ATL: IRMA - Models

[tolakram]

4 run trend, this time is is faster and maybe closer but I think it's just because it falls nearer a timepoint.

[Jevo]

They don't often mention the FSU Super in discussions, but but it is widely known that many of them swear by it, especially the old guard like Stacy Stewart and Lixion Avillia. That tells me that they are making sure to site all of their sources for their forecast of a potentially catastrophic event.

[ronjon]

I am reminded just how bad the GFS was for Harvey and how long it hung onto the wrong (west) solution.

Great point Mark...it was absolutely horrible sending Harvey out to west Tx in the 3-4 day timeframe.

[jlauderdal]

I am reminded just how bad the GFS was for Harvey and how long it hung onto the wrong (west) solution.

the gfs has never been the model of choice by nhc for irma...it cant be completely discounted but the euro has been excellent, hopefully gfs east of sofla solution verifies

[Big Easy Breeze]

I am reminded just how bad the GFS was for Harvey and how long it hung onto the wrong (west) solution.

Not a model expert, but I am not aware of a wrong solution. What is a wrong solution?

[tolakram]

I am reminded just how bad the GFS was for Harvey and how long it hung onto the wrong (west) solution.

Not a model expert, but I am not aware of a wrong solution. What is a wrong solution?

Had the storm going the wrong way, ended up in the wrong place. Nothing really fancier than that, though it makes me look smart to use the word solution I guess.

[Michele B]

I am reminded just how bad the GFS was for Harvey and how long it hung onto the wrong (west) solution.

I agree. GFS has never been my "go-to" model.

[ronjon]

Irma isn't gaining a great deal of latitude lately. While she'll clear Hispaniola, the more southern solutions (aka UKMET, ECM) appear to be verifying. One thing to watch over the next day or two is does Irma landfall in Cuba. Think its going to be close.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[Nimbus]

I am reminded just how bad the GFS was for Harvey and how long it hung onto the wrong (west) solution.

Not a model expert, but I am not aware of a wrong solution. What is a wrong solution?

Had the storm going the wrong way, ended up in the wrong place. Nothing really fancier than that, though it makes me look smart to use the word solution I guess.

Just a bunch of rail birds betting on a horse race here on storm2K, we don't have a liquor bar license though..

[tolakram]

6z HWRF nearly identical to previous run.

[Blown Away]

Nearly all these models that hit/just miss Fl, except Ukmet, do not have an E component, they all turn N or NNW @ Florida then NW into GA/SC/CONUS... The models consistent so far in continuing to block Irma from OTS...

[fendie]

6z HWRF nearly identical to previous run -[removed img]

6Z HWRF and 6Z GFS also nearly identical at 12Z Sun Sept 10th.

6Z HWRF landfalls about 50 miles Northeast of GFS though. Close to Charleston, SC at around 940 mb and 130 knot/150 mph maximum 900-mb winds.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Nearly all these models that hit/just miss Fl, except Ukmet, do not have an E component, they all turn N or NNW @ Florida then NW into GA/SC/CONUS... The models consistent so far in continuing to block Irma from OTS...

If there was ever a time I want for GFS to be right its in 72 hrs for Irma...

[caneman]

The UKMET is,a bit of concern for us on the West coast of Florida. Euro this far out still has a 75 mile error margin so were not out of the woods just yet

[Patrick99]

It's all about "the turn." Literally I would think it's still a crap shoot until Irma makes that turn. And there's no way - with the current technology we have - to understand exactly how much influence the ridges and troughs have on a storm. Oh, we DO now know they are pushed or pulled by them, but does a Stronger storm feel antrough more than a weaker one? Does a ridge cause strengthening in a weaker storm more than not?

Is the influence exactly the same based on how close the
Ridge is to every storm? There's
So much we're still speculating about because the science hasn't evolved that far yet.

And I'm sure it has to have something to do with how high up the cloud tops
Are as to how much the upper jet stream has influence on a storm. Does that change storm to storm based on each storm's internal structure?

Yeah, and as we saw with Charley, at this kind of an angle aiming at a thin peninsula, even small jogs one way or the other can make a big difference.

[Hurricane Andrew]

That model bias map is fascination...EVERY single model has been too far east...hmm...

[miamijaaz]

If there's ever been a time for the GFS to redeem itself, it's now.

[jlauderdal]

6z HWRF nearly identical to previous run.

we will take that track and call it a day..

[USTropics]

06z GFS ensembles have shifted west and are starting to come into better agreement:

[PTPatrick]

Hey fendie, don't the winds you mentioned on the euro for the big cities(Miami, ftl, WPB) seem low for a land falling 4 with a 920 pressure? I know at some point I saw that it had it strengthening upon landfall. 100 sustained with 160 gusts just seemed low. You think that is from it keeping the east eyewall slightly off shore?