ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Irma may intensify on approach to FL.
Going to get a sudden jolt of mid-level moist air.
Also, it may connect TPW from its tail into the Carib thru Haiti and the water between Hispaniola and Cuba.
Perfect ULL conditions to stretch out the vort column vertically.
Land interaction with FL will be key then.
CIN, CAPE, Theta-E, etc all will come in as factors.
But, at this point sub 900mb could be likely.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_11.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_11.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_11.png

It will also be over the deep very warm waters of the gulf stream as it approaches S FL.

[plasticup]

Good morning - Looking for a reliable source of info regarding inland impacts @ landfall +1/+2 days...need to make a decision about moving 34 boats. If anyone has any recommended sources, PM me. Thanks!

Your local weather service.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Good morning - Looking for a reliable source of info regarding inland impacts @ landfall +1/+2 days...need to make a decision about moving 34 boats. If anyone has any recommended sources, PM me. Thanks!

Hey USCG. First of all, thank you for your service!

Your best bet is going to be the NHC. If you reach out to them and explain who you are, you can probably get in touch with one of their meteorologists and go over impact details. Even if not, their public data is good. What islands, if you don't mind me asking?

[USCG_Hurricane_Watcher]

Good morning - Looking for a reliable source of info regarding inland impacts @ landfall +1/+2 days...need to make a decision about moving 34 boats. If anyone has any recommended sources, PM me. Thanks!

Your local weather service.

Perhaps I should clarify...looking for a source beyond the local mets. Local news stated a couple of days ago, and I quote, "Irma may hit somewhere between Texas and Maine - or stay out at sea." So you can see my reluctance...additionally, my focus is somewhat more specific.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071123
AF305 1711A IRMA HDOB 15 20170907
111400 2003N 06852W 6966 02449 9204 +171 +142 004026 031 032 001 03
111430 2004N 06854W 6967 02453 9212 +167 +147 013034 036 037 003 00
111500 2006N 06855W 6965 02462 9209 +178 +138 025043 047 046 002 00
111530 2007N 06856W 6974 02465 9229 +173 +138 031060 067 072 003 03
111600 2008N 06857W 6960 02507 9257 +167 +140 030078 082 125 003 03
111630 2009N 06859W 6994 02501 9282 +149 +146 032095 101 137 002 05
111700 2010N 06900W 6937 02599 9375 +147 //// 040109 112 147 029 01
111730 2011N 06901W 6945 02635 9449 +142 +142 039144 151 150 060 00
111800 2012N 06902W 7010 02617 9525 +114 //// 034150 152 150 060 05
111830 2013N 06902W 6967 02695 //// +081 //// 035142 147 /// /// 05
111900 2013N 06903W 6960 02726 //// +073 //// 037141 142 /// /// 05
111930 2014N 06904W 6959 02750 9625 +110 //// 037137 140 109 063 01
112000 2015N 06905W 6962 02776 9654 +109 +109 040130 133 107 062 00
112030 2016N 06906W 6967 02806 9677 +113 +113 041124 128 104 031 00
112100 2017N 06907W 6970 02822 9686 +120 +120 042121 122 102 006 00
112130 2018N 06908W 6951 02865 9703 +120 //// 043114 119 102 006 01
112200 2019N 06909W 6970 02861 9725 +118 //// 044111 113 094 007 01
112230 2020N 06910W 6969 02881 9728 +112 //// 045108 111 095 006 01
112300 2021N 06911W 6964 02904 9753 +122 +122 047106 107 093 005 00
112330 2023N 06912W 6968 02913 9772 +123 +123 048104 105 090 008 00

[NDG]

Strongest winds found so far on the northern quadrant.

111700 2010N 06900W 6937 02599 9375 +147 //// 040109 112 147 029 01
111730 2011N 06901W 6945 02635 9449 +142 +142 039144 151 150 060 00
111800 2012N 06902W 7010 02617 9525 +114 //// 034150 152 150 060 05
111830 2013N 06902W 6967 02695 //// +081 //// 035142 147 /// /// 05
111900 2013N 06903W 6960 02726 //// +073 //// 037141 142 /// /// 05
111930 2014N 06904W 6959 02750 9625 +110 //// 037137 140 109 063 01
112000 2015N 06905W 6962 02776 9654 +109 +109 040130 133 107 062 00

[USCG_Hurricane_Watcher]

Good morning - Looking for a reliable source of info regarding inland impacts @ landfall +1/+2 days...need to make a decision about moving 34 boats. If anyone has any recommended sources, PM me. Thanks!

Hey USCG. First of all, thank you for your service!

Your best bet is going to be the NHC. If you reach out to them and explain who you are, you can probably get in touch with one of their meteorologists and go over impact details. Even if not, their public data is good. What islands, if you don't mind me asking?

You are very welcome.

Not an island, I'm at our training center in Yorktown...I have 34 boats that either need to get trailered, parked or pulled. All is dependent on local wind forecast and tidal impacts. Ultimately, trying to avoid what happened during Isabel and because of our location, we tend to get overlooked by the mets in Norfolk.

[Meteorcane]

Good morning - Looking for a reliable source of info regarding inland impacts @ landfall +1/+2 days...need to make a decision about moving 34 boats. If anyone has any recommended sources, PM me. Thanks!

Your local weather service.

Perhaps I should clarify...looking for a source beyond the local mets. Local news stated a couple of days ago, and I quote, "Irma may hit somewhere between Texas and Maine - or stay out at sea." So you can see my reluctance...additionally, my focus is somewhat more specific.

His advice is still correct, call your local NWS office, they know what they are talking about and do this kind of thing (called DSS:Decision Support Services) on a daily basis.

[NDG]

Good morning - Looking for a reliable source of info regarding inland impacts @ landfall +1/+2 days...need to make a decision about moving 34 boats. If anyone has any recommended sources, PM me. Thanks!

Your local weather service.

Perhaps I should clarify...looking for a source beyond the local mets. Local news stated a couple of days ago, and I quote, "Irma may hit somewhere between Texas and Maine - or stay out at sea." So you can see my reluctance...additionally, my focus is somewhat more specific.

I would recommend to go by your local NWS forecast since we do not know what area specifically you are wanting information on, PM me and can look it up for you.

[tolakram]

Good morning - Looking for a reliable source of info regarding inland impacts @ landfall +1/+2 days...need to make a decision about moving 34 boats. If anyone has any recommended sources, PM me. Thanks!

Your local weather service.

Perhaps I should clarify...looking for a source beyond the local mets. Local news stated a couple of days ago, and I quote, "Irma may hit somewhere between Texas and Maine - or stay out at sea." So you can see my reluctance...additionally, my focus is somewhat more specific.

Wrong local mets, use your NWS office for your area, read their coordinated statements for Irma. The NHC track is going to be the best there is and their wind charts should tell you all there is to know. There is no better source.

Here's the NHC wind page.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/102752.shtml?tswind120#contents

[Meteorcane]

Strongest winds found so far on the northern quadrant.

111700 2010N 06900W 6937 02599 9375 +147 //// 040109 112 147 029 01
111730 2011N 06901W 6945 02635 9449 +142 +142 039144 151 150 060 00
111800 2012N 06902W 7010 02617 9525 +114 //// 034150 152 150 060 05
111830 2013N 06902W 6967 02695 //// +081 //// 035142 147 /// /// 05
111900 2013N 06903W 6960 02726 //// +073 //// 037141 142 /// /// 05
111930 2014N 06904W 6959 02750 9625 +110 //// 037137 140 109 063 01
112000 2015N 06905W 6962 02776 9654 +109 +109 040130 133 107 062 00

Looks like it remains a Cat.5, although will likely see a pressure increase of a couple mb, since last advisory.

[NDG]

Strongest winds found so far on the northern quadrant.

111700 2010N 06900W 6937 02599 9375 +147 //// 040109 112 147 029 01
111730 2011N 06901W 6945 02635 9449 +142 +142 039144 151 150 060 00
111800 2012N 06902W 7010 02617 9525 +114 //// 034150 152 150 060 05
111830 2013N 06902W 6967 02695 //// +081 //// 035142 147 /// /// 05
111900 2013N 06903W 6960 02726 //// +073 //// 037141 142 /// /// 05
111930 2014N 06904W 6959 02750 9625 +110 //// 037137 140 109 063 01
112000 2015N 06905W 6962 02776 9654 +109 +109 040130 133 107 062 00

Looks like it remains a Cat.5, although will likely see a pressure increase of a couple mb, since last advisory.

Yeah, it measured an un-flagged 173mph surface winds, I would leave it at 180 mph if it was up to me, especially since it has not sampled the NE quadrant yet.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/905755808453021696




Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits
Recon immediately found estimated surface winds of 175 mph in #Irma's northwestern eyewall. Clearly not weakening. Awaiting dropsonde.
7:33 AM - Sep 7, 2017

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 11:30Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 05 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 11:12:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°03'N 68°47'W (20.05N 68.7833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 132 statute miles (212 km) to the NE (35°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,400m (7,874ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 109kts (~ 125.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ESE/SE (124°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 221° at 128kts (From the SW at ~ 147.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SE (127°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 921mb (27.20 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 152kts (~ 174.9mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the WNW (303°) from the flight level center at 11:18:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 250° at 7kts (From the WSW at 8mph)
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the ESE (113°) from the flight level center

[flamingosun]

Your local weather service.

Perhaps I should clarify...looking for a source beyond the local mets. Local news stated a couple of days ago, and I quote, "Irma may hit somewhere between Texas and Maine - or stay out at sea." So you can see my reluctance...additionally, my focus is somewhat more specific.

Wrong local mets, use your NWS office for your area, read their coordinated statements for Irma. The NHC track is going to be the best there is and their wind charts should tell you all there is to know. There is no better source.

Here's the NHC wind page.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/102752.shtml?tswind120#contents

You can also go to http://www.weather.gov/, enter the zip code in question, and get a detailed report from the NWS for your area.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071135
AF305 1711A IRMA HDOB 16 20170907
112400 2024N 06913W 6970 02924 9793 +121 +121 051103 105 084 010 00
112430 2025N 06915W 6963 02947 9804 +119 +119 053105 107 085 009 00
112500 2026N 06916W 6966 02954 9821 +120 +120 054103 103 083 009 00
112530 2028N 06917W 6958 02978 9847 +117 +117 056107 108 080 010 00
112600 2029N 06918W 6972 02970 9867 +113 +113 053105 108 077 012 00
112630 2030N 06920W 6967 02987 9884 +111 +111 053102 103 075 015 00
112700 2031N 06921W 6969 02996 9904 +105 +105 048100 102 072 016 00
112730 2032N 06922W 6962 03012 9916 +101 +101 049099 100 067 012 00
112800 2033N 06923W 6967 03013 9924 +095 +095 052101 102 072 009 00
112830 2035N 06924W 6967 03022 9916 +093 //// 052094 100 073 008 01
112900 2036N 06926W 6967 03031 9915 +090 //// 054096 097 075 007 05
112930 2037N 06927W 6968 03032 9928 +087 //// 056096 096 080 014 01
113000 2038N 06928W 6966 03043 9938 +089 //// 059097 097 085 013 01
113030 2040N 06930W 6969 03044 9934 +099 +099 060097 098 063 010 00
113100 2041N 06931W 6971 03050 9952 +098 +098 061091 096 063 011 00
113130 2042N 06932W 6966 03060 9956 +094 +094 063094 095 061 011 03
113200 2044N 06934W 6965 03071 9968 +102 +102 064089 092 058 015 03
113230 2045N 06935W 6962 03076 9978 +096 +096 065085 089 056 015 00
113300 2046N 06936W 6966 03073 9984 +096 +096 065083 084 058 013 03
113330 2048N 06938W 6966 03079 9986 +094 +094 066083 084 054 013 03

[Hurrilurker]

Looks like it's still in the low 920s? I expect to see it above 930 later today because of the land interaction but who knows, Irma has defied the odds before.

[NDG]

Some were questioning the last couple of days why Gov. Rick Scott declared a State of Emergency so early, this morning he definitely made the right decision days ago. It would had been total chaos today if the call would had been made just 72 hrs before landfall. I have never been his biggest fan but he has my respect, a great job so far.

[NDG]

Looks like it's still in the low 920s? I expect to see it above 930 later today because of the land interaction but who knows, Irma has defied the odds before.

VDM shows 921 mb, it still remains a very dangerous Cat 5.