ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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rickybobby
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6601 Postby rickybobby » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:12 am

95 is not moving in Daytona. Most gas stations have gas but the lines are huge. Walmart and publix parking lots are packed.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6602 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:13 am

Meteorcane wrote:
Kingslayer1254 wrote:
sweetpea wrote:
WOW, that is crazy. I can't even imagine.



I just went on their Twitter to see it... I didn't find it.


Is in their hurricane watch local statement for their east coastal zones https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... ne%20watch

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible devastating impacts
across South Florida. Potential impacts include:
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
may be uninhabitable for weeks or months
.

- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible devastating impacts
across coastal Collier, Mainland Monroe, coastal Miami-Dade counties
including Biscayne Bay. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
stressed.
- Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
- Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
onshore and stranded.

Also, prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
to extensive impacts across immediate coastal Broward and Palm Beach
counties.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6603 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:14 am

Steve wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:i enjoying my home wont be by sunday afternoon i live miami and mobile home :( we lucky other hurr were weaker this king hurr hit miami since Andrew :( :(


What are your plans to deal with the threat? Is there a close by shelter, or are you going to stay with friends and relatives?

staying with inlaws very strong building
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#6604 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:16 am

URNT15 KNHC 071613
AF305 1711A IRMA HDOB 44 20170907
160400 2051N 06958W 6957 02658 9465 +140 +140 093149 151 126 053 03
160430 2053N 06958W 6984 02656 9517 +135 +135 091151 152 121 077 03
160500 2054N 06958W 6969 02713 9576 +116 +116 093146 149 /// /// 03
160530 2055N 06958W 6959 02764 9608 +119 +119 095143 145 /// /// 03
160600 2057N 06958W 6977 02770 9638 +123 +123 095142 145 115 029 00
160630 2058N 06958W 6967 02810 9677 +110 //// 094137 143 119 017 01
160700 2100N 06958W 6970 02836 9691 +108 //// 093132 136 113 008 01
160730 2101N 06958W 6964 02865 9697 +122 +122 094125 129 107 007 00
160800 2103N 06958W 6973 02876 9733 +107 //// 092122 125 107 005 01
160830 2104N 06958W 6963 02904 9737 +117 +115 093119 121 102 005 01
160900 2106N 06957W 6968 02920 //// +117 //// 094116 119 102 006 01
160930 2107N 06957W 6968 02927 9774 +119 //// 091112 116 099 004 01
161000 2109N 06957W 6967 02940 9794 +123 +123 093109 111 092 006 00
161030 2110N 06957W 6963 02958 9835 +117 +117 099120 122 090 011 00
161100 2112N 06957W 6970 02962 9862 +107 +107 094122 125 089 014 00
161130 2113N 06957W 6964 02980 9880 +099 +099 093122 124 085 018 00
161200 2115N 06957W 6963 02991 9896 +097 +097 092115 120 084 016 00
161230 2116N 06957W 6969 02998 9904 +093 +093 091114 115 080 012 00
161300 2118N 06957W 6967 03008 9916 +095 +095 090112 114 080 012 00
161330 2119N 06957W 6966 03018 9924 +092 +092 091109 111 076 008 00
$$
;

Large area of major hurricane force winds.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6605 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:18 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6606 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:20 am

GCANE wrote:Image

Weakening but that's pretty much redundant at this point.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6607 Postby Meteorcane » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:21 am

Pressure is rising a little bit winds maybe slightly down, still a Cat.5 though and while it could fluctuate here or there will probably be a 4-5 on closest approach to FL, now that significant interaction with Cuba looks unlikely.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6608 Postby sponger » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:21 am

Premium only for World Golf Village and I95 in St Augustine. Topped off with 4 more gallons plus I already had 41 gallons for the generator. That gives me 90 in total! Publix not bad, no water, no propane. I have 4 kids so it does not take me long to get 4 or 5 milk jugs to freeze filtered water for the inevitable power loss. FPL goes all the way to Miami so we lost power for a week for Frances and 4 days for Jeanne. This could be every bit as bad or worse. 5 million with out power for Frances and Miami was spared! Still have the 2004 generator ready to go!
Last edited by sponger on Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:23 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6609 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:21 am

sponger wrote:
GCANE wrote:Sun shot a very large X-Class flare yesterday and seeing some M-class flares in its wake.
Satellite disruptions are possible next couple days.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g3-watch- ... me-effects


Good grief!


Biggest flare in more than a decade.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6610 Postby nativefloridian » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:22 am

rickybobby wrote:95 is not moving in Daytona. Most gas stations have gas but the lines are huge. Walmart and publix parking lots are packed.


I hear you! Don't know about the highways, but city roads here in Broward County are very busy, grocery stores packed, and long, long gas station lines! Glad I'm done with preps and I hope all who will be affected get their preps completed before it's too late!!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6611 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:22 am

jhpigott wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:WOW NWS twitter, according to the TWC, are strong with their wording :double:

"...Miami and parts of SFL will be inhabitable for weeks and maybe even months"



link? I didn't see that on NWS' twitter feed


Yeah, they read that nws Miami statement earlier on twc
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6612 Postby sponger » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:24 am

nativefloridian wrote:
rickybobby wrote:95 is not moving in Daytona. Most gas stations have gas but the lines are huge. Walmart and publix parking lots are packed.


I hear you! Don't know about the highways, but city roads here in Broward County are very busy, grocery stores packed, and long, long gas station lines! Glad I'm done with preps and I hope all who will be affected get their preps completed before it's too late!!


It feels good to be done with obtaining supplies. Everything else to do is at home!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6613 Postby Steve » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:26 am

Glad to hear it floridasun78. I look forward to reading your aftermath reports, and I'm glad y'all have a local place you can get to!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#6614 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:26 am

URNT15 KNHC 071623
AF305 1711A IRMA HDOB 45 20170907
161400 2121N 06957W 6966 03027 9911 +092 +091 092109 109 077 009 00
161430 2123N 06957W 6963 03042 9931 +098 +098 092105 108 075 007 00
161500 2124N 06957W 6970 03039 9952 +096 +096 090102 104 072 014 00
161530 2126N 06957W 6958 03057 9947 +094 +094 091101 104 071 016 00
161600 2127N 06957W 6971 03050 9948 +096 +096 092099 101 071 008 00
161630 2129N 06957W 6967 03065 9956 +093 +092 096098 100 070 009 00
161700 2131N 06957W 6967 03067 9953 +095 +084 098099 100 064 007 00
161730 2132N 06957W 6966 03074 9956 +095 +090 097097 098 065 005 00
161800 2134N 06957W 6967 03078 9966 +101 //// 098097 098 064 005 01
161830 2136N 06957W 6978 03072 9998 +095 //// 095092 097 064 007 01
161900 2137N 06957W 6961 03097 9970 +100 +095 097093 094 063 005 00
161930 2139N 06957W 6969 03093 9975 +097 +094 097091 092 062 004 00
162000 2141N 06957W 6967 03098 9983 +096 //// 095092 093 062 004 01
162030 2143N 06957W 6967 03103 9987 +097 +083 095094 095 062 004 00
162100 2144N 06957W 6968 03103 9992 +099 +078 097093 094 060 003 00
162130 2146N 06957W 6965 03114 0000 +093 +089 098093 094 060 003 00
162200 2148N 06957W 6970 03111 9999 +098 +086 099090 092 058 003 00
162230 2150N 06957W 6966 03122 0002 +100 +088 099089 090 058 003 00
162300 2151N 06957W 6965 03127 0006 +100 +087 100088 088 057 003 00
162330 2153N 06957W 6969 03129 0016 +095 +090 099087 088 055 003 03
$$
;
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6615 Postby CDO62 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:26 am

It looks like she has missed the last 2 way-points to the North. Doesn't appear to have just been a wobble.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6616 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:29 am

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znel52

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6617 Postby znel52 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:30 am

I know the price of everything is higher today than ever but the fact that we might have the 2 most costly hurricanes in history both in one season is shocking. This season will be remembered for a long time to come.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6618 Postby KBBOCA » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:35 am

nativefloridian wrote:
rickybobby wrote:95 is not moving in Daytona. Most gas stations have gas but the lines are huge. Walmart and publix parking lots are packed.


I hear you! Don't know about the highways, but city roads here in Broward County are very busy, grocery stores packed, and long, long gas station lines! Glad I'm done with preps and I hope all who will be affected get their preps completed before it's too late!!


I had to chuckle. My brother in Charlotte NC just got 2 of the last 4 cases of water at the Harris Teeter near his house. Said it was a total zoo and that "it reminded him of Publix in Boca before Floyd!" (I think he may have been exaggerating just a wee bit... but still!)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6619 Postby plasticup » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:35 am

znel52 wrote:I know the price of everything is higher today than ever but the fact that we might have the 2 most costly hurricanes in history both in one season is shocking. This season will be remembered for a long time to come.

Big storms are common, but direct hits on large metro areas are not. This has been a freakishly unlucky season.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#6620 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:37 am

URNT15 KNHC 071633
AF305 1711A IRMA HDOB 46 20170907
162400 2155N 06958W 6965 03134 0024 +093 +092 096086 087 /// /// 05
162430 2155N 07001W 6975 03117 //// +091 //// 092084 084 054 002 01
162500 2154N 07004W 6964 03130 //// +091 //// 093085 085 054 002 01
162530 2154N 07006W 6969 03124 //// +090 //// 092084 085 054 003 01
162600 2155N 07009W 6965 03125 //// +090 //// 089084 084 054 002 01
162630 2155N 07012W 6970 03123 0017 +093 +091 088084 084 055 001 01
162700 2155N 07014W 6969 03128 0026 +089 +087 084082 084 055 002 01
162730 2155N 07017W 6961 03135 0026 +088 +083 083083 085 055 002 01
162800 2155N 07020W 6967 03128 0025 +089 +086 082085 086 055 003 00
162830 2155N 07022W 6968 03127 //// +085 //// 081086 087 055 004 01
162900 2155N 07025W 6968 03130 0031 +085 +082 079084 084 056 002 00
162930 2155N 07028W 6966 03135 0030 +089 +076 078083 083 053 003 00
163000 2155N 07030W 6968 03134 0030 +090 +070 079080 083 049 004 00
163030 2156N 07033W 6939 03153 0018 +091 //// 083080 084 048 011 05
163100 2156N 07036W 7004 03077 0064 +091 //// 072087 091 037 040 01
163130 2156N 07038W 6970 03120 0082 +055 //// 062092 096 047 031 01
163200 2156N 07041W 6955 03144 0086 +068 +068 059092 097 047 022 00
163230 2156N 07043W 6970 03128 0080 +073 +073 059088 088 049 020 00
163300 2156N 07046W 6965 03141 0085 +071 +071 062093 094 043 021 00
163330 2156N 07048W 6960 03151 0061 +080 +071 058088 095 049 006 00
$$
;

Once these winds penetrate to the surface, the wind field will be HUGE.
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