ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SEASON_CANCELED]

definately went southwest!!


see for yourself last frame

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[dukeblue219]

I may have missed this dropsonde because it was launched around 9:30, but the data wasn't transmitted until 10:19PM EDT (if I'm understanding this correctly). In any case:

Code: Select all

945mb (Surface)   75° (from the ENE)   114 knots (131 mph)
944mb   75° (from the ENE)   113 knots (130 mph)
940mb   75° (from the ENE)   133 knots (153 mph)
936mb   75° (from the ENE)   144 knots (166 mph)
920mb   90° (from the E)   173 knots (199 mph)
917mb   90° (from the E)   174 knots (200 mph)
908mb   90° (from the E)   160 knots (184 mph)
897mb   90° (from the E)   175 knots (201 mph)

Whoa. 200 mph within 25mb (less than 800 feet) from the surface.

[Michele B]

Still chugging west....I think the appearance of south of west was an illusion for sure.but maybe not. Either way if she don't gain latitude soon Cuba is going to be taking one for the team.

I'd be OK with that!

[tarheelprogrammer]

Bad news for Cuba, but good news for Florida if this continues. What is it doing?

[joey]

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/906331542598938625




John Morales‏Verified account @JohnMoralesNBC6 7m7 minutes ago

New from @NWSMiami: Severe to catastrophic impacts from Irma likely across South Florida

"Lake Okeechobee must be monitored for flooding"

This is for the keys and west coast correct thanks

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I have looked at that several ways on GOES and METEOSAT it wasn't an illusion, it dived southwest

[johngaltfla]

One person says slowing down means possibly east of track. Literally the next says west. Then back and forth. Can't be both ways. Using science, what is the possible outcome???

Yes.

[Aric Dunn]

I may have missed this dropsonde because it was launched around 9:30, but the data wasn't transmitted until 10:19PM EDT (if I'm understanding this correctly). In any case:

Code: Select all

945mb (Surface)   75° (from the ENE)   114 knots (131 mph)
944mb   75° (from the ENE)   113 knots (130 mph)
940mb   75° (from the ENE)   133 knots (153 mph)
936mb   75° (from the ENE)   144 knots (166 mph)
920mb   90° (from the E)   173 knots (199 mph)
917mb   90° (from the E)   174 knots (200 mph)
908mb   90° (from the E)   160 knots (184 mph)
897mb   90° (from the E)   175 knots (201 mph)

Whoa. 200 mph within 25mb (less than 800 feet) from the surface.

yeah just saw that.. thats crazy..

[Steve]

can we confirm its about to be overland??

Why is she diving into cuba like that?? only UKmet had it doing that then the others followed. Whats UKMET onto?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

UKMET was off of Cuba at 12Z today. Hurricane model HMON and the NAM are the ones on Cuba now. We'll have to see if it gets where either of them have it or if it just stays on those northern islands. We were talking about it on the model thread this afternoon that the spinning in relation to the direction of land could pull it in if it got close enough. Sometimes that happens but you usually see it in the W Gulf or BoC.

[Aric Dunn]

I have looked at that several ways on GOES and METEOSAT it wasn't an illusion, it dived southwest

then you did not check the recon fixes.. due west.

just the eye contracting on satellite..

[gatorcane]

definately went southwest!!


see for yourself last frame

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Certainly looks like it but could be eye contracting. For sure it has really out on the brakes.

[ava_ati]

One person says slowing down means possibly east of track. Literally the next says west. Then back and forth. Can't be both ways. Using science, what is the possible outcome???

Yes.

Well at least the forums are about as consistent as the models. Wait for the runs and the next nhc update like everyone else.

[Michele B]

I think if it moves more slowly west than expected, it would favor eastern side of NHC track because the weakness would open up when the position of Irma was further east in longitude.

But the ensembles that go S & W of the mean end up in the EGOM?

Doesn't matter. The slower it goes the more east it could end up.

I'm having a hard time seeing where the trough is going to make it down in time to the "Rendezvous point" to pick it up....

Maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part (that it would go into GoM).....

[stormhunter7]

Interesting AF recon data right now... Eye went from 23:52:10Z Circular with a diameter of 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) to 1:36:10Z Circular with a diameter of 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles)

[Michele B]

But the ensembles that go S & W of the mean end up in the EGOM?

But those ensembles don't show the slowing we are seeing.

I was so afraid of this scenario. I really think Irma isn't done surprising us.

Yer scaring me

[1900hurricane]

Looks like land interaction is starting to impact Irma. Eye temp has started cooling off as it skims the coast.

[Nederlander]

I have looked at that several ways on GOES and METEOSAT it wasn't an illusion, it dived southwest

Eye contracted... not a SW movement

[SEASON_CANCELED]

we will know when goes is a geosat so it does images very often.

[AutoPenalti]

It's about to go through another damn EWRC. This time over land I think.

[1900hurricane]

Interesting AF recon data right now... Eye went from 23:52:10Z Circular with a diameter of 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) to 1:36:10Z Circular with a diameter of 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles)

Probably largely a result of increased friction from land. Increased friction means parcels deviate left more directly towards low pressure, resulting in core contraction and probably filling.