ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JTD17]

Hey guys, first post! Yay me!

Just wondering if we have a VDM yet? Please post once it's available.

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KWBC 092321
NOAA2 2711A IRMA HDOB 37 20170909
231130 2329N 08059W 6955 02753 9525 +142 //// 042090 093 087 015 01
231200 2331N 08100W 6961 02774 9564 +134 //// 048097 099 082 034 01
231230 2332N 08101W 6967 02795 9599 +133 +128 050101 102 076 025 00
231300 2334N 08102W 6956 02836 9633 +129 +113 052096 098 073 013 00
231330 2336N 08103W 6960 02849 9650 +135 +111 052091 092 069 010 00
231400 2337N 08104W 6955 02872 9668 +133 +114 052086 087 065 009 00
231430 2339N 08105W 6962 02879 9687 +129 +125 053083 084 063 008 00
231500 2341N 08106W 6957 02896 9698 +131 +126 053079 081 063 008 00
231530 2342N 08107W 6961 02904 9713 +131 +124 053077 077 061 005 00
231600 2344N 08109W 6967 02909 9727 +131 +117 052075 076 058 003 00
231630 2346N 08110W 6963 02922 9737 +131 +117 052075 075 058 003 00
231700 2347N 08111W 6967 02929 9748 +131 +117 053073 073 058 003 00
231730 2349N 08112W 6968 02935 9756 +132 +114 054071 072 056 003 00
231800 2351N 08113W 6962 02949 9762 +133 +114 055071 072 056 003 00
231830 2352N 08114W 6969 02946 9768 +134 +116 055069 070 054 004 00
231900 2354N 08115W 6965 02962 9778 +134 +116 056068 068 055 003 00
231930 2356N 08116W 6952 02983 9785 +133 +116 056067 068 055 003 00
232000 2358N 08117W 6955 02986 9792 +133 +109 057066 067 057 001 00
232030 2359N 08118W 6958 02988 9803 +128 +111 058065 066 057 002 00
232100 2401N 08120W 6963 02987 9808 +128 +118 058066 066 058 002 00

[GCANE]

[KWT]

Have any papers been written on why Ike maintained that double wind maximum? Was that just an extremely long EWRC?

It wasn't just one long EWRC, it literally just had one after another, no sooner did the outer eyewall become dominant another band formed, I think at one point there was actually 3 eyewalls with Ike.

Worth noting the ECM ensembles are further west and alot keep it offshore, they also have a much slower motion, most barely move this northwards till around 12z, so roughly a 12hr period of very little motion (probably similar to current motion).

Aric, yeah your right, still these little pushes westwards will make a BIG difference for places like Tampa for example.

[WeatherOrKnot]

We are in Lantana. 7 of us are in an interior bathroom.

[BrandonJay21]

Some live cam links for Key West. Don't know how long they'll work, of course.

Marathon https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaErEed7UPI
Mallory Square https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUwIkt56IIQ
Southern Most Beach Resort https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNCwj35OwmI
Key West Seaport https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYEXQdUFha8
"Two Friends Rooftop" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGD1byu7gJc

I've been watching these the last hour or so and you can really see the progress. Especially the Southern Most Beach Resort feed!

Southern Most Beach Resort is addicting to watch

[dukeblue219]

Wasn't the lift suppose to happen today?

Tonight. This image was the 11pm forecast from last night.

(OLD FORECAST IMAGE BELOW!! NOT CURRENT!!)

[LarryWx]

Wasn't the lift suppose to happen today?

Later tonight. But I'd say that if ther's still no evidence of a turn starting by 2AM, there may need to be a track change.

[Aric Dunn]

mid level shear will be increases will be increases as that low drops south.. so the window will be closing for any RI in about 12 to 18 hours.

[bordot]

John Morales really is on the top of his game, spotting the potential tornado activity before the warnings are even released. You can watch him on NBC6 here.

[bluespiderfl]

is there a chance that it stalls and takes a more central track up Florida?

[Bolebuns]

I actually see a guy walking around out there. Odds he lives?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUhXfVNW-Jg

[Frank P]

boy the eye has contracted a lot...looks very small on IR

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KWBC 092331
NOAA2 2711A IRMA HDOB 38 20170909
232130 2403N 08120W 6958 02996 9814 +128 +113 057063 064 058 002 00
232200 2405N 08121W 6966 02992 9822 +126 +111 058061 062 058 003 00
232230 2407N 08122W 6960 03003 9824 +128 +112 059061 063 060 004 00
232300 2408N 08123W 6960 03007 9835 +123 +115 060063 064 059 004 00
232330 2410N 08124W 6969 03002 9841 +121 +120 060066 069 060 009 00
232400 2412N 08125W 6968 03006 9848 +119 +117 064069 069 058 010 00
232430 2414N 08126W 6971 03002 9852 +118 +117 070068 071 058 008 00
232500 2416N 08126W 6951 03039 9860 +116 //// 072072 074 056 007 01
232530 2418N 08127W 6957 03034 9865 +118 //// 070073 073 056 005 01
232600 2420N 08128W 6965 03032 9873 +116 //// 067072 074 055 007 01
232630 2421N 08129W 6978 03021 9880 +115 //// 067071 072 053 007 01
232700 2423N 08130W 6958 03048 9889 +112 //// 065070 072 053 007 05
232730 2425N 08131W 6965 03049 9894 +114 +112 061073 075 051 008 03
232800 2427N 08132W 6968 03048 9898 +118 +086 060076 076 /// /// 03
232830 2429N 08133W 6957 03064 9905 +117 +074 061076 076 /// /// 03
232900 2430N 08134W 6962 03062 9913 +115 +078 061076 076 /// /// 03
232930 2432N 08136W 6963 03066 9917 +114 +084 060073 074 /// /// 03
233000 2434N 08137W 6965 03067 9925 +111 +086 061073 073 /// /// 03
233030 2436N 08138W 6969 03064 9926 +111 +092 064070 071 /// /// 03
233100 2437N 08139W 6957 03082 9926 +114 +090 065070 070 /// /// 03

[tolakram]

Hi all,

just a reminder we do have a chat room that works better than this thread for some of the back and forth conversation.

First post has instructions, a good number of people already in so please join us.

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=111692

[thundercam96]

1st tornado report in CONUS from Irma on SPC's website.

[Blown Away]

I think it's still possible for Irma to miss just W of KW and the peninsula up to NE panhandle...

[Michele B]

If you have the matrials use a 2x4 or long piece of wood under the door supports. Measure the distance out and secure a block of wood to the floor to hold it in place.

Thanks for the suggestion. Talking it over right now. Hubs thinks he has an idea of something he could "rig up" to work!

If it does, I'll take a pic. If it doesn't...I guess I won't have a garage anymore (or maybe a house)

Just letting others know: we just put two sheets of 4x8 plywood, 3/4 inch thick up against the doors. It's all he could do. He's just done in. He's been shuttering up - not just our house, but several widow ladies that we are friends with. He's been working non-stop for 3 days getting lots of people ready. Took 2 hours one night fixing a generator for one widow lady (the mechanic who works on them had already closed his garage and headed for the hills!) Anyway, he's just that kinda guy! Meanwhile, our place comes last!

Hope our garage is OK. We've parked both cars (actually high-profile vehicles) up against it on the outside, so we've got plywood inside and the vehicles outside...

[Falling Soil]

We are in Lantana. 7 of us are in an interior bathroom.

Lantana? Unless there is a tornado in the area it seems too early for that..

[Kat5]

I think it's still possible for Irma to miss just W of KW and the peninsula up to NE panhandle...

That's been my thinking all day, the panhandle is becoming a likely target for Irma!