ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Irma slightly E and fast of the forecast...

[StormingB81]

We’re in Melbourne FL and everyone’s saying we won’t even be getting hurricane force winds. Is there any truth to this? I don’t want to be complacent or let guard down.

Euro shows gusts up to 94

[WeatherGuesser]

We’re in Melbourne FL and everyone’s saying we won’t even be getting hurricane force winds. Is there any truth to this? I don’t want to be complacent or let guard down.

Who is 'everyone'?

[tolakram]

NWS Forecast - 144 MPH winds for West Coast of FL


Image link: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJSKF9AWAAIVF-r.jpg

That is not a NWS map, that's a Weatherbell map showing one of the models.

That is the NWS gridded forecast (NDFD National Digital Forecast Database)

Woops, thanks.

[joey]

Model Forecast wind gusts for entire FL Peninsula:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/stat us/906580586143404032[/tweet]

Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 2h2 hours ago

Model forecast wind gusts are consistent w/Category 4 hurricane up entire Florida peninsula ... NWS forecasts have been nearly same.

Is this recent sf is not getting this

[KBBOCA]

REFUGE OF LAST RESORT IN KEY WEST:

 https://twitter.com/City_of_KeyWest/status/906498371288006657




City of Key West‏ @City_of_KeyWest 7h7 hours ago

REFUGE OF LAST RESORT in Key West: Key West High School gym. Opened at 7 am, no services; bring what you need. Pets allowed.

[Hurricaneman]

We’re in Melbourne FL and everyone’s saying we won’t even be getting hurricane force winds. Is there any truth to this? I don’t want to be complacent or let guard down.

Euro shows gusts up to 94

Whom ever made the decision from emergency management needs to rethink that as there's still expected to be hurricane conditions

[SouthFLTropics]

All buttoned up here in Western Port St. Lucie. Now just to wait for Irma to see what she has for us. Think we'll see some decent wind here but nothing like what Naples and Fort Myers is going to experience. I'm leaving my weather station up to monitor it as long as I have power and internet. If anyone would like to follow it on Wunderground the station ID is KFLPORTS97. As long as I have power and internet it will still broadcast...as long as it doesn't blow away.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Recon shows pretty weak SFMRs compared to earlier...why is that?

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KWBC 092010
NOAA9 2811A IRMA HDOB 17 20170909
200100 2537N 07558W 1653 13666 0677 -600 //// 233020 020 /// /// 05
200130 2533N 07559W 1653 13663 0675 -598 //// 236020 020 /// /// 05
200200 2530N 07559W 1637 13730 0677 -598 //// 246019 019 /// /// 05
200230 2526N 07600W 1629 13756 0676 -600 //// 251018 019 /// /// 05
200300 2523N 07600W 1615 13807 0676 -605 //// 253016 016 /// /// 05
200330 2519N 07601W 1614 13813 0674 -609 //// 240016 017 /// /// 05
200400 2515N 07602W 1614 13814 0675 -606 //// 246016 017 /// /// 05
200430 2512N 07602W 1614 13816 0676 -608 //// 240015 015 /// /// 05
200500 2508N 07603W 1614 13814 0676 -608 //// 240014 015 /// /// 05
200530 2505N 07603W 1614 13816 0677 -610 //// 226012 013 /// /// 05
200600 2501N 07604W 1614 13816 0677 -614 //// 215011 012 /// /// 05
200630 2457N 07604W 1614 13816 0677 -613 //// 209012 012 /// /// 05
200700 2454N 07605W 1614 13818 0678 -608 //// 228016 018 /// /// 05
200730 2450N 07605W 1614 13817 0678 -605 //// 237020 021 /// /// 05
200800 2447N 07606W 1614 13817 0679 -605 //// 239022 023 /// /// 05
200830 2443N 07607W 1614 13816 0680 -605 //// 240023 024 /// /// 05
200900 2439N 07607W 1615 13816 0680 -606 //// 241023 024 /// /// 05
200930 2436N 07608W 1615 13817 0681 -606 //// 238022 022 /// /// 05
201000 2432N 07608W 1615 13818 0681 -607 //// 240021 022 /// /// 05
201030 2429N 07609W 1615 13817 0681 -606 //// 243022 023 /// /// 05

[KBBOCA]

ALL major 12Z model runs predicting pretty significant strengthening up to landfall:

 https://twitter.com/AlexJLamers/status/906590531383386112




Alex Lamers‏Verified account @AlexJLamers 1h1 hour ago

12Z models show #Irma strengthening up to FL landfall. 24h press falls from 2 PM today: HWRF -10mb, ECMWF -24mb, GFS -32mb.
0 replies 17 retweets 13 likes

[Cee22]

We’re in Melbourne FL and everyone’s saying we won’t even be getting hurricane force winds. Is there any truth to this? I don’t want to be complacent or let guard down.

Who is 'everyone'?

Locals on social media
The news just verified what someone here just said about gusts in the 90s so I’ll stick with the news and this thread for updates

[Buck]

ALL major 12Z model runs predicting pretty significant strengthening up to landfall:

 https://twitter.com/AlexJLamers/status/906590531383386112




Alex Lamers‏Verified account @AlexJLamers 1h1 hour ago

12Z models show #Irma strengthening up to FL landfall. 24h press falls from 2 PM today: HWRF -10mb, ECMWF -24mb, GFS -32mb.
0 replies 17 retweets 13 likes

Wow at that GFS pressure drop projection...

[KBBOCA]

This is not the NHC / NWS, but still really really concerning:

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906593393840721923




Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 1h1 hour ago

Satellite objective intensity estimate from Auto Dvorak went from 5 to 6 in 4 hours. Really fearing Hurricane #Irma bombs to Cat 5.

[Raebie]

Wishing all of the Florida folks here nothing but the best. Do some last minute laundry, take a hot shower, bake some cookies...and of course have your favorite beverage of choice. Love to all of you. Xoxo

[galaxy401]

Recon shows pretty weak SFMRs compared to earlier...why is that?

That was from a pass around 2 hours ago. It's possible they missed the strongest winds. Another idea is that Irma may have been weaker than thought this morning. Don't know about the newest pass though.

[KBBOCA]

Some signs of disruption to Irma = sliver of good news??

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/906598462409641985




Levi Cowan‏ @TropicalTidbits 1h1 hour ago

Recon trace is classic of a land-disrupted storm. Tight 15-mile eye reported w/ flat wind profile. Likely to reorganize w/larger eye. #Irma

[KBBOCA]

Former NHC Director Rick Knabb also warms of significant restrengthening

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/906603296646934528




Dr. Rick Knabb‏Verified account @DrRickKnabb 43m43 minutes ago

Eye of #Irma departing coast of Cuba and already looking more organized. Poised to restrengthen to cat 4 (or maybe 5) on way to Florida.

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon finding extrapolated pressures are dropping fairly quickly. Since the wind field is broad it may take a while for the peak winds to respond to the dropping pressures. This is one very large hurricane.

[Frank P]

I can guarantee that little shed in the stream will be gone pretty soon... waves are noticeably larger from just 30 minutes ago and crashing over the barrier wall with much greater force and frequency.. great stream, probably not going to last long once things go down hill...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7ld45pUueQ