ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7741 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:16 am

mph101 wrote:
forecasterjack wrote:Irma's inner core is still struggling with a hint of dry air. Likely downsloped off the mountains in SE Cuba. Hoping that continues but I think that's unlikely as the storm moves farther away. https://weather.us/satellite/745-w-213-n/satellite-water-vapor-superhd-5min.html#play


Or perhaps some one is seeding the storm? Trying to disrupt and weaken it?


It's not dry air intrusion; what we're seeing is the EWRC wrap up. A new, larger eye is going to replace the current, ragged one.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7742 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:19 am

nascarfan999 wrote:
dandeliongum wrote:I would really appreciate some opinions. I posted yesterday saying that I have bad agoraphobia/panic attacks and my attempt to evacuate yesterday was not successful. However, it's a new day and I'm feeling like it's now or never. I'm not under voluntary/mandatory evac, but I simply don't want to go through this horrible experience.

If I leave around 7pm tonight and take the Turnpike up to the Disney area (booked a week long stay at a Disney resort), would this be a wise idea? Or is traffic on the turnpike so gridlocked that I'm better off staying put? I'm in west-ish Pembroke Pines if that helps at all. Aside from my own panic attacks, I have a wheelchair bound grandfather & 6 pets that I would be in charge of, so it would not be easy, but neither would riding it out. I know this decision is my own but I would love some input.

Thoughts?


Not sure exactly where you are, but I assume somewhere in the Miami metro. The Turnpike has been consistently heavy for nearly 36 hours now in places and I would recommend using other routes such as I-95 to 520/528 or even finding back roads to make the trip. If you do decide to go, make sure you have a full tank of gas when you leave so you don't run out on the way.


With a wheelchair bound grandfather, you should contact the local fire dept to see if they can offer you any assistance as to what local shelter you and the pets can go to. They can assist with getting you there as well. As there is very little time left to embark on a road trip, with gas in short supply in many localized areas, especially near hwy's, you could find yourselves all trapped in a car with nowhere to stay overnight and a storm bearing down on you.
Just my opinion, but if I were you, I would try and reach my doctor/therapist to ensure you have your anti-anxiety meds on hand to help you deal with all the stress the next few days will bring. Then take a deep breath, and contact the local fire dept for assistance/guidance. There are special contingency plans to assist those that need help, but you need to contact them to ask for the help. Good luck, and stay safe.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7743 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:20 am

She's 150 now? Wow, she weakened 15mph in like 8 hrs.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7744 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:22 am

GCANE wrote:Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 13:49Z

Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)

Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 13:20:45Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°47'N 74°55'W (21.7833N 74.9167W)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 104kts (~ 119.7mph)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 928mb (27.41 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,468m (8,097ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,454m (8,051ft)

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles)

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 150kts (~ 172.6mph) which was observed 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the NE (35°) from the flight level center at 13:27:02Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 0° at 0kts (From the N at 0mph)

172mph? She is regaining strength now or am I reading that wrong?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7745 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:23 am

Larger eye starting to open up.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7746 Postby p1nheadlarry » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:23 am

GCANE wrote:
p1nheadlarry wrote:
GCANE wrote:Theta_E Ridge is still there, over the Keys and Strait

Image


Means Irma still will have large westward component?


That parameter doesn't steer it. It effects intensification.


How so, does it help with outflow, impart shear on the storm, etc?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7747 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:24 am

meriland29 wrote:
GCANE wrote:Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 13:49Z

Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)

Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 13:20:45Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°47'N 74°55'W (21.7833N 74.9167W)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 104kts (~ 119.7mph)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 928mb (27.41 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,468m (8,097ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,454m (8,051ft)

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles)

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 150kts (~ 172.6mph) which was observed 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the NE (35°) from the flight level center at 13:27:02Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 0° at 0kts (From the N at 0mph)

172mph? She is regaining strength now or am I reading that wrong?


Irma's gone up with flight level winds, but not on the surface yet.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7748 Postby dukeblue219 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:25 am

meriland29 wrote:
GCANE wrote:Maximum Flight Level Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 150kts (~ 172.6mph) which was observed 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the NE (35°) from the flight level center at 13:27:02Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 0° at 0kts (From the N at 0mph)

172mph? She is regaining strength now or am I reading that wrong?


That's flight level winds, so normally you'd knock off about 10% to get surface. However, with the eye changing a bit the surface winds seem to be a little lower than that based on SFMR and dropsonde measurements. That said, 172mph flight level winds suggest the storm is still very potent and not falling apart by any means.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7749 Postby dukeblue219 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:26 am

p1nheadlarry wrote:
GCANE wrote:
p1nheadlarry wrote:
Means Irma still will have large westward component?


That parameter doesn't steer it. It effects intensification.


How so, does it help with outflow, impart shear on the storm, etc?


It's not a wind map at all, but Theta-E relates to the instability of the atmosphere and potential for convective development (is that accurate as a quick explanation?)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7750 Postby otowntiger » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:27 am

eastcoastFL wrote:Latest map from navy based on nhc track has Irma 28NM From Orlando with winds at 90knots and gust to 110knots

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 92W.INVEST,
isn't this just a mirror of the NHC? It's exactly the same- I don't think they do their own forecasts.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7751 Postby Alyono » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:27 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
meriland29 wrote:
GCANE wrote:Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 13:49Z

Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)

Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 13:20:45Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°47'N 74°55'W (21.7833N 74.9167W)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 104kts (~ 119.7mph)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 928mb (27.41 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,468m (8,097ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,454m (8,051ft)

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles)

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 150kts (~ 172.6mph) which was observed 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the NE (35°) from the flight level center at 13:27:02Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 0° at 0kts (From the N at 0mph)

172mph? She is regaining strength now or am I reading that wrong?


Irma's gone up with flight level winds, but not on the surface yet.


air force found 145 kts at surface
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7752 Postby UpTheCreek » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:27 am

Extra class here, terrible today on HF!

rolldamntoad wrote:
dukeblue219 wrote:For those wondering since this did come up yesterday, last night we experienced a G4-class geomagnetic storm, which is "severe," and a bit stronger than forecast. That level is strong enough to interfere with HF radio (often used for aircraft that are over the open ocean) and GPS reception. I have not heard of any specific issues from this storm, but it's something to keep in mind.

The satellites aren't going anywhere, your brain won't melt, and the recon aircraft aren't going to fall out of the sky, but spotty radio reception is not entirely unexpected.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation (yesterday morning we had an R3 radio blackout as well)


Also going to mess with HF amateur (ham) radio communications, which are often used during emergencies. Saw some reports yesterday that the bands were pretty much dead. (I'm licensed, but only a Tech, and don't know much about HF.)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7753 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:27 am

Do you think it it likely she will have time to recover from ewrc or will she likely just kinda suffer from it till landfall?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7754 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:27 am

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7755 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:27 am

tolakram wrote:Larger eye starting to open up.

Image

Image


The shape of the new massive eye is definitely visible in that image.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7756 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:28 am

Irma really bumping up/down off the ridge, kinda cool...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7757 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:29 am

Alyono wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
meriland29 wrote:172mph? She is regaining strength now or am I reading that wrong?


Irma's gone up with flight level winds, but not on the surface yet.


air force found 145 kts at surface



So 166 mph, was that found last recon before?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7758 Postby Alyono » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:30 am

meriland29 wrote:
Alyono wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Irma's gone up with flight level winds, but not on the surface yet.


air force found 145 kts at surface



So 166 mph, was that found last recon before?


highest I've seen in about a day
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7759 Postby dukeblue219 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:30 am

Alyono wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
meriland29 wrote:172mph? She is regaining strength now or am I reading that wrong?


Irma's gone up with flight level winds, but not on the surface yet.


air force found 145 kts at surface


For what it's worth, I only see 144kts as a flagged reading. However, the latest pass through the NE quad looks like the storm is starting to get its winds back up to strength, so it may not be far off. I'm curious if they dropped a sonde in the eyewall this time through.
Last edited by dukeblue219 on Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7760 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:30 am

Image
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