ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

JOse just hours away now from rapidily decreasing water temps.. "should" steady or fast weakening.... I said should becasue that is what normally happens. but some of the models say some magic spells get used and Jose deepens quite a bit..

Cant possibly deepen as a warm core; a deepening barolclinic process perhaps?

some models have an eye and everything..lol this is why there is so much uncertainty.

[ronjon]

JOse just hours away now from rapidily decreasing water temps.. "should" steady or fast weakening.... I said should becasue that is what normally happens. but some of the models say some magic spells get used and Jose deepens quite a bit..

Cant possibly deepen as a warm core; a deepening barolclinic process perhaps?

some models have an eye and everything..lol this is why there is so much uncertainty.

if there was a trough with baroclinic forcing Jose would be swept out to sea so I think the models are strengthening a tropical system.

[dukeblue219]

Extrapolated pressure now 914.6, SFMR 143knots in the NE (edit: NW) quadrant.

[Aric Dunn]

wow.. pressure just bombed out..

[dukeblue219]

wow.. pressure just bombed out..

Assuming no issues with the raw data, that was 5mb from the previous center fix's extrapolated number. Wow.

[Aric Dunn]

Extrapolated pressure now 914.6, SFMR 143knots in the NE quadrant.

well north quad.. but yeah.. big pressure drop.. they also missed the center as there was still 43kt of winds so 912 mb

i guess technically nw quad

[chaser1]

Cant possibly deepen as a warm core; a deepening barolclinic process perhaps?

some models have an eye and everything..lol this is why there is so much uncertainty.

if there was a trough with baroclinic forcing Jose would be swept out to sea so I think the models are strengthening a tropical system.

...and that's after dipping its toe into 23C SST's?? Jose better be wearing a wetsuit

[JBCycloneStan]

Wow. That pressure drop is frightening... going for Irma's numbers right now.

[Aric Dunn]

some models have an eye and everything..lol this is why there is so much uncertainty.

if there was a trough with baroclinic forcing Jose would be swept out to sea so I think the models are strengthening a tropical system.

...and that's after dipping its toe into 23C SST's?? Jose better be wearing a wetsuit

some cases at its farthest north point 19c water..

[supercane4867]

Maria is definitely making Irma scared. The pressure could very well drop below Irma's 914mb, but may not have stronger winds depends on how EWRC goes.

[dukeblue219]

Extrapolated pressure now 914.6, SFMR 143knots in the NE quadrant.

well north quad.. but yeah.. big pressure drop.. they also missed the center as there was still 43kt of winds so 912 mb

i guess technically nw quad

You're correct obviously... got my E-W directions mixed up! This was a NW-SE pass.

[GCANE]

Rain rate up to 75 mm/hr, no double wind max.
EWRC done.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/910229975428722690

[Aric Dunn]

Rain rate up to 75 mm/hr, no double wind max.
EWRC done.

yes there is.. and the ERC cant be done..

the NW quad winds on the double wind maxium are smaller but the SW to NE pass are still there. this one os going to take some time.

[Portaransas]

Big 7.1 quake in Mexico.
Damage in Mexico City.

https://earthquake-report.com/2017/09/1 ... r-19-2017/

I hope that and Maria doesn't destabilize the Carib Plate.

I almost just posted the same thing. There have been studies that suggest a causal relationship between low pressures during hurricanes and the triggering of earthquakes. Of course it could be coincidental, but it's worth considering due to the proximity of Maria to the southern boundary of the Caribbean plate and the earthquake which was just to the north of it. That would be very interesting to look at.

Also worth noting that Mexico had an 8.1 quake September 8th just off its pacific coast (very close to Caribbean plate boundry) as Irma was a Cat 5 in the Carribean (at that time north of Puerto Rico).

Interestingly, the big 8.0 Mexico City earthquake of 1985 happened right around the same time as Hurricane Gloria began to intensify.

Regardless, these tragedies are human tragedies and my heart goes out to the people affected in Mexico and the Caribbean.

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 19:42:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°42'N 63°49'W (16.7N 63.8167W)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 143kts (~ 164.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the NW (317°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 50° at 145kts (From the NE at ~ 166.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the NW (317°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 916mb (27.05 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 153kts (~ 176.1mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the E (94°) from the flight level center at 17:54:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 110° at 4kts (From the ESE at 5mph)

[Aric Dunn]

See the outer eyewall from NW to SE is weaker.. still has a bunch of work to do to cut off that strong inner core

[drezee]

Let me give some real-time data:
With current recon fix, Maria will have to turn to 309° for the center to pass directly over San Juan. It is moving about 298° right now. Unless she turns quickly, PR will be in the eye and San Juan in the NE eyewall. Current heading gets the center of the eye near ponce...

[HurricaneRyan]

Maria trying to snatch Irma's wig...

[supercane4867]

Getting back to 7.0

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 930.3mb/134.8kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +9.4C Cloud Region Temp : -73.5C

Scene Type : EYE