ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[theavocado]

Latest map from navy based on nhc track has Irma 28NM From Orlando with winds at 90knots and gust to 110knots

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 92W.INVEST,

isn't this just a mirror of the NHC? It's exactly the same- I don't think they do their own forecasts.

That is correct. Their mission is to provide the forecast information through military communications system.

[Janie2006]

As expected, traffic counts along the I-10 and I-65 corridors in coastal Alabama have markedly increased, but no worries. We stand ready to help. Evacuees who have reached the Mobile area can dial "211" to connect with local organizations that can provide assistance. In addition, The Grounds, home of the Greater Gulf State Fair, has opened 160 sites for camping out.

http://www.thegroundsmobile.com/

Some key resources available to evacuees:

Life Lines: Displaced families in need of resources can call 211.

City of Mobile: In coordination with the American Red Cross, the City is preparing to open community centers as potential shelters.

Catholic Social Services: Catholic Social Services of Mobile is offering food, clothing, and some limited financial assistance for qualified individuals. Call 251-434-1550 to schedule an appointment for assessment.

Mobile County Public School System: Displaced students can enroll in any school that is located in the district in which their housing is located. MCPSS has received funding to assist with uniforms and school supplies. Call 251-459-4463 for assistance.

The Mobile County Health Department: Health care services are available throughout Mobile County via Mobile County Health Department's federally qualified health center, Family Health. There are locations in Semmes, DIP, Southwest Mobile (Tillman's Corner), Eight Mile, Citronelle, North Mobile Health Center (Mt. Vernon) and Downtown Mobile. Services offered include: primary care, chronic disease management, acute care, dental services and optometry services. Services are available for insured and uninsured, and fees are adjusted based on the individuals' household income. For an appointment at any these sites, please call 251-690-8889. More information is also available at www.familyhealthalabama.org.

[Frank P]

Two slivers of hope for FL that could reduce the intensity of Irma as it goes inland... 1. The inner core (eye wall) could be disrupted if it were to track over N. Cuba as a couple of reliable models are currently indicating and 2. As she traverses the FL Straits she is going through another ERC (eyewall replacement cycle) and she is in the weakening phase as she comes inland.. both are possible.. Now on the negative side, 1. Temps in the FL Straits are boiling hot at 89 degrees and she will have plenty of time over this hot water to ramp back up and 2. There is NO SHEAR in the coming forecast and 3. Dry air is not in the forecast and 4. Even if she weakening from the ERC her wind field and overall size could expand so more areas could receive wind damage but at a overall reduced intensity level and 5. There is not much difference between a high end Cat 4 (winds 155 mph) and a low end Cat 5 (156 mph) as most trees and structures will not notice any difference and 6. Her past track record for intensity for keeping at a high level.. all are probable ...Bottom line... FL is in deep .......

[Big Easy Breeze]

She appears to be headed for at least a brushed landfall with Cuba, which would help diminish the intensity. Anything at this point is helpful, though those people in Cuba, I feel for as well, obviously. No one should have to experience something like this.

[flamingosun]

A number of cruise ships returned to their home port earlier than scheduled, disembarked their passengers, and are now taking their crews and vessels to safer waters.

The safest place for a ship during a hurricane is at sea. Those ships will just cruise in circles till the storm is over. There were several ships within 270-300 miles of Irma when she battered the St Thomas area.
area.
The bigger question is: where will they return to if the Florida ports are heavily damaged.

Gulf swells animation map
http://magicseaweed.com/Gulf-of-Mexico- ... type=swell

I absolutely agree that at sea is safest. Have done that more than once. This time, we didn't luck out and are stuck on land.

The coast guard will not allow marine traffic in until the ports are declared safe. I believe the Corps of Engineers are involved in the inspections.
Ships will go to alternate ports until they can dock again at their home ports. Just have to hope that most of the FL ports remain undamaged. Otherwise, they'll have to use various out of state ones. Could do some serious damage to a critical part of state's tourist industry.

Hurricane Jeanne shoaled up channel entrance for Port Canaveral. We were at sea at the time, and had to disembark at Ft. Lauderdale (Port Everglades) after they got the all clear. Ships home ported at Canaveral had to temporarily sail into and out of alternate ports for weeks (don't remember how many offhand) until Canaveral re dredging was done.

[Blown Away]

Irma taking a big SW wobble...

[meriland29]

Her eye definitely looks more desheveled now as I see the run

[flamingosun]

I must be seriously hurricane frazzled. Keep having to edit my posts for spelling, grammar, and clarity!

[Aric Dunn]

that is goinf to be a very big eye if it ever recovers ..lets hope it does not...

[dgparent]

Off topic but I think it should be a law that if you are in a Mandatory Evacuation area and are responsible for either children or the elderly and do not evacuate and as a result they get hurt or die you should be held responsible. CNN just had a guy on in Miami Beach has 2 kids and they are riding it out, yesterday it was a young girl with 2 kids in Homestead, 1 a 11 month old, and she was riding it out. These kids/elderly have no idea what is about to hit

[ava_ati]

https://i.imgur.com/ggitS8W.gif
Irma taking a big SW wobble...

Looks more like an oblong eye than a wobble, IMO

[meriland29]

Seems both gfs and euro wanna strengthen this more whereas nhc wants to weaken her. Really depends on that massive ewrc. I was thinking she finished last night.

[tarheelprogrammer]

She looks to be weakening, but still a powerful storm.

[NDG]

Amazing how Irma's outflow is not affecting Jose at all contrary to what models were earlier showing, is like the usual Pacific's atmospheric conditions are over the Atlantic

[meriland29]

She looks to be weakening, but still a powerful storm.

I've been hearing the opposite

[Aric Dunn]

outer eye looking really good on radar.. once the remnants of the inner eye are gone then deepening is very likely.. but lets just hope it never recovers..

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

[Frank P]

side note: As Katrina was approaching the coast as a Cat 5, the emotions I was going thought were indescribable, glued to radar and sat loops watching every bobble as my life depended on it (and it did) , calculating just how far the eye wall would be from my house...... keep thinking it has to move more west... but nope... it was then I realized I have to get off the beach.. I choose wisely as I probably would not have survived... so yes I know how gut wrenching you Floridians feel.... just keep your safety as your highest priority... if your house is not a substantially well built structure and you did not evacuate, seriously consider going to a shelter...sometimes there is a comfort of safety in numbers... additionally, I had to stop watching Storm2K within 24 hours of landfall because reading the many well intended posts about how catastrophic the storm was going to be for me was just too unnerving... so yeah, I feel your pain and will continue to hope for the best for all the state of FL... Godspeed my friends...

[NDG]

Seems both gfs and euro wanna strengthen this more whereas nhc wants to weaken her. Really depends on that massive ewrc. I was thinking she finished last night.

That's what people are overlooking, they both a did a very good job on forecasting Harvey to strengthen before landfall, this could be very well the same case and it regaining Cat 5 is not out of the question if not at least a strong Cat 4.

[Jevo]

40 mile wide eye.... the width of the state from Naples to Miami is approx 100 miles..... A landfall at everglades city as the Euro states puts Miami-Dade County and points north in the East Eyewall or its periphery... These news stations need to put away these silly spaghetti lines unless they start making the lines 40 miles wide.

[pcolaman]

that is goinf to be a very big eye if it ever recovers ..lets hope it does not...

I say close to 50 miles