ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8781 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:17 pm

gatorcane wrote:
SoupBone wrote:Aric or others, if this slowing continues, are we looking at a potential sharper turn N and NE? I'm not suggesting OTS for those that may be reading too much into my question.


I think if it moves more slowly west than expected, it would favor eastern side of NHC track because the weakness would open up when the position of Irma was further east in longitude.


But the ensembles that go S & W of the mean end up in the EGOM?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8782 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:18 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8783 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:19 pm

Blown Away wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
SoupBone wrote:Aric or others, if this slowing continues, are we looking at a potential sharper turn N and NE? I'm not suggesting OTS for those that may be reading too much into my question.


I think if it moves more slowly west than expected, it would favor eastern side of NHC track because the weakness would open up when the position of Irma was further east in longitude.


But the ensembles that go S & W of the mean end up in the EGOM?

Doesn't matter. The slower it goes the more east it could end up.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8784 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:19 pm

Sort of off topic but I am sort of beside myself how much people are still in my neighborhood and houses are not boarded up. I only saw four houses including my own out of 60.

Maybe people had to work today and tommorrow is gametime? But time is running out. I personally told my employer to shove it today...my property and life matter.
Last edited by SEASON_CANCELED on Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8785 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:20 pm

Blown Away wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
SoupBone wrote:Aric or others, if this slowing continues, are we looking at a potential sharper turn N and NE? I'm not suggesting OTS for those that may be reading too much into my question.


I think if it moves more slowly west than expected, it would favor eastern side of NHC track because the weakness would open up when the position of Irma was further east in longitude.


But the ensembles that go S & W of the mean end up in the EGOM?


But those ensembles don't show the slowing we are seeing. The slowing may be temporary, we will see.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8786 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:21 pm

The eye has now shrunk all the way back to original size like it didnt just spend 24 hours doing a ERC>.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8787 Postby pokkeherrie » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:21 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
I think if it moves more slowly west than expected, it would favor eastern side of NHC track because the weakness would open up when the position of Irma was further east in longitude.


But the ensembles that go S & W of the mean end up in the EGOM?


But those ensembles don't show the slowing we are seeing.


I was so afraid of this scenario. I really think Irma isn't done surprising us.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8788 Postby WeatherOrKnot » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:21 pm

One person says slowing down means possibly east of track. Literally the next says west. Then back and forth. Can't be both ways. Using science, what is the possible outcome???
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8789 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:22 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
I think if it moves more slowly west than expected, it would favor eastern side of NHC track because the weakness would open up when the position of Irma was further east in longitude.


But the ensembles that go S & W of the mean end up in the EGOM?


But those ensembles don't show the slowing we are seeing. The slowing may be temporary, we will see.


I really hate to see the Cuban people suffer, but the longer it slowly moves West, the better (I think) it will be for Florida. All we have is time right now. I'll be up all night now. :cold:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8790 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:22 pm

WeatherOrKnot wrote:One person says slowing down means possibly east of track. Literally the next says west. Then back and forth. Can't be both ways. Using science, what is the possible outcome???


What I (and others) have mentioned 4 times now.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8791 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:22 pm



Why the eye roll for the truth? Every motion west as long as it's greater than south for the next day or so brings it closer to Florida.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8792 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:22 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:The eye has now shrunk all the way back to original size like it didnt just spend 24 hours doing a ERC>.

Watch it start another EWRC
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8793 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:23 pm



It's making landfall as a Cat 5 but florida gets all the attention. I'm glad Florida got a weaker hurricane than what Barbuda and the other islands went through. Just imagine the reaction if it didn't weaken at all. :roll:
Last edited by euro6208 on Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8794 Postby yzerfan » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:23 pm

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:
AdamFirst wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:Recon may not get to do anymore eye passes for a little while will they?


Won't do runs over land. Dropsondes crash safely into the water, not so much on land



well i know its an emergency and stuff but I am pretty sure there is politics involved. Cuban Government has scrambled MiG's in the past so we don't go with 14 miles of the exclusion zone without permission. It looks like today they have permission.


There has been careful negotiation in recent years, and it's somewhat common for NOAA civilian hurricane aircraft to be allowed into Cuban airspace for research purposes. If you look at final advisories of storms that have come close to Cuba from the past 5-10 years, you'll sometimes find notes at the end thanking the Cuban government for allowing those flights.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8795 Postby WeatherOrKnot » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:23 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
WeatherOrKnot wrote:One person says slowing down means possibly east of track. Literally the next says west. Then back and forth. Can't be both ways. Using science, what is the possible outcome???


What I (and others) have mentioned 4 times now.


I actually agree with you Aric I just don't understand how 2 people can literally be seeing the same thing but come up with different outcomes.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8796 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:23 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:The eye has now shrunk all the way back to original size like it didnt just spend 24 hours doing a ERC>.

Watch it start another EWRC


well not right away. takes some time to develop that outer eyewall. also wont do it with half its eyewall over land...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8797 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:24 pm

can we confirm its about to be overland??

Why is she diving into cuba like that?? only UKmet had it doing that then the others followed. Whats UKMET onto?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif
Last edited by SEASON_CANCELED on Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8798 Postby pokkeherrie » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:24 pm

Very breezy night in WPB. Watching the clouds roll by is a sight in itself.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8799 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:24 pm

WeatherOrKnot wrote:One person says slowing down means possibly east of track. Literally the next says west. Then back and forth. Can't be both ways. Using science, what is the possible outcome???


There are multiple possibilities depending on speed, direction and how far west it goes. You're going to have to wait and see.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8800 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:25 pm

WeatherOrKnot wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
WeatherOrKnot wrote:One person says slowing down means possibly east of track. Literally the next says west. Then back and forth. Can't be both ways. Using science, what is the possible outcome???


What I (and others) have mentioned 4 times now.


I actually agree with you Aric I just don't understand how 2 people can literally be seeing the same thing but come up with different outcomes.

one doesn't actually know? I dont know who said the opposite and dont want too either.
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