ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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NDG
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6381 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:42 am

NDG wrote:
USCG_Hurricane_Watcher wrote:
plasticup wrote:Your local weather service.


Perhaps I should clarify...looking for a source beyond the local mets. Local news stated a couple of days ago, and I quote, "Irma may hit somewhere between Texas and Maine - or stay out at sea." So you can see my reluctance...additionally, my focus is somewhat more specific.


I would recommend to go by your local NWS forecast since we do not know what area specifically you are wanting information on, PM me and can look it up for you.


Unfortunately I do not see detailed winds forecast for your area, they just say "windy"

MondayPartly sunny, with a high near 74. Breezy.
Monday NightA chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
TuesdayA chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday NightA chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6382 Postby Patrick99 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:44 am

So, when I look at the water vapor loop for the eastern US, I see a trough draped all up and down the east coast. For the past 30 years of my life or so, whenever I've seen such a thing, that means a hurricane like Irma gets recurved out to sea before reaching Florida, typically in the Central Bahamas. Can anyone tell me *why* it's supposed to be different this time?

Also, let's talk intensity. NHC, in its latest discussion, is mentioning some shear in 72 hours and generally thinking it as a high Cat 4 on its approach near Florida. Yet, some on this board seem to be calling for sub-900 mb and a 1935 Labor Day redo. Who's correct?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6383 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:45 am

That NW eyewall is a killer.
Hope it doesn't stay that way on approach to FL.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6384 Postby JPmia » Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:46 am

NDG wrote:
NDG wrote:
USCG_Hurricane_Watcher wrote:
Perhaps I should clarify...looking for a source beyond the local mets. Local news stated a couple of days ago, and I quote, "Irma may hit somewhere between Texas and Maine - or stay out at sea." So you can see my reluctance...additionally, my focus is somewhat more specific.


I would recommend to go by your local NWS forecast since we do not know what area specifically you are wanting information on, PM me and can look it up for you.


Unfortunately I do not see detailed winds forecast for your area, they just say "windy"

MondayPartly sunny, with a high near 74. Breezy.
Monday NightA chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
TuesdayA chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday NightA chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 40%.


Weatherunderground provides wind forecasts, but those change with each model run possibly. At least you get numbers.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#6385 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:48 am

good night
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6386 Postby SkeetoBite » Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:49 am

USCG_Hurricane_Watcher wrote:Good morning - Looking for a reliable source of info regarding inland impacts @ landfall +1/+2 days...need to make a decision about moving 34 boats. If anyone has any recommended sources, PM me. Thanks!


You have a PM on this request.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6387 Postby Meteorcane » Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:55 am

Patrick99 wrote:So, when I look at the water vapor loop for the eastern US, I see a trough draped all up and down the east coast. For the past 30 years of my life or so, whenever I've seen such a thing, that means a hurricane like Irma gets recurved out to sea before reaching Florida, typically in the Central Bahamas. Can anyone tell me *why* it's supposed to be different this time?

Also, let's talk intensity. NHC, in its latest discussion, is mentioning some shear in 72 hours and generally thinking it as a high Cat 4 on its approach near Florida. Yet, some on this board seem to be calling for sub-900 mb and a 1935 Labor Day redo. Who's correct?


The trough is forecast to lift northward today and heights will rebound over the SE US, the impetus which will turn this more northward is actually a shortwave which you can see on WV over Wyoming/SD/Nebraska currently. After it turns north though ridging will build back it, which will not allow it to go NE out to Sea, but force it on a more westward trajectory.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6388 Postby flamingosun » Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:05 am

Palm Beach County to announce evacuation orders later this morning.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6389 Postby USCG_Hurricane_Watcher » Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:08 am

Pretty solid feedback from some of you...Thanks!!

I must have been really spoiled in Guam for the last three years with all the typhoon data the NWS, Fleet Weather Center and Air Force mets used to provide for us.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6390 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:09 am

NDG wrote:Some were questioning the last couple of days why Gov. Rick Scott declared a State of Emergency so early, this morning he definitely made the right decision days ago. It would had been total chaos today if the call would had been made just 72 hrs before landfall. I have never been his biggest fan but he has my respect, a great job so far.
se florida county govt's have done an excellent job getting ahead of it, waiting just increase anxiety and chaos...sometimes its less than expected but thats a good thing
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6391 Postby Patrick99 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:11 am

Another question. I'm aware I'm trying to grasp on to anything that might lessen the severity of Irma's impact on S. Florida, but hey, that's understandable, right, and beyond that, I do want to fully understand what's going on.

Take a look at the current extrapolated motion. It would cut just below Andros and into the middle-upper Keys, say Islamorada/Tavernier area. The extrapolated is north of NHC's current forecast track. Are we for sure expecting Irma to take more of a due westerly course soon, so it gets closer in line with the NHC track for its sickening approach on S. Florida? Otherwise, it would look like the current HWRF and/or GFS track is kind of on point for now, no?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6392 Postby bluespiderfl » Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:17 am

stupid question, but I noticed a near full moon this morning, wondering if that could make flooding worse on the eastern coast?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6393 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:20 am

Patrick99 wrote:So, when I look at the water vapor loop for the eastern US, I see a trough draped all up and down the east coast. For the past 30 years of my life or so, whenever I've seen such a thing, that means a hurricane like Irma gets recurved out to sea before reaching Florida, typically in the Central Bahamas. Can anyone tell me *why* it's supposed to be different this time?

Also, let's talk intensity. NHC, in its latest discussion, is mentioning some shear in 72 hours and generally thinking it as a high Cat 4 on its approach near Florida. Yet, some on this board seem to be calling for sub-900 mb and a 1935 Labor Day redo. Who's correct?


Long story short, the trough is not pushing east to push the ridge to the north of Irma out of the way, ridging will stay strong to the north of Irma until it reaches the FL Straights.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6394 Postby dukeblue219 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:20 am

The dropsonde in the NW quadrant averaged 160kt in the lowest 150m. It splashed at 127kt and found plenty of gusts over 170kt. She's not weakening, folks.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6395 Postby SkeetoBite » Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:21 am

bluespiderfl wrote:stupid question, but I noticed a near full moon this morning, wondering if that could make flooding worse on the eastern coast?


Tides have to do with the Moon's location, not it's fullness. There are no stupid questions.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6396 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:26 am

Looks like they went thru that new tower spiraling around just at the right time.
Crew will likely have to do their laundry when they land.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6397 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:27 am

The 11 pm forecast had Irma at 20.3 N 68.8 W by 8 am.
8 am advisory has Irma at 20.1 N 69.0 W.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6398 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:27 am

How much of a chance is a Myrtle Beach landfall? I am not able to get too much information on the area. Are we in the clear now?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6399 Postby Valhallalla » Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:29 am

SkeetoBite wrote:
bluespiderfl wrote:stupid question, but I noticed a near full moon this morning, wondering if that could make flooding worse on the eastern coast?


Tides have to do with the Moon's location, not it's fullness. There are no stupid questions.


Tides are indeed affected by the moon's phase. Tides are most extreme (higher high tide, lower low tide) during the full moon and to a lesser extent during the new moon.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6400 Postby SkeetoBite » Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:30 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:How much of a chance is a Myrtle Beach landfall? I am not able to get too much information on the area. Are we in the clear now?


If you are in the cone, your are NOT in the clear.
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