ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8941 Postby Jevo » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:19 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:
Jevo wrote:The only saving grace for GA at this point is most models have the storm at a borderline Cat 1/2.. Couldn't image a 4 pushing water up into that area. Irregardless depending on which model you look at, FL still has to deal with Irma as a Cat 4. The GFS is coming East this run by about 20 miles on approach and if it's ensembles are any measure we may see that encroach upon the FL East coast with later runs.

Jevo, the GFS has it as a 4 into GA...and even the NHC has it as a 3 on approach.


I apologize.. I fat fingered my iphone buttons.. Meant to say borderline 2/3
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8942 Postby shawn6304 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:20 am

From that last GFS am I calculating correctly that tropical storm force winds for south east florida from Saturday at 6am to Monday at 10am ish?

Someone tell me I am way off please.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8943 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:20 am

The reality the GFS really isnt that far removed to the east...literally 50 miles maybe. The difference though in that 50 miles would be billions of dollars considering it would keep Irmas east quads off shore. Modeling is all but locked in in regards to FL impacts.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8944 Postby Steve » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:21 am

Also, CMC is about to make second landfall at 102 hours near to the Savannah River but probably on the SC side of the border. In the upper levels, CMC is now also faster with the trough existing the NE Coast and the high building in. This follows the NAM and GFS showing the stronger Canadian High Pressure building in that we've been talking about for a week.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=591
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8945 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:21 am

gatorcane wrote:Anybody have text UKMET?



12UTC 07.09.2017 20.0N 69.0W INTENSE
00UTC 08.09.2017 21.2N 71.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 08.09.2017 21.7N 74.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2017 22.0N 76.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2017 22.0N 78.7W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 10.09.2017 22.5N 80.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2017 23.3N 80.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2017 24.7N 81.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2017 26.7N 81.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2017 29.4N 81.1W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 12.09.2017 31.9N 81.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2017 34.2N 81.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.09.2017 35.9N 80.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

Track is very similar to 00z run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8946 Postby Steve » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:23 am

Pughetime12 wrote:
Steve wrote:Yeah, GFS is still probably too far east. It's got Irma near to coming in along the GA Coast at 96 hours (which is valid Monday at 7am). It's probably a little too deep and a little too far east still though the 2nd landfall point makes sense in its run and will probably be at least close.


If it comes in more west, wouldn't it come in further down in Georgia? With it getting pushed NW once it's in Georgia, I'm wondering if that would lessen some of the wind speeds in the coastal areas of GA/SC.


Possibly so. Sorry about the ambiguous post there. What I mean to say was that first landfall and inside of 80 hours would probably trend still west. The second landfall point looks as good as any. Assuming it does get back into the SE Atlantic, which I would agree with the NHC that it should, it could be anywhere along the SC/GA Coastline, my only beef is that since GFS is farther east earlier (more time over water), it deepens it probably more than it should before GA/SC Landfall. Hope that makes more sense.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8947 Postby Meteorcane » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:24 am

shawn6304 wrote:From that last GFS am I calculating correctly that tropical storm force winds for south east florida from Saturday at 6am to Monday at 10am ish?

Someone tell me I am way off please.


Looking at a point near Miami beach sustained tropical storm force winds on the GFS arrive around 11AM local on Saturday and ending late Sunday night/very early monday morning.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8948 Postby chris_fit » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:27 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Anybody have text UKMET?



12UTC 07.09.2017 20.0N 69.0W INTENSE
00UTC 08.09.2017 21.2N 71.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 08.09.2017 21.7N 74.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2017 22.0N 76.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2017 22.0N 78.7W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 10.09.2017 22.5N 80.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2017 23.3N 80.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2017 24.7N 81.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2017 26.7N 81.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2017 29.4N 81.1W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 12.09.2017 31.9N 81.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2017 34.2N 81.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.09.2017 35.9N 80.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

Track is very similar to 00z run.


Eyeballing it, landfall around Marathon Key then up the spine - not sure if it's E/W of the 00Z
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8949 Postby ronjon » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:28 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Anybody have text UKMET?



12UTC 07.09.2017 20.0N 69.0W INTENSE
00UTC 08.09.2017 21.2N 71.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 08.09.2017 21.7N 74.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2017 22.0N 76.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2017 22.0N 78.7W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 10.09.2017 22.5N 80.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2017 23.3N 80.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2017 24.7N 81.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2017 26.7N 81.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2017 29.4N 81.1W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 12.09.2017 31.9N 81.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2017 34.2N 81.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.09.2017 35.9N 80.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

Track is very similar to 00z run.


Well inland in Florida. Landfall at Big Pine Key, moves N-NW west of Lake O, and runs up straight thru Orlando.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8950 Postby USTropics » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:29 am

12z UKMET plots:

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8951 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:29 am

ronjon wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Anybody have text UKMET?



12UTC 07.09.2017 20.0N 69.0W INTENSE
00UTC 08.09.2017 21.2N 71.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 08.09.2017 21.7N 74.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2017 22.0N 76.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2017 22.0N 78.7W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 10.09.2017 22.5N 80.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2017 23.3N 80.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2017 24.7N 81.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2017 26.7N 81.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2017 29.4N 81.1W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 12.09.2017 31.9N 81.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2017 34.2N 81.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.09.2017 35.9N 80.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

Track is very similar to 00z run.


Well inland in Florida. Landfall at Big Pine Key, moves N-NW west of Lake O, and runs up straight thru Orlando.


Right or not it sticks to its guns...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8952 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:29 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Anybody have text UKMET?



12UTC 07.09.2017 20.0N 69.0W INTENSE
00UTC 08.09.2017 21.2N 71.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 08.09.2017 21.7N 74.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2017 22.0N 76.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2017 22.0N 78.7W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 10.09.2017 22.5N 80.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2017 23.3N 80.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2017 24.7N 81.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2017 26.7N 81.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2017 29.4N 81.1W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 12.09.2017 31.9N 81.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2017 34.2N 81.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.09.2017 35.9N 80.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

Track is very similar to 00z run.


Very little change in the track compared to last night's, what I can tell.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8953 Postby lando » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:30 am

I don't care about the "sudden" consistency of the gfs, I'll put my eggs in ukm basket
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8954 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:31 am

UKMET pretty much locked in on a SE FL hit, up through the spine or a couple of miles east of it.

This run knocks out Metro Dade and Broward.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8955 Postby plasticup » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:31 am

USTropics wrote:12z UKMET plots:

Image

Inland over Cuba? Surely that affects her intensity.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8956 Postby ronjon » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:32 am

Wonder now based on the westward trends in models if the Euro will shift west.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8957 Postby ronjon » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:33 am

Wonder now based on the westward trends in models if the Euro will shift west. Starting to look more and more like a possible Donna path.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8958 Postby Steve » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:33 am

lando wrote:I don't care about the "sudden" consistency of the gfs, I'll put my eggs in ukm basket


I'm not sure it's right though. It's the only model (or one of the only major models) to still insist that it goes over Cuba, and not just a brush-by either. Once in a while it is right when it is an outlier (reference Ivan 2004, Matthew 2016). I'm not sure this time. If I only had one model basket, it would be the ECMWF which has even outperformed the NHC so far with Irma.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8959 Postby BucMan2 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:33 am

Ronjon-

How serious do we take the UKM model and that track if verified would change impacts on the west coast is that correct?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#8960 Postby plasticup » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:38 am

Steve wrote:
lando wrote:I don't care about the "sudden" consistency of the gfs, I'll put my eggs in ukm basket


I'm not sure it's right though. It's the only model (or one of the only major models) to still insist that it goes over Cuba, and not just a brush-by either. Once in a while it is right when it is an outlier (reference Ivan 2004, Matthew 2016). I'm not sure this time. If I only had one model basket, it would be the ECMWF which has even outperformed the NHC so far with Irma.

UKMET is also showing a Cuba landfall.
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