ATL: MARIA - Models

[Ken711]

Outer Banks and Virginia Beach here we come.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Fantasy land at this point. Looks like it will still send it NE after a close approach. I'm not sure we'll know anything for a few more days.

[ronjon]

Fantasy land at this point. Looks like it will still send it NE after a close approach. I'm not sure we'll know anything for a few more days.

Yeah I don't believe 9-10 day track forecast. What it does tell me are the models are in a state of flux now and we probably won't know for another 3-4 days where Maria will go after the SE Bahamas.

[RL3AO]

It hasn't been mentioned much on here, but one of the key features that may keep Maria away from the East Coast is this upper trough that develops as the jet stream splits over the US in the next couple of days.

[ronjon]

That trof dissipates eventually according to GFS but something to watch. If GFS to be believed, a significant slow down days 6-9.

[Dean4Storms]

If it stalls in the Bahamas or the timing of it arriving there is any slower according to this GFS run then all bets are off. Trough dissipates and Jose falls apart and/or heads out and leaves Maria behind that next trough from the Great Lakes does not show until the weekend after next..... we have a problem Houston.

[northjaxpro]

If it stalls in the Bahamas or the timing of it arriving there is any slower according to this GFS run then all bets are off. Trough dissipates and Jose falls apart and/or heads out and leaves Maria behind that next trough from the Great Lakes does not show until the weekend after next..... we have a problem Houston.

This is not out of the realm of possibilities. Every thing is still on the table concerning this powerful hurricane. We must remain vigilant!

[Ken711]

If it stalls in the Bahamas or the timing of it arriving there is any slower according to this GFS run then all bets are off. Trough dissipates and Jose falls apart and/or heads out and leaves Maria behind that next trough from the Great Lakes does not show until the weekend after next..... we have a problem Houston.

If it stalls in the Bahamas or is slower, wouldn't that also provide a chance for the ridge to start breaking down over time?

[CFLHurricane]

If it stalls in the Bahamas or the timing of it arriving there is any slower according to this GFS run then all bets are off. Trough dissipates and Jose falls apart and/or heads out and leaves Maria behind that next trough from the Great Lakes does not show until the weekend after next..... we have a problem Houston.

If it stalls in the Bahamas or is slower, wouldn't that also provide a chance for the ridge to start breaking down over time?

Or pumped up. Between the the timing of Maria, the departure of José, and land interaction, there's just too many variables for the time being.

[floridasun78]

my miami weatherman say he need watch if jose weakening fastest could cause high build fast to west take weakness out by thur we see what happing could cause hurr move more into Bahamas he say fl not out wood yet in long shot

[MJGarrison]

I'm new to the forums, but have a couple weather related questions from the discussion on the past few days.

1. We seem to be discounting the fact that Jose could strengthen as a tropical system, but could it strengthen as a non tropical system? Would Maria still be steered toward Jose in that case? Are the models showing Jose fully tropical?

2. NHC seems to agree that Jose will quickly reduce to TS winds (whether its tropical or not) and remain that way, yet their track for Maria seems to follow the models which show a Jose strengthen. Is this a contradiction? Should their track be more west or would Maria continue to track North regardless of Jose's strength?

3. This is related to the second. Discussion is that the threat to Florida is reducing, but if Jose were to quickly dissipate, what would cause Maria to turn toward the north vs continuing west toward Florida?

Some of these might be basic, but they will help those of us who are new understand some of the comments. Thanks.

[JBCycloneStan]

Why are so many forecasters conveying certainty as to Maria's lack of interaction with the CONUS? I'm seeing reports such as "Maria WILL take path similar to Jose...". Very disconcerting and irresponsible.

[jlauderdal]

my miami weatherman say he need watch if jose weakening fastest could cause high build fast to west take weakness out by thur we see what happing could cause hurr move more into Bahamas he say fl not out wood yet in long shot

did craig setzer say that?

[GeneratorPower]

Why are so many forecasters conveying certainty as to Maria's lack of interaction with the CONUS? I'm seeing reports such as "Maria WILL take path similar to Jose...". Very disconcerting and irresponsible.

Because audiences want certainty more than accuracy. They don't process the word "maybe". They want someone that sounds authoritative even if they end up being wrong. This is especially true of local market TV mets.

[LarryWx]

A strong majority of the 18Z GEFS members are offshore the SE US. Looks better than the 12Z GEFS, a good sign for now especially when also considering the mainly offshore 12Z EPS members. If I were a betting man, I'd go offshore but it is still too early to call.

[floridasun78]

my miami weatherman say he need watch if jose weakening fastest could cause high build fast to west take weakness out by thur we see what happing could cause hurr move more into Bahamas he say fl not out wood yet in long shot

did craig setzer say that?

yes

[Ken711]

A strong majority of the 18Z GEFS members are offshore the SE US. Looks better than the 12Z GEFS, a good sign for now especially when also considering the mainly offshore 12Z EPS members. If I were a betting man, I'd go offshore but it is still too early to call.

Wish that was also the case for NC.

[jabman98]

Is Maria's Cat 5 status being well represented in the models?

[ronjon]

I'm new to the forums, but have a couple weather related questions from the discussion on the past few days.

1. We seem to be discounting the fact that Jose could strengthen as a tropical system, but could it strengthen as a non tropical system? Would Maria still be steered toward Jose in that case? Are the models showing Jose fully tropical?

2. NHC seems to agree that Jose will quickly reduce to TS winds (whether its tropical or not) and remain that way, yet their track for Maria seems to follow the models which show a Jose strengthen. Is this a contradiction? Should their track be more west or would Maria continue to track North regardless of Jose's strength?

3. This is related to the second. Discussion is that the threat to Florida is reducing, but if Jose were to quickly dissipate, what would cause Maria to turn toward the north vs continuing west toward Florida?

Some of these might be basic, but they will help those of us who are new understand some of the comments. Thanks.

I'll give it a shot MJ:

1. Jose is falling apart as a tropical entity. Board posters and some METs are questioning global model results showing a strengthening tropical system. Could it strengthen as a non-tropical entity? I suppose, but usually that involves baroclinic forcing (i.e. Upper level enhancement) which I'm not sure is supported based on current synoptics.

2.I believe the logic here is that the sooner Jose weakens (or moves further east), the quicker midlevel ridging builds in and steers Maria more west or NW. A wildcard in this is a GOM trough that could still steer Maria north.

3. See number 2.