ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SoupBone]

I'm sure it's been posted already but that area is generally flat as well. If it had come ashore on the eastern edge, we'd have seen some serious disruption and decay.

[boca]

Are they optimistic about Irma missing us to the west?

[BYG Jacob]

Agreed Aric. This is getting rather interesting. Interaction with a landmass such as Cuba with mountains can create erratic wobbles and movements.

There aren't any mountains in the area where she made landfall.

anything other than ocean increases friction quite a bit. does not need to be high terrain .

It will however, lessen the impact of interacting with Cuba

[Aric Dunn]

very near landfall.....

[Blown Away]

it has slowed down a good bit the last 4 hours or so.. that was not antcipated..

What are the track implications of any slowdown at this stage?

well slow movement would mean more east generally.

Looking at the ensembles, the ones that go more S & W into Cuba end up in the EGOM?

[dukeblue219]

URNT12 KNHC 090200
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 09/01:36:10Z
B. 22 deg 07 min N
077 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2454 m
D. 139 kt
E. 048 deg 15 nm
F. 146 deg 127 kt
G. 047 deg 16 nm
H. 926 mb
I. 10 C / 3050 m
J. 18 C / 3049 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C28
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF308 2411A IRMA OB 11
MAX FL WIND 154 KT 032 / 24 NM 23:45:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 133 KT 298 / 18 NM 01:44:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 060 / 5 KT

More evidence that we indeed have a 140kt CAT5 storm. Pressure ticked up 1 mb.

[Aric Dunn]

also its it crawling due west ...... interesting..

[tailgater]

Are they optimistic about Irma missing us to the west?

It's looking a tad bit better Boca but you are by no way out of the woods. It could still make a harder right turn(north). IMHO

[cjrciadt]

Not been this perplexed since Cat 1 Katrina in SW FL. The UKmet said this track days ago though of W into Cuba..

[SunnyThoughts]

Recon may not get to do anymore eye passes for a little while will they?

[AdamFirst]

Recon may not get to do anymore eye passes for a little while will they?

Won't do runs over land. Dropsondes crash safely into the water, not so much on land

[SoupBone]

Aric or others, if this slowing continues, are we looking at a potential sharper turn N and NE? I'm not suggesting OTS for those that may be reading too much into my question.

[Aric Dunn]

I mean the motion could be due to conservation of angular momentum deepening hurricanes often due this as we all know.. could just be small loop, or the inflow could be caught on the higher terrain giving us the "tether ball" effect, or a last bit of ridging nosing its way in.... time will tell though.

[facemane]

also its it crawling due west ...... interesting..

slower speed usually indicates a change in direction,no?

[BYG Jacob]

also its it crawling due west ...... interesting..

slower speed usually indicates a change in direction,no?

Or a complete collapse in steering.

[Aric Dunn]

Speaking of dropsonds over water.. this one landed on land.. lol by the time hit probably rotated quite a few miles to the south..

[gatorcane]

Aric or others, if this slowing continues, are we looking at a potential sharper turn N and NE? I'm not suggesting OTS for those that may be reading too much into my question.

I think if it moves more slowly west than expected, it would favor eastern side of NHC track because the weakness would open up when the position of Irma was further east in longitude.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Recon may not get to do anymore eye passes for a little while will they?

Won't do runs over land. Dropsondes crash safely into the water, not so much on land

well i know its an emergency and stuff but I am pretty sure there is politics involved. Cuban Government has scrambled MiG's in the past so we don't go with 14 miles of the exclusion zone without permission. It looks like today they have permission.

[otowntiger]

it has slowed down a good bit the last 4 hours or so.. that was not antcipated..

What are the track implications of any slowdown at this stage?

Probably more west. It's beginning to look like Irma has it in for the west coast/Tampa. NOAA has steadily dropped our wind forecasts here in Orlando- now down to t. s.good news for us and east coast but definitely not good for west coast. I wonder if that is because of more weakening than expected or because of the further distance or both.

[stormhunter7]

I see the piece of energy coming to break up that blocking ridge.... now to study and compare it to models...