ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Rail Dawg]

Heading to Naples.

Tallahassee is running out of fuel.

Hundreds of cars sitting at the gas stations waiting for the fuel trucks to arrive.

Diesel available.

I-10 westbound traffic crowded moving about 30 miles mph.

[stormreader]

8AM EDT advisory. Cat 4 937mb 130 mph.

[tolakram]

Key West saved radar loop

[jdjaguar]

These are the most dangerous types of storms. They loose their sex appeal and some of the younger ones (and unfortunately some who should know better) suddenly become expert hurricane forecasters and think the danger is over. Ike was a great example, with the huge windfield and massive surge when it finally lumbered onshore.

If you've come here to post about how this won't be so bad, or to argue with mets, or to criticize the NHC you will find posting privileges lost pretty quickly. This is not a platform to spread your sudden expertise or anger about a forecast not working out the way you wanted. Irma is a very dangerous storm and this is not the time to downplay it.

For some, it seems that the season is dead if no hurricane hits the CONUS. If the hurricane is a weak one, it's brushed off. And now if the system is not a cat.5 at landfall then it's downplayed.

While that is most definitely true for some posters, individuals who are likely young, without kids, homes they would like to protect etc, the majority of posters are not characterized by the traits you set forth.

Perhaps you are sensing the completely human response of relief that millions of people in the state of Florida are as of now no longer facing the 185/165/155 winds the hurricane previously held.

Obviously, the storm may regain strength to CAT 4 in the Florida straights, and will remain a dangerous storm for the residents of the SE US, but many of the catastrophic elements of the equation have been reduced, and for that I am grateful.

peace

[stormreader]

Key West saved radar loop

A little north wobble on last frame. At this point on NHC forecast chart is when WNW movement should end, and Irma should begin to trek between WNW and NW, if not true NW.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/WxDeFlitch/status/906355701945171968




Jacob DeFlitch @WxDeFlitch
Say it all the time, but @NHC_Atlantic does great work. Timing may be a bit off, but for a forecast made Monday, position is outstanding.
11:16 PM - Sep 8, 2017 · Stillwater, OK

[tropicwatch]

Looks like quite the northward jog looking at where the hh found the lowest pressure. Will have to see if this continues. Irma might want to leave Cuba early.

[BobHarlem]

Appears (or is it just the distance from the site) it's more offshore to the Key West Radar

[stormreader]

Appears (or is it just the distance from the site) it's more offshore to the Key West Radar

I think we can say that its off the coast now and entering back into the open waters of the Straits.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/906488832396111872

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/status/906405142781718529




NWS Key West ✔ @NWSKeyWest
It's not too late to get off the Keys!!! You still have time, this morning, to get out! Please, the Keys are not safe. #FLkeys #Irma
2:33 AM - Sep 9, 2017

[stormreader]

These are the most dangerous types of storms. They loose their sex appeal and some of the younger ones (and unfortunately some who should know better) suddenly become expert hurricane forecasters and think the danger is over. Ike was a great example, with the huge windfield and massive surge when it finally lumbered onshore.

If you've come here to post about how this won't be so bad, or to argue with mets, or to criticize the NHC you will find posting privileges lost pretty quickly. This is not a platform to spread your sudden expertise or anger about a forecast not working out the way you wanted. Irma is a very dangerous storm and this is not the time to downplay it.

For some, it seems that the season is dead if no hurricane hits the CONUS. If the hurricane is a weak one, it's brushed off. And now if the system is not a cat.5 at landfall then it's downplayed.

While that is most definitely true for some posters, individuals who are likely young, without kids, homes they would like to protect etc, the majority of posters are not characterized by the traits you set forth.

Perhaps you are sensing the completely human response of relief that millions of people in the state of Florida are as of now no longer facing the 185/165/155 winds the hurricane previously held.

Obviously, the storm may regain strength to CAT 4 in the Florida straights, and will remain a dangerous storm for the residents of the SE US, but many of the catastrophic elements of the equation have been reduced, and for that I am grateful.

peace

Except, not saying its likely, but I don't think you can totally rule out Cat 5 as it moves off SW Fl in the extreme SE GOM. Structure of storm very good. 937 mbs. May have dropped a mb or two since 5AM in last advisory at 8am.

[johngaltfla]

Hillsborough County (Tampa area) just issued mandatory evacs for Zone A. It's getting real folks. I've got to go. See you later on as I have final things to literally nail down.

[NDG]

Appears (or is it just the distance from the site) it's more offshore to the Key West Radar

ttps://i.imgur.com/J9LMFkb.gif

I think we can say that its off the coast now and entering back into the open waters of the Straits.

Not quiet yet into the open waters, it is currently tracking parallel to the coast, may jog back and forth into those barrier Islands (Cays).

[FireRat]

Thankfully Irma dropped somewhat in intensity, making the absolute worst case scenario less likely. However, it's a safe bet to say this monster of a storm will be worse than Wilma was 12 yrs ago, and will be THE storm for many Floridians who have lived in FL after Andrew. This storm could be similar to historic old time hurricanes like 1945, 1909, 1846. The 1846 hurricane may be the better comparison because that one blasted its way north like Irma is forecast and it was enormous in size.

Whether it hits as a Cat 3, 4 or 5, expect Florida's costliest or 2nd costliest hurricane on record. Storm surge will be an enormous danger this time around, unlike many recent past FL hurricanes.

Wishing tons of luck to all Floridians in Irma's path...do not turn your back on this beast.

[jdjaguar]

I am having difficulty determining storm surge projections for jax beach using the NHC surge maps, can anyone tell me what is forecast?

Or point me to a different site?

[jlauderdal]

Any news on the hurricane chasers chasing this?

@icycloneye was in florida city but sounds like he's going to the naples area....that might ultimately be better than the keys unless you want a surge event where keys will be best...problem with the lower keys is once you are there you are stuck since roads will be impassable until water recedes and debris cleared and you need to be 20 ft above sea level which is difficult unless you can hunker down with a local..west coast will be better because you can find the eye, get in it and be mobile afterwards plus much more to film as far as damage, etc, i know it sounds morbid and dangerous to some but that's how it rolls in that world..i drove up to palm beach with a friend during the peak of frances, we decided not to go any further, only other vehicles we saw on 95 were police and media...pulled off the road, saw debris flying and came back to fll

[tolakram]

While that is most definitely true for some posters, individuals who are likely young, without kids, homes they would like to protect etc, the majority of posters are not characterized by the traits you set forth.

Perhaps you are sensing the completely human response of relief that millions of people in the state of Florida are as of now no longer facing the 185/165/155 winds the hurricane previously held.

Obviously, the storm may regain strength to CAT 4 in the Florida straights, and will remain a dangerous storm for the residents of the SE US, but many of the catastrophic elements of the equation have been reduced, and for that I am grateful.

peace

Nope, you are wrong. The idea for evacuation is not always because your house will blow away, it's the amount of damage, loss of power, loss of basic necessities, basically the mess this thing is going to leave behind. Just review the Wilma videos of people crying about not being able to find water.

If people are prepared then let them make a decision for themselves, but don't come here and try to justify it, especially since IT HASN'T HAPPENED YET.

[Hurricane Andrew]

While that is most definitely true for some posters, individuals who are likely young, without kids, homes they would like to protect etc, the majority of posters are not characterized by the traits you set forth.

Perhaps you are sensing the completely human response of relief that millions of people in the state of Florida are as of now no longer facing the 185/165/155 winds the hurricane previously held.

Obviously, the storm may regain strength to CAT 4 in the Florida straights, and will remain a dangerous storm for the residents of the SE US, but many of the catastrophic elements of the equation have been reduced, and for that I am grateful.

peace

Nope, you are wrong. The idea for evacuation is not because your house will blow away, it's the amount of damage, loss of power, loss of basic necessities, basically the mess this thing is going to leave behind. Just review the Wilma videos of people crying about not being able to find water.

If people are prepared then let them make a decision for themselves, but don't come here and try to justify it, especially since IT HASN'T HAPPENED YET.

My gut says, and I am not a pro, that this will restrengthen. And even if it doesn't, Ike and Gustav and Sandy should show what landfalling C2s can do. For a 3? Katrina, Wilma, Dennis. A 4? Charley, Harvey, Ivan.

[jdjaguar]

While that is most definitely true for some posters, individuals who are likely young, without kids, homes they would like to protect etc, the majority of posters are not characterized by the traits you set forth.

Perhaps you are sensing the completely human response of relief that millions of people in the state of Florida are as of now no longer facing the 185/165/155 winds the hurricane previously held.

Obviously, the storm may regain strength to CAT 4 in the Florida straights, and will remain a dangerous storm for the residents of the SE US, but many of the catastrophic elements of the equation have been reduced, and for that I am grateful.

peace

Nope, you are wrong. The idea for evacuation is not because your house will blow away, it's the amount of damage, loss of power, loss of basic necessities, basically the mess this thing is going to leave behind. Just review the Wilma videos of people crying about not being able to find water.

If people are prepared then let them make a decision for themselves, but don't come here and try to justify it, especially since IT HASN'T HAPPENED YET.

I wasn't responding to your posting sir, I was replying to another poster. Perhaps you may have misinterpreted what I was trying to convey. in no way would I ever counsel anyone not to evacuate and am in no way justify a weakening trend as reason for anyone to let their guard down