ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[nutkin517]

Come on Michelle. Lets be serious. If it hits 100B, it will be one of only two storms in history though we are still counting Harvey. If it hits 175B, it will be the only one. So multiply that times six.

People believe anything nowadays.

I've seen several estimates coming in for Harvey around the $200 Billion mark. They are predicting that it will easily surpass the Katrina figure.

And that is with lots of areas still underwater and not able to be assessed yet.

[tolakram]

I am seeing alot of tweets out of miami about people not being able to leave because there is still no gas. Seems like panic is setting in.

That is very bad.

And not confirmed. Let's make sure to get confirmation before posting please. DRUDGE is not confirmation.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080006
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 21 20170907
235630 2202N 07245W 6965 03094 9994 +087 +011 058081 081 051 002 00
235700 2204N 07246W 6965 03097 9997 +087 +012 058079 080 047 003 00
235730 2205N 07248W 6966 03100 0002 +090 +010 058077 078 048 002 00
235800 2206N 07249W 6968 03101 0006 +090 +010 058075 076 046 003 00
235830 2208N 07251W 6966 03107 0009 +088 +015 057072 073 046 003 03
235900 2209N 07252W 6971 03100 0003 +095 +006 062074 076 050 002 00
235930 2210N 07253W 6960 03121 0013 +091 +002 063071 076 050 004 00
000000 2212N 07255W 6964 03111 0003 +099 -003 064072 074 050 003 00
000030 2213N 07256W 6971 03111 0010 +097 -000 063070 071 050 003 00
000100 2214N 07258W 6960 03125 0011 +098 -004 062069 070 046 002 00
000130 2216N 07259W 6966 03119 0022 +092 -000 063069 070 046 002 00
000200 2217N 07301W 6971 03116 0045 +073 +019 060066 069 044 004 00
000230 2218N 07302W 6968 03119 0060 +063 +021 056061 064 041 003 03
000300 2219N 07304W 6963 03133 0036 +088 +019 055062 063 /// /// 03
000330 2218N 07306W 6970 03125 0036 +089 +015 056063 063 039 001 00
000400 2217N 07309W 6964 03134 0034 +093 +005 052065 066 041 000 00
000430 2216N 07311W 6969 03132 0037 +090 +004 050063 065 039 001 03
000500 2214N 07311W 6967 03132 0035 +093 +000 048061 062 041 001 00
000530 2211N 07311W 6966 03132 0035 +091 +010 049062 063 042 001 00
000600 2209N 07311W 6969 03116 0027 +092 +010 050064 065 043 001 00
$$
;

[GCANE]

[tolakram]

I am seeing alot of tweets out of miami about people not being able to leave because there is still no gas. Seems like panic is setting in.

That is very bad.

And not confirmed. Let's make sure to get confirmation before posting please. DRUDGE is not confirmation.

Doesn't seem to me much out of the ordinary. Don't confuse mass evacuation with panic.

http://www.wftv.com/weather/eye-on-the-tropics/fhp-disabled-abandoned-vehicles-clogging-florida-turnpike-will-be-towed/604362560

[johngaltfla]

I am seeing alot of tweets out of miami about people not being able to leave because there is still no gas. Seems like panic is setting in.

That is very bad.

And not confirmed. Let's make sure to get confirmation before posting please. DRUDGE is not confirmation.

Thank you. I had to go to 5 stations, but found gas to top off my other vehicle tonight. There was a line but it was tolerable. I don't want to see the stories on TV (which we will) where the little old lady cries about being able to find gas even though she only went to the one station 5 minutes from her home. Folks, if you're not prepped by now, you're really going to have to work at it, and that includes evacuations.

[GCANE]

[Snowman67]

Come on Michelle. Lets be serious. If it hits 100B, it will be one of only two storms in history though we are still counting Harvey. If it hits 175B, it will be the only one. So multiply that times six.

People believe anything nowadays.

I've seen several estimates coming in for Harvey around the $200 Billion mark. They are predicting that it will easily surpass the Katrina figure.

We have a thread in Talkin' Tropics. Last update I saw was $80B with more to come. 200 could happen but would be beyond the end of a legit range. Point is Maue was being a kind of a chump by posting that and drawing attention to a tweet and stoking paranoia among an excitable fanbase. I'll leave it at that.

My point to her and now to you is you really think even if Harvey becomes our most costly storm in history at 200B, do you really think we can exceed that with a like event by a factor of 5? It's not in any way realistic, and I'm glad that other met called him out on his Bull.

I am acutely aware that $1 Trillion is in la la land. Living in the Houston area, I don't think 200B is out of the question for Harvey when it's all said and done.

[PandaCitrus]

It doesn't sound like Irma is weakening. It sounds like she is transitioning from a small compact extreme wind field to a broader wind field. Instead of 180mph winds in a 10 mile band around the eye that drops off to Cat 1. You are getting Cat 3, 4, and 5 winds disperse 40 and 50 miles around the eye.

[norva]

If these intensifies before landfall and hits as a 5, just how strong could it be by the time it reaches Central Florida/Orlando I wonder? Would a cat 3 be possible? Probably not I hope lol

[Kingarabian]

If these intensifies before landfall and hits as a 5, just how strong could it be by the time it reaches Central Florida/Orlando I wonder? Would a cat 3 be possible? Probably not I hope lol

Ryan Maue tweeted that most of Florida will see at least 75kt winds/gusts. So as they say, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

[Michele B]

turnpike is overwhelmed. would advise to use back roads

I love the back roads for evacuations. Used them to get far from Jacksonville/Matthew last year (and back). They're generally empty, more peaceful, and you get to see new sights.

There are (going by drudge) thousands of cars abandoned because they ran out of gas on the pike

Not confirmed

Not sure it's "thousands," but I believe it,because they were reporting it earlier today.

Telling people to STAY OFF THE HIGHWAYS and use back roads where they may be more access to gasoline.

[jlauderdal]

I am seeing alot of tweets out of miami about people not being able to leave because there is still no gas. Seems like panic is setting in.

People should shelter in place or go to a shelter
...all this driving around florida and Georgia is ridiculous..fyi, neatly everyone preps and stays as advised by authorities

[cjrciadt]

It doesn't sound like Irma is weakening. It sounds like she is transitioning from a small compact extreme wind field to a broader wind field. Instead of 180mph winds in a 10 mile band around the eye that drops off to Cat 1. You are getting Cat 3, 4, and 5 winds disperse 40 and 50 miles around the eye.

I agree, which could mean Cat 3 gusts or even sustained for me!

[txwatcher91]

Once the inner eye collapses and the new one takes over, if it remains as large as it seems on microwave, sub 900 pressures would be attainable and the GFS pressures in the 880 to 890 range might not seem so crazy after all.

[1900hurricane]

Whoops this post was supposed to go in the models thread. Sorry. Instead, here's a recent 37-GHz WindSat pass:

The 139 SFMR reading was in the last little bit of pink in the NW inner eywall. It'll be interesting to see the wind field evolve as this flight and eyewall replacement progresses. I have a suspicion that the first pass will have the strongest winds for the entire flight.

[Extratropical94]

NW eyewall:


Center drop:


SE eyewall:

[Michele B]

Come on Michelle. Lets be serious. If it hits 100B, it will be one of only two storms in history though we are still counting Harvey. If it hits 175B, it will be the only one. So multiply that times six.

People believe anything nowadays.

I've seen several estimates coming in for Harvey around the $200 Billion mark. They are predicting that it will easily surpass the Katrina figure.

We have a thread in Talkin' Tropics. Last update I saw was $80B with more to come. 200 could happen but would be beyond the end of a legit range. Point is Maue was being a kind of a chump by posting that and drawing attention to a tweet and stoking paranoia among an excitable fanbase. I'll leave it at that.

My point to her and now to you is you really think even if Harvey becomes our most costly storm in history at 200B, do you really think we can exceed that with a like event by a factor of 5? It's not in any way realistic, and I'm glad that other met called him out on his Bull.

A Cat 5 storm? Tearing apart HOW many buildings? Tearing apart how much infrastructure? Displacing how many Floridians?

This isn't like TX, where it was a portion of the state. This thing wants to go up the ENTIRE LENGTH of the state, AND wipe out the keys...a huge tourist attraction....AND Orlando is thrown into the mix, with all its tourist attractions.

IDK. I think I'll stand by my estimate that 1T isn't outrageous.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080016
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 22 20170908
000630 2207N 07311W 6967 03124 0026 +095 -003 049063 064 044 001 03
000700 2205N 07310W 6962 03128 0022 +095 -007 048063 064 043 001 00
000730 2203N 07310W 6966 03121 0014 +099 -009 047064 065 044 002 00
000800 2201N 07310W 6968 03113 0018 +090 +023 044064 065 045 003 00
000830 2159N 07310W 6973 03111 0016 +092 +010 047064 066 045 003 00
000900 2157N 07310W 6965 03116 0005 +098 +007 047066 069 046 001 00
000930 2155N 07310W 6969 03108 0026 +077 +021 044067 069 047 004 00
001000 2153N 07310W 6966 03108 0011 +088 +011 044066 068 046 002 00
001030 2151N 07310W 6961 03112 0000 +096 -005 043068 069 046 001 00
001100 2148N 07309W 6964 03107 0002 +093 -014 043069 070 045 001 00
001130 2146N 07309W 6966 03102 0000 +091 -020 043070 071 048 001 00
001200 2144N 07309W 6969 03096 0015 +077 +001 036071 075 048 003 00
001230 2142N 07309W 6959 03103 0014 +074 +019 032072 073 050 008 00
001300 2140N 07309W 6975 03088 9990 +096 +006 039072 075 050 003 00
001330 2137N 07309W 6961 03101 0004 +082 +015 037069 070 052 006 00
001400 2135N 07309W 6965 03084 9998 +080 +026 033076 082 052 006 00
001430 2133N 07308W 6974 03083 0005 +080 +019 029075 080 049 011 00
001500 2131N 07308W 6965 03092 9987 +090 +009 028074 076 049 003 00
001530 2128N 07308W 6966 03090 9991 +088 +006 029073 074 048 003 00
001600 2126N 07308W 6965 03089 9991 +086 +011 026073 075 049 003 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

Once the inner eye collapses and the new one takes over, if it remains as large as it seems on microwave, sub 900 pressures would be attainable and the GFS pressures in the 880 to 890 range might not seem so crazy after all.

It's certainly possible that Irma may hit just below 900mb. But those extreme 880's that the GFS has been showing are hard to bet on since Irma will likely make landfall west of where the GFS showed those 880mb pressures (land vs very warm waters).