ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

well at least for now looks like the pressure has leveled off.

It might have gone down another mb or two.

[NDG]

912.7 mb?

Extrap, waiting for the dropsonde reading.

[chaser1]

umm ok... last 20 min or so radar showing the outer eyewall has pretty much filled in ... weird..

A new breed of ERC.... its the new "Reverse ERC" (RERC). Kinda like what a "white hole" might look as compared to a "black hole" in space?

[Aric Dunn]

yeah very strange this last pass the outer wind maxima is way less and barely noticable. radar confirming what appears to be a sudden abrupt end to the ERC

[ronyan]

Maybe the inner eyewall won.

[NDG]

Pressure down to 913mb!!!!!!!!

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 913mb (26.96 inHg)

[RL3AO]

Maybe the inner eyewall won.

It happened with Irma when it first got up to cat 5. It looked like an EWRC was underway and then it just stopped.

[chaser1]

I see that NOAA is finally sampling the atmosphere around Maria, will go into tonight's 0z model runs.

Sure hope there's at least one more additional Gulfstream flight following todays. That way models would really be able to digest new data obs verses short terms outcomes of initial model runs

[NDG]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 21:29Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Storm Number & Year: 15 in 2017
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 17 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 21:12:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°46'N 63°58'W (16.7667N 63.9667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 179 statute miles (288 km) to the SE (129°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,356m (7,730ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 137kts (~ 157.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the NNE (21°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 102° at 148kts (From the ESE at ~ 170.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the NNE (21°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 913mb (26.96 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 148kts (~ 170.3mph) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NNE (21°) from the flight level center at 21:10:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 15° at 5kts (From the NNE at 6mph)

[supercane4867]

With pressure down to 913mb, Maria is officially the deepest system of the year so far and she's still deepening.

[CrazyC83]

How low will Maria go? Sub-900?

[Aric Dunn]

The red circle is where the outer eyewall was clearly established an hour ago.. you can see that has pretty much disapeared with convection filling in between the inner and outer..

the real intriguing thing that narrow shallow ring of convection ( blue arrows pointing at it) that has been expanding outward from the the center when you run the loop..

and oer recon the eye has become larger again..

[chaser1]

Pressure down to 913mb!!!!!!!!

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 913mb (26.96 inHg)

Last thing Puerto Rico residents want to hear. Might not be all that long before we see surface winds catch up to the pressure drop

[NDG]

Incredible.

[SunnyThoughts]

So the eye actually went from 5 nautical miles to 10 nautical miles this last pass, and pressure still going down. Unreal.

[EquusStorm]

A few more millibars and we will be entering top ten territory.

[Extratropical94]

Center dropsonde has 913 mbars and 5 knots.

[flamingosun]

Wind field:

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

From the 5PM advisory

not according to recon..

What is recon reporting re: size of the wind fields?

[Exalt]

So are we having another Irma situation where the Outer Eyewall simply merges with the Inner Eyewall?

[PandaCitrus]

If you look at the south coat of Puerto Rico on satellite imagery, there are lots of gaps between cities of rural lands and forest/mountain lands. With the narrow wind field, the best we can hope for at this point is a hit a little further west on the south coast, avoiding the major population centers around san juan. Where this lands will determine whether you have localized or island wide devastation. Eyewall in San Juan a metro over 1.5 million would be a nightmare.