ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

minobs are lagging but dropsonde . pressure 925 mb

[Extratropical94]

234530 2229N 07718W 6946 02703 9528 +104 +104 079149 154 142 054 00

That should leave little doubt.

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/906308886109487105




Stu Ostro‏Verified account @StuOstro 4m4 minutes ago

Ring of #lightning with outer convection in #HurricaneIrma

[ScottNAtlanta]

Brand new vortex message from AF:
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 145kts (~ 166.9mph)

Full message:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 0:10Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 24
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 23:52:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°08'N 77°12'W (22.1333N 77.2W)
B. Center Fix Location: 68 statute miles (110 km) to the NE (41°) from Camagüey, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,440m (8,005ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 145kts (~ 166.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NNW (343°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 79° at 154kts (From between the ENE and E at ~ 177.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NNW (343°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 925mb (27.32 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 154kts (~ 177.2mph) which was observed 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NNW (343°) from the flight level center at 23:45:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 190° at 9kts (From the S at 10mph)

Thats a Cat5 for sure

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT12 KNHC 090010
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 08/23:52:10Z
B. 22 deg 08 min N
077 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2440 m
D. 145 kt
E. 343 deg 19 nm
F. 079 deg 154 kt
G. 343 deg 21 nm
H. 925 mb
I. 10 C / 3037 m
J. 19 C / 3051 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C35
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2411A IRMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 154 KT 343 / 21 NM 23:45:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 190 / 9 KT
;

[Aric Dunn]

they will probably go with 165 mph now.. sheesh .. and it will likely get even stronger.. geezz//

[JBCycloneStan]

Indeed, wouldn't even be doubtful of a Southwest movement into Cuba at this moment. Panhandle landfall is increasing rapidly.

Not seeing it. In fact, saw a WNW-NW jog in the last few frames.

Looks to be heading exactly towards the next NHC forecast point (09 / 0600z). Wish I knew how to post link, just go to the NHC satellite imagery site and click on fcst points.

At this point they've probably got it pretty well nailed down.

Its pretty insane how well the NHC has been able to forecast the track within 24-48 hours. Really shows how far the science has come.

[ScottNAtlanta]

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/906308886109487105




Stu Ostro‏Verified account @StuOstro 4m4 minutes ago

Ring of #lightning with outer convection in #HurricaneIrma

Notice no lightning in the core...that indicates core is getting stronger

[meriland29]

Had to check it myself, definitely strengthening. DVORAK is showing a well defined white center and RBTOP shows a very deep, thick maroon coloration forming in the center vs that light red we have had all day

[ScottNAtlanta]

they will probably go with 165 mph now.. sheesh .. and it will likely get even stronger.. geezz//

JB's sub 900mb forecast isnt looking so outrages now

[tolakram]

Gah!

000
URNT12 KNHC 090010
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 08/23:52:10Z
B. 22 deg 08 min N
077 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2440 m
D. 145 kt
E. 343 deg 19 nm
F. 079 deg 154 kt
G. 343 deg 21 nm
H. 925 mb
I. 10 C / 3037 m
J. 19 C / 3051 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C35
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2411A IRMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 154 KT 343 / 21 NM 23:45:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 190 / 9 KT
;

[BYG Jacob]

How many ACE points has Irma accumulated thus far?

54 so far, and that number will go up quite a bit

[tolakram]

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/906243916428701696




Stu Ostro‏Verified account @StuOstro 4h4 hours ago

Don't be misled by #Irma "only" being Cat 4 vs. 5 -- not only still extremely powerful, but size and IKE (total energy) increased per @hwind

[NDG]

How many ACE points has Irma accumulated thus far?

As of 2 pm today, 54

[EquusStorm]

I wonder if the pressure will respond. Has been running a bit higher than expected for the wind for quite a bit of its lifespan but I assume is due to higher environmental pressure? Also, wow at how fast the structure has improved since the eyewall finally finished the last cycle.

[tolakram]

[Nederlander]

Just checking in.. May have been brought up already, but she is definitely looking more annular this evening to me.

[Aric Dunn]

radar looks like its almost moving slightly south of west.. though it could be illusion due to the shape of the coast line..

[meriland29]

Wait, did recon find 166mph winds last pass? I just read that I thought. If so, that is quite a impressively significant jump in such a short time. Was it flagged?