ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KBBOCA]

Latest NWS Tampa forecast discussion

 https://twitter.com/NWSTampaBay/status/906315963192225792




NWS Tampa Bay‏Verified account @NWSTampaBay 4m4 minutes ago

TBW issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=2017

[kranki]

I find it interesting that Channel 13 (Fox) in Tampa says that the storm surge will be 2'-4' in Tampa. Yet, they don't talk about the strength of the storm. 2'-4' is not much more than a Tropical Storm. I live 40 miles north of Tampa. From looking at the projections, it seems that my house will be in Cat 1 to Cat 2 conditions unless the storm stays out over the Gulf. Am I way off base if the current projections hold?

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090041
AF308 2411A IRMA HDOB 26 20170908
230430 2352N 07850W 6445 03791 0019 +073 +011 061056 057 027 000 00
230500 2351N 07848W 6582 03616 0016 +085 +015 062057 059 022 000 00
230530 2350N 07846W 6716 03442 0024 +086 +024 064061 062 022 001 00
230600 2349N 07844W 6868 03258 0030 +090 +033 062062 063 022 001 00
230630 2348N 07842W 6963 03144 0032 +097 +038 060062 063 024 001 00
230700 2347N 07841W 6979 03124 0033 +097 +039 059064 066 023 003 00
230730 2346N 07840W 6960 03144 0047 +083 +041 057056 064 026 006 06
230800 2344N 07839W 6952 03155 0037 +090 +047 055058 059 027 005 00
230830 2343N 07838W 6972 03130 0029 +094 +051 051059 061 025 002 00
230900 2341N 07837W 6967 03130 0028 +094 +049 050064 065 022 001 00
230930 2339N 07836W 6963 03135 0028 +090 +048 048066 066 022 002 00
231000 2338N 07835W 6973 03119 0029 +090 +047 049066 067 025 004 00
231030 2336N 07834W 6963 03132 0028 +089 +047 046066 068 033 011 00
231100 2335N 07833W 6986 03096 0054 +063 +046 041049 062 031 050 00
231130 2334N 07831W 6973 03109 0050 +064 +050 053043 046 049 036 03
231200 2333N 07830W 6957 03134 0056 +067 +061 052050 056 052 027 03
231230 2331N 07829W 6962 03129 0048 +076 +075 060059 060 047 024 03
231300 2330N 07828W 6968 03116 //// +076 //// 059059 060 036 007 01
231330 2330N 07826W 6970 03110 //// +079 //// 062063 065 034 003 01
231400 2330N 07825W 6963 03120 //// +081 //// 062064 065 034 001 01
$$
;

[jdjaguar]

I've seen some discussion of people suggesting to drain a foot or so of water out of their pool to help prevent flooding from rains.

Have no idea where they got that from though.

Not sure if this is sarcasm or not, but I am actually contemplating doing that (seemed obvious). This will be my first major storm whilst having an in-ground pool some 15 feet from my back doors, so I assumed it would make sense to backwash some water now to avoid overflow (even though I'm aware the paver-deck has a positive slope and drainage). Am I somehow mistaken?

Personally, I put the pool
Furniture in the garage

But will drain a foot of water out tomorrow.


It's a Floridian thing.

Drain your pool by half, throw your pool furniture to the bottom (with weights if need be) and let it ride out. If we get 6+ feet of rain, would a half full or full pool really matter?

Uh, no.

I've done this for years, it works fine. Cheaper to refill the pool than have a wife whining about wet carpeting in the living room.

[northjaxpro]

Look at Irma. WOW! She is intensifying rapidly. What a historic storm!! I have run out of superlatives for this monster!

Now Jax, are about to start getting literary on us, too? lol

Hey stormrrader. Lol... Yeah for this incredible monster cyclone we have to face down here in a couple of days, I am trying find the right words to say about this frightening hurricane. Incredible!! I am starting to wonder are we looking at a potential of seeing Irma get near Patricia's hemispheric pressure record? I think Irma is going to make a serious run at her record.

[Blown Away]

Always follow NHC, but a slight W shift and Irma's eye technically could miss the Keys to the W and possibly the peninsula. JMHO

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I find it interesting that Channel 13 (Fox) in Tampa says that the storm surge will be 2'-4' in Tampa. Yet, they don't talk about the strength of the storm. 2'-4' is not much more than a Tropical Storm. I live 40 miles north of Tampa. From looking at the projections, it seems that my house will be in Cat 1 to Cat 2 conditions unless the storm stays out over the Gulf. Am I way off base if the current projections hold?

nah your on the money with you house. it would have to meander more west for storm surge to be a major-catastrophic issue. The surge in this scenario is wind coming out of the Northeast and back around. The Eyewall should be somewhere over lakeland if this forecast holds up. The doomsday scenario for the bay area is if a storm is coming at it up the coast offshore and the eyewall is off of Palmetto or Clearwater. Remember the wind is counter clockwise

[SkeetoBite]

I've seen some discussion of people suggesting to drain a foot or so of water out of their pool to help prevent flooding from rains.

Have no idea where they got that from though.

Not sure if this is sarcasm or not, but I am actually contemplating doing that (seemed obvious). This will be my first major storm whilst having an in-ground pool some 15 feet from my back doors, so I assumed it would make sense to backwash some water now to avoid overflow (even though I'm aware the paver-deck has a positive slope and drainage). Am I somehow mistaken?

It's a Floridian thing.

Drain your pool by half, throw your pool furniture to the bottom (with weights if need be) and let it ride out. If we get 6+ feet of rain, would a half full or full pool really matter?

Uh, no.

I've done this for years, it works fine. Cheaper to refill the pool than have a wife whining about wet carpeting in the living room.

Fascinating discussion, which we just covered in the Storm2k chat room.

Join us here for the non storm specific discussion: http://webchat.esper.net/?channels=storm2k

[johngaltfla]

I find it interesting that Channel 13 (Fox) in Tampa says that the storm surge will be 2'-4' in Tampa. Yet, they don't talk about the strength of the storm. 2'-4' is not much more than a Tropical Storm. I live 40 miles north of Tampa. From looking at the projections, it seems that my house will be in Cat 1 to Cat 2 conditions unless the storm stays out over the Gulf. Am I way off base if the current projections hold?

He's talking general Tampa Bay area. North of there (Tarpon Springs/Crystal River) usually get 4-6' during any kind of summer storm or winter one. I would be VERY cautious if I lived in Zone A or B north of the Tampa Bay area.

[Aric Dunn]

Always follow NHC, but a slight W shift and Irma's eye technically could miss the Keys to the W and possibly the peninsula. JMHO

or a slight nne to ne wobble and MIami is in the right front eyewall..

[gatorcane]

This storm continues to grow and is exceptionally large compared to Florida. Those saying the east coast has dodged a bullet may have a rude awakening in my opinion:

[galaxy401]

Always follow NHC, but a slight W shift and Irma's eye technically could miss the Keys to the W and possibly the peninsula. JMHO

I think it's pretty unlikely for Irma to miss Florida though...

[stormreader]

Look at Irma. WOW! She is intensifying rapidly. What a historic storm!! I have run out of superlatives for this monster!

Now Jax, are about to start getting literary on us, too? lol

Hey stormrrader. Lol... Yeah for this incredible monster cyclone we have to face down here in a couple of days, I am trying find the right words to say about this frightening hurricane. Incefoble!! I am starting to wonder are we looking at a potential of seeing Irma get near Patricia's hemispheric record? I think Irma is going to make a serious run at her record.

Said earlier that size making a run at large typhoons, not there, but in the ball park. Intensity, I think about those E Pac monsters that float harmlessly out to sea. Patricia and Linda. Not there yet. But if you put the size and strength together, along with the inertia of the sustained force of this storm, oh my.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

you should empty your pool. If its like mine water will rush into your utility room and living room if left alone and your yard isn't even flooding

[stormreader]

Just saw pics on national tv, been waiting for them, from the British Virgin Islands. British Virgins caught direct hit. Y'all, incredible. Maybe someone could post them.

[kranki]

Well, if it stays over water and hugs the shore line, then it might keep its intensity all the way up the coast and put the coast in the NE quadrant. Not good for most of us on or near the west coast for sure. Just have to wait and see. I might still drive to St Louis. lol

[tolakram]

NHC maxed their mid range error rate with Irma and Florida... NHC going to take some heat from public opinion, unfairly...

You're going to have to explain this one to me, with diagrams. This link might help: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 090045
NOAA9 2211A IRMA HDOB 41 20170909
003600 2539N 08310W 1470 14417 0683 -660 //// 217034 035 /// /// 05
003630 2542N 08312W 1470 14417 0684 -660 //// 221036 036 /// /// 05
003700 2545N 08315W 1470 14412 0684 -662 //// 219036 036 /// /// 05
003730 2548N 08317W 1470 14418 0685 -664 //// 221036 037 /// /// 05
003800 2551N 08320W 1469 14424 0687 -659 //// 232038 039 /// /// 05
003830 2553N 08323W 1470 14415 0683 -661 //// 230038 039 /// /// 05
003900 2556N 08325W 1471 14411 0680 -662 //// 231039 040 /// /// 05
003930 2559N 08328W 1470 14410 0679 -667 //// 231039 039 /// /// 05
004000 2601N 08331W 1470 14409 0679 -665 //// 230039 040 /// /// 05
004030 2604N 08333W 1470 14410 0679 -665 //// 231039 040 /// /// 05
004100 2607N 08336W 1469 14412 0679 -666 //// 233039 040 /// /// 05
004130 2609N 08339W 1470 14410 0679 -663 //// 232040 041 /// /// 05
004200 2612N 08341W 1470 14408 0677 -664 //// 231040 041 /// /// 05
004230 2615N 08344W 1470 14409 0677 -665 //// 232041 041 /// /// 05
004300 2618N 08347W 1470 14408 0676 -665 //// 232041 041 /// /// 05
004330 2620N 08349W 1470 14409 0676 -666 //// 234041 041 /// /// 05
004400 2623N 08352W 1469 14406 0673 -667 //// 233042 042 /// /// 05
004430 2626N 08355W 1470 14404 0673 -669 //// 233042 043 /// /// 05
004500 2628N 08357W 1469 14406 0674 -669 //// 234042 042 /// /// 05
004530 2631N 08400W 1469 14407 0675 -670 //// 233042 042 /// /// 05

[NDG]

Damn...thats half of a normal season!!!

That's more than half of the current total for the West Pacific.

Add Jose and Katia and we might be giving the WPAC a race

Total Atlantic Ace is past each of those two basins.

[jdjaguar]

Just saw pics on national tv, been waiting for them, from the British Virgin Islands. British Virgins caught direct hit. Y'all, incredible. Maybe someone could post them.

I read a Tortola was hit hard.
Very hard