ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KBBOCA]

Just heard my cousins in Palm Beach County aren't evacuating. So frustrating. Any idea what they can expect?

Palm Beach County is large. Impact to coastal area (east of 95) will quite probably be different from areas further west... Also depends on type of house, etc. Need more detail for folks to be able to answer this type of question. But in any case, the best answers are from local emergency managers, the NHC, and local NWS statements.

[hurricaneCW]

I'm in Santiago de los Caballeros in the DOminican Republic the winds are picking up, lot of rains, lot of trees have fallen in different parts of the country and floods things aren't looking that good

Thank you for the update from there and good luck. I know that whole island is being overlooked but if history is any indication, then flooding from Irma could cause a significant loss of life on there.

[gboudx]

Apologies for the 101 level question:

Would more land interaction (over Cuba, for example) slow the forward speed of Irma, and if this were to happen, would that be enough of a change in forward speed to affect the track of the storm? Or would the only effect of more land interaction be the lessening of intensity of the storm?

Could potentially weaken it, but not slow it's forward speed.

[AutoPenalti]

I think my brother is fascinated with the first big test of my Dads over engineered roof he installed in Margate FL. If this track comes in a bit West of forecast, he will get his wish.

How far from the turnpike do you live? Are you relatively close to State Rd 7?

Just East for Dad! Pays 3 times what I do for homeowners insurance as a result.

That's cool! I live around 5 minutes away then! Praying for him and everyone in the city!

[newtotex]

Just heard my cousins in Palm Beach County aren't evacuating. So frustrating. Any idea what they can expect?

Palm Beach County is large. Impact to coastal area (east of 95) will be different from areas further west... Also depends on type of house, etc. Need more detail for folks to be able this type of question.

Something that is going to be interesting to watch if it moves up through Dade/Broward/PB Counties is what is going to happen with Lake Okeechobee. It can have it's own storm surge, which has been a problem in the past

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 071653
AF305 1711A IRMA HDOB 48 20170907
164400 2153N 07129W 6966 03160 0059 +090 +085 052060 062 042 007 00
164430 2151N 07128W 6969 03153 0056 +089 +085 052064 065 042 008 00
164500 2150N 07126W 6966 03157 0074 +084 +084 048065 066 042 011 00
164530 2149N 07125W 6968 03150 0089 +089 +089 050072 078 041 017 00
164600 2148N 07124W 6970 03142 0083 +086 +086 050074 078 047 028 00
164630 2147N 07123W 6991 03104 0063 +098 +098 045073 078 041 034 03
164700 2146N 07121W 6974 03120 0044 +106 //// 037060 075 027 060 05
164730 2144N 07120W 6969 03143 0059 +112 +112 052062 071 066 017 03
164800 2143N 07119W 6967 03146 0030 +103 +072 052074 075 063 014 00
164830 2142N 07118W 6963 03144 0037 +093 +058 053073 074 045 003 00
164900 2141N 07116W 6967 03135 0029 +097 +062 055074 075 044 002 00
164930 2140N 07115W 6970 03132 0024 +099 +063 053075 075 043 003 00
165000 2139N 07114W 6971 03131 0020 +101 +057 054076 078 042 003 00
165030 2138N 07113W 6966 03132 0019 +098 +058 052072 074 045 002 00
165100 2136N 07111W 6967 03124 0025 +089 +065 048072 074 044 002 00
165130 2135N 07110W 6974 03114 0038 +083 +082 051070 072 046 005 00
165200 2134N 07109W 6967 03119 0033 +089 +088 050070 074 046 010 03
165230 2133N 07108W 6957 03125 0020 +090 +089 049074 077 048 007 00
165300 2132N 07106W 6969 03104 0010 +085 +080 053076 077 067 007 00
165330 2131N 07105W 6965 03113 0003 +089 +082 055078 079 065 007 03
$$
;

Someone else please take over - busy for most of the afternoon.

[SkeetoBite]

Use this site to view graphical local forecast conditions by your local NWS office: https://graphical.weather.gov/

From the main page, click the map of the U.S. and continue clicking your region, etc. to drill down to the local area.

For example, this is the Sunday Marine forecast tab based on the most recent forecast data. Obviously this data changes with each forecast period and becomes more precise the closer to real time you view it. It is interesting to note that 40' seas are forecast for the immediate offshore areas of Miami Sunday morning.

[gboudx]

Just heard my cousins in Palm Beach County aren't evacuating. So frustrating. Any idea what they can expect?

Palm Beach County is large. Impact to coastal area (east of 95) will be different from areas further west... Also depends on type of house, etc. Need more detail for folks to be able this type of question.

Something that is going to be interesting to watch if it moves up through Dade/Broward/PB Counties is what is going to happen with Lake Okeechobee. It can have it's own storm surge, which has been a problem in the past

Yes. This happens with Lake Ponchartrain in SELA as well, even with strong blue northers.

[Centralflamama]

Just heard my cousins in Palm Beach County aren't evacuating. So frustrating. Any idea what they can expect?

Palm Beach County is large. Impact to coastal area (east of 95) will quite probably be different from areas further west... Also depends on type of house, etc. Need more detail for folks to be able to answer this type of question. But in any case, the best answers are from local emergency managers, the NHC, and local NWS statements.

Large homes, fairly new construction. They have deep pockets. Not sure how far inland they are though

[plazaglass]

I'm usually pretty decisive, but I'm really on the fence about the stay-or-go decision on this one. We in the Jacksonville area, house is three blocks from the beach. We're putting up shutters, have everything organized to load into the cars, and have a hotel reservation near Macon, GA. We also have tons of food and water if we stay, a generator and gas to run it for probably 10 days, etc.

That little gap between our coast and the center of the track is probably giving me more hope than I should have.

Just don't know what to do.

[newtotex]

Palm Beach County is large. Impact to coastal area (east of 95) will be different from areas further west... Also depends on type of house, etc. Need more detail for folks to be able this type of question.

Something that is going to be interesting to watch if it moves up through Dade/Broward/PB Counties is what is going to happen with Lake Okeechobee. It can have it's own storm surge, which has been a problem in the past

Yes. This happens with Lake Ponchartrain in SELA as well, even with strong blue northers.

True. I feel bad for the inland communities in Broward and PB Counties, they are mostly poor and agricultural with not-so-great construction. I think a lot of people forget about that when they think of South FL

[sponger]

How far from the turnpike do you live? Are you relatively close to State Rd 7?

Just East for Dad! Pays 3 times what I do for homeowners insurance as a result.

That's cool! I live around 5 minutes away then! Praying for him and everyone in the city!

Stay safe! This can easily be worse than Wilma! I will never forget driving in down Cypress Creek at 10:00 the night of that storm. All of the concrete power poles on 441 were snapped in half.

[ronjon]

Just heard my cousins in Palm Beach County aren't evacuating. So frustrating. Any idea what they can expect?

Palm Beach County is large. Impact to coastal area (east of 95) will be different from areas further west... Also depends on type of house, etc. Need more detail for folks to be able this type of question.

Something that is going to be interesting to watch if it moves up through Dade/Broward/PB Counties is what is going to happen with Lake Okeechobee. It can have it's own storm surge, which has been a problem in the past

The South Florida Water Mgmt District has been releasing water (lowering the lake level) since the Governor's state of emergency declaration due to this potential issue.

[KBBOCA]

Use this site to view graphical local forecast conditions by your local NWS office: https://graphical.weather.gov/

From the main page, click the map of the U.S. and continue clicking your region, etc. to drill down to the local area.

For example, this is the Sunday Marine forecast tab based on the most recent forecast data. Obviously this data changes with each forecast period and becomes more precise the closer to real time you view it. It is interesting to note that 40' seas are forecast for the immediate offshore areas of Miami Sunday morning.

GREAT RESOURCE, THANKS!

[poof121]

A bit of levity...
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10107574342573795&id=23401601

[newtotex]

I'm usually pretty decisive, but I'm really on the fence about the stay-or-go decision on this one. We in the Jacksonville area, house is three blocks from the beach. We're putting up shutters, have everything organized to load into the cars, and have a hotel reservation near Macon, GA. We also have tons of food and water if we stay, a generator and gas to run it for probably 10 days, etc.

That little gap between our coast and the center of the track is probably giving me more hope than I should have.

Just don't know what to do.

I have family in St. John's they are staying bc they are far enough away from the coast and river that there shouldn't be any issues except for wind. I think that they are thinking this will be like Matthew and stay offshore, which hopefully it does

[newtotex]

Palm Beach County is large. Impact to coastal area (east of 95) will be different from areas further west... Also depends on type of house, etc. Need more detail for folks to be able this type of question.

Something that is going to be interesting to watch if it moves up through Dade/Broward/PB Counties is what is going to happen with Lake Okeechobee. It can have it's own storm surge, which has been a problem in the past

The South Florida Water Mgmt District has been releasing water (lowering the lake level) since the Governor's state of emergency declaration due to this potential issue.

Good. Hopefully that will mitigate any issues

[sponger]

I'm usually pretty decisive, but I'm really on the fence about the stay-or-go decision on this one. We in the Jacksonville area, house is three blocks from the beach. We're putting up shutters, have everything organized to load into the cars, and have a hotel reservation near Macon, GA. We also have tons of food and water if we stay, a generator and gas to run it for probably 10 days, etc.

That little gap between our coast and the center of the track is probably giving me more hope than I should have.

Just don't know what to do.

I have family in St. John's they are staying bc they are far enough away from the coast and river that there shouldn't be any issues except for wind. I think that they are thinking this will be like Matthew and stay offshore, which hopefully it does

Time to go. Matthew was a few feet from inundating Jax Beach. This one may well over top the beach.

[SkeetoBite]

I'm usually pretty decisive, but I'm really on the fence about the stay-or-go decision on this one. We in the Jacksonville area, house is three blocks from the beach. We're putting up shutters, have everything organized to load into the cars, and have a hotel reservation near Macon, GA. We also have tons of food and water if we stay, a generator and gas to run it for probably 10 days, etc.

That little gap between our coast and the center of the track is probably giving me more hope than I should have.

Just don't know what to do.

Does this help? Monday - 8am



Edit: I feel a little dirty for hot-linking this image. FYI - This image will update with the forecast data.

[KBBOCA]

Just heard my cousins in Palm Beach County aren't evacuating. So frustrating. Any idea what they can expect?

Palm Beach County is large. Impact to coastal area (east of 95) will quite probably be different from areas further west... Also depends on type of house, etc. Need more detail for folks to be able to answer this type of question. But in any case, the best answers are from local emergency managers, the NHC, and local NWS statements.

Large homes, fairly new construction. They have deep pockets. Not sure how far inland they are though

The graphic posted by Skeetobyte above shows wind impacts
viewtopic.php?p=2633041#p2633041

But if they are on the coast, there is storm surge. If they are near Lake O, that also could be an issue if there were to be a levee breech... Some areas of PBC are quite prone to flooding, so need to look at projected rainfall totals too. There are a lot of variables to consider.