken it. For this reason I have urged friends in Homestead and Miami with young kids and elderly parents to evacuate and do it sooner than later. A coast hugging hurricane would do a huge amount of damage.

Irma is one more in a long and illustrious line of infamous "I"-named storms. The voodoo priestess in me says this is not a coincidence...
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... since-2000

I mean as long as we go in alphabetical naming order it isn't that surprising that "I" would more likely show up during peak times and thus be more likely to be stronger.

Yes, but that wouldn't be nearly as interesting as blaming voodoo.