ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Hope everyone in florida is prepped and ready...

Thanks Aric. I am pretty much done with my preps. Here at home. I am always concerned about trees and limbs being an issue. Several trees got felled herein my neighborhood. during Matthew last October. So, I am concerned about that aspect for sure .Making sure all loose objects etc... are removed and secured here at my home.

[Aric Dunn]

Well yes, I mean, I see she is down to 180 as opposed to 185 which is only a small amount, but is this likely a trend or is this likely a result of being so close to land atm.

Just remember the Environent as oit approaches florida is going to be really really good.. so dont let it fool you. this could still come in as a cat 5..

[KBBOCA]

Folks quick question any reason why Vero beach isn't in the hurricane watch? Iam asumming tommorow hurricane warnings go up for southern part of the state then vero should be in a watch. Reason Iam asking is because my grandma lives up there. Thx

I think it's a question of timing - 48 hours / 72 hours impacts. But NHC did say that watches will likely go up for the further north areas of FL later today, I believe. Thus basically the NHC has already said watches are going up even if they can't officially issue them yet.

3. The threat of dangerous major hurricane impacts in Florida
continues to increase. A hurricane watch has been issued for south
Florida, the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay. This
watch will likely be expanded northward later today. Residents in
these areas should heed any advice given by local officials.

[RL3AO]

Shameful stuff from WESH. Might get people killed.

[PTPatrick]

Looking at that Wv loop it appears there is decent amount of dry air ahead of Irma. Perhaps it will suck some up?

[CryHavoc]

Shameful stuff from WESH. Might get people killed.

What are they saying now?

[znel52]

Looking at that Wv loop it appears there is decent amount of dry air ahead of Irma. Perhaps it will suck some up?

It's been in front of her for a long time now and it hasn't been an issue. Irma is in her own little protected pouch. If shear increases as forecast it might drive some into her core though.

[otowntiger]

Shameful stuff from WESH. Might get people killed.

I missed it. what are they doing/saying?

[Sanibel]

The call right now is to stay on Sanibel but I am watching with the mind of getting out at the first hint of west...I spoke to an old time Floridian on the island yesterday and he said "we are all staying"...


This is a tough one because it looks like it could come to the "spine" where we might get 100mph north winds which will create a bay-side surge...


All cards still on the table here...Getting furniture off the porch and packing irreplaceable portables and files etc...

[Emmett_Brown]

The NHC path is always more accurate than any model. No need to use models at this range, and never to make decisions. (Although model runs sure are interesting to watch...)

[tolakram]

Shameful stuff from WESH. Might get people killed.

What are they saying now?

I took the posts down. It sounds like they are showing GFS ensembles which has a couple of members well offshore. People looking for straws will find straws.

[GCANE]

VIS earlier this morning with Lightening-Mapper data embedded.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071523
AF305 1711A IRMA HDOB 39 20170907
151400 2103N 06824W 6965 03145 0056 +094 +094 144080 082 052 006 00
151430 2105N 06824W 6967 03144 //// +088 //// 140077 080 053 005 01
151500 2108N 06824W 6966 03143 0035 +093 +092 138077 078 053 003 01
151530 2110N 06825W 6970 03137 0037 +094 +092 135078 078 054 003 00
151600 2112N 06825W 6969 03141 //// +091 //// 135077 078 055 002 01
151630 2115N 06825W 6965 03146 0039 +091 +090 136077 077 055 002 01
151700 2117N 06826W 6965 03148 0042 +094 +083 134077 078 054 002 00
151730 2119N 06826W 6969 03147 0043 +095 +076 132077 077 054 002 00
151800 2121N 06826W 6967 03148 0040 +099 +065 131077 077 055 001 00
151830 2123N 06827W 6966 03151 0036 +102 +074 131079 079 055 002 00
151900 2126N 06827W 6969 03149 0039 +102 +074 129081 082 054 002 00
151930 2128N 06827W 6967 03153 0041 +101 +077 129081 081 054 001 00
152000 2130N 06828W 6963 03160 0049 +096 +077 128082 083 052 004 00
152030 2132N 06828W 6970 03154 0037 +108 +069 128081 083 053 003 00
152100 2134N 06828W 6967 03160 0036 +111 +059 128083 083 052 002 00
152130 2137N 06828W 6963 03167 0036 +114 +047 129083 084 050 003 00
152200 2139N 06829W 6969 03161 0043 +111 +046 129081 083 049 003 00
152230 2141N 06829W 6970 03160 0052 +104 +053 130080 081 048 002 00
152300 2143N 06829W 6970 03160 0050 +105 +052 129078 081 047 001 00
152330 2146N 06830W 6965 03174 0055 +103 +062 131077 078 048 002 00
$$
;

[MGC]

Can we talk for a moment about intensity forecasts?

To anyone who's hanging onto the idea that Irma may weaken significantly before landfall -- please don't.

We are getting much better with storm path and have been over the years, but our intensity forecasts are still pretty much a crapshoot. Most models and official forecasts have had Irma weakening well before now, and aside from the GFS going ballistic with that 880 forecast, most of our intensity models are pretty conservative. In what, 12 hours she's supposed to be down to 145mph and I think even the most optimistic (or pessimistic) forecaster would say that a drop of 35mph is unlikely at this point.

Even if Irma weakens to "merely" (massive dose of sarcasm there) a high-end cat 4 at landfall, it is still a life threatening situation if you are in the path of the storm. You don't need to be in the eyewall to get caught in a tornado or sudden wind gust. And there's still a good chance that she comes ashore as a cat 5. Remember, a "low-end" cat 4 just devastated Texas and caught a bunch of people off-guard.

Please don't hang hopes on winds abating significantly. It's incredibly improbable that Irma will weaken to the point where it will not be a life threatening situation if you are caught in a less than idea place.

This is a life-threatening situation under the best of circumstances if Irma makes landfall in Florida.

Well said. I don't see any significant causes to weaken Irma. SST along her projected path on get warmer, with lots of heat to fuel her. No shear is ahead until well north of South Florida. I don't see any dry air ahead, might have some downslope effects off Hispaniola today. No land interaction to disrupt the circulation. If Irma makes landfall just south of Miami it will pace much of Miami on the bad side of Irma. Major wind damage. Only hope is that Irma turns sooner than forecast and misses Florida......MGC

[Bamagirl2408]

Does anyone have real time reports of traffic and gas situation from north Florida up into GA? Any info will be greatly appreciated.

The app Gas Buddy I heard on news was showing where gas was available.

[RL3AO]

Shameful stuff from WESH. Might get people killed.

I missed it. what are they doing/saying?

viewtopic.php?p=2632665#p2632665

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071533
AF305 1711A IRMA HDOB 40 20170907
152400 2148N 06830W 6967 03166 0061 +099 +073 132078 079 048 002 00
152430 2150N 06831W 6961 03182 0062 +100 +070 131076 079 048 005 03
152500 2151N 06833W 6971 03173 0075 +094 +073 129076 077 /// /// 03
152530 2150N 06834W 6975 03159 0049 +112 +050 128071 075 045 002 00
152600 2149N 06835W 6965 03168 0044 +112 +047 129074 074 046 001 00
152630 2147N 06837W 6967 03162 0044 +109 +051 126073 075 047 002 00
152700 2146N 06838W 6966 03164 0047 +104 +057 124074 075 048 001 00
152730 2145N 06840W 6966 03163 0048 +102 +049 124077 078 048 001 00
152800 2144N 06841W 6967 03155 0047 +102 +055 124078 078 050 002 00
152830 2142N 06842W 6967 03158 0040 +106 +057 121079 080 052 002 00
152900 2141N 06844W 6967 03157 0037 +106 +057 120081 082 053 002 00
152930 2140N 06845W 6968 03153 0041 +096 +082 122080 081 054 001 01
153000 2138N 06847W 6967 03149 0038 +098 +079 122082 082 056 002 00
153030 2137N 06848W 6968 03144 0031 +101 +071 122078 081 057 001 00
153100 2136N 06849W 6967 03143 0030 +100 +079 123077 077 059 001 00
153130 2135N 06851W 6970 03138 0029 +099 +083 124077 078 057 001 00
153200 2133N 06852W 6967 03138 0029 +095 +089 124077 077 058 001 00
153230 2132N 06853W 6968 03136 0022 +099 +086 124078 078 057 001 00
153300 2131N 06855W 6966 03133 0018 +100 +085 124080 081 058 001 00
153330 2130N 06856W 6965 03133 0016 +098 +091 122079 080 058 002 00
$$
;

[Fountainguy97]

Well said. I don't see any significant causes to weaken Irma. SST along her projected path on get warmer, with lots of heat to fuel her. No shear is ahead until well north of South Florida. I don't see any dry air ahead, might have some downslope effects off Hispaniola today. No land interaction to disrupt the circulation. If Irma makes landfall just south of Miami it will pace much of Miami on the bad side of Irma. Major wind damage. Only hope is that Irma turns sooner than forecast and misses Florida......MGC

I will not be surprised to see this be extremely hard to pin down. We are only a couple days out from the north turn and STILL have models spread across 50+ miles and shifting each run. It really may come down to a "wobble east or west" that could save or destroy (probably not the best word) Miami. And those wobbles are impossible to predict

[otowntiger]

Shameful stuff from WESH. Might get people killed.

What are they saying now?

I took the posts down. It sounds like they are showing GFS ensembles which has a couple of members well offshore. People looking for straws will find straws.

One thing I've noticed in the local storm coverage relative what the local mets are saying is that they are much more reserved and hesitant to say what we can expect here, specifically. I think they all got burned last year saying Matthew would be worse here than Charley and they were saying that even as you could clearly see at the time that the trajectory of the storm was going to be much further east than what they were tying their forecast of doom and gloom to. For this storm they have been much more careful in what they say, I noticed especially WFTV..they don't want to say how strong the winds could get here except that the storm could still move further away and that would be good. They are sticking with the NHC forecast which is not too bad for metro Orlando, although obviously much worse on the coast directly east of here, but it could be me but it really seems like a concerted effort to almost downplay it. I know they still say to prepare for 'hurricane conditions, etc. but no over the top statements for sure. To be fair the angle of approach for Matthew for us last year looked much more ominous than Irma's since it would have potentially much less land to cover. For Irma to get over or very near us she will have a bunch of land to go over.

[Zarniwoop]

That might be the most incredible hurricane footage I have ever watched.

Though I doubt he'd be so confident in the structure of that building if he were in an EF4/EF5 tornado.

do we know what wind speeds they got at St Thomas?

The gust just after the 4.00 minute mark is incredible. The Ritz Carlton is a very nice way to ride out a Cat 5!

The guy thought he was actually seeing 180 mph winds.

Its blowing hard, but give me a break.