ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sanibel]

St Croix getting eyewall on SSD AVN loop...Apparently loop is slightly mis-calibrated..

[SoupBone]

St Croix is in for a very rough few hours.

[Salix88]

Also, Puerto Rico's Cordillera Central (main mountain range) is almost 100 miles long. I'm concerned that with a few hours in a western movement due to the interaction with the mountain range (instead of the current WNW or NNW), the trajectory could come closer to DR.

Hugo's track didn't deviate west a bit; and it was a large major hurricane as it approached NE Puerto Rico banging up against those same mountains. In fact, it tracked a little to the right of how it had been the night before scrapping past Luquillo/Fajardo.

Hugo's landed both on Vieques and around Fajardo on the eastern tip of the Island. I think the interaction of the eye with the Cordillera Central was limited, perhaps Hugo isn't the best example.

Hugo was very hard on Puerto Rico, we didn't have electricity for nearly a month where i lived.

[Hurrilurker]

Unfortunately it looks like St. Croix's hotel-casino webcam finally gave up the ghost, it's just looping the last thing it saw now. Surprised it lasted that long TBH.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/910341933607858176




A @WeatherFlowCHAS station at Sandy Point NWR, St. Croix, gusted to 106 mph at 11:08 PM ET. Pressure 974 mb. #Maria
11:16 PM - Sep 19, 2017

[CrazyC83]

The outer eyewall now has major hurricane force winds. No way does St. Croix avoid at least cat 3-4 conditions.

[NDG]

Looks like pressure has held steady since last recon pass.

[Aric Dunn]

pretty much no weakening thus far.. geez.. what changed with the ERC this year..

[Hurrilurker]

Holding steady, latest 908 mb. St. Croix is going to get hammered so hard on the south side.

[tolakram]

saved radar loop

[SoupBone]

I need to go to sleep, but now all I can think about is some poster several pages ago saying a friend of his was riding it out on St Croix with her 4 dogs, alone. I'm all amped up now thinking about that.

[supercane4867]

The outer eyewall has strengthened with major hurricane force winds while inner eyewall still maintains CAT5 windspeed. This is as worse as it gets.

[EquusStorm]

Perhaps it deepened a bit after last recon left and is back up to where it was now? Either way, 908 is an INCREDIBLY low pressure in this basin. I just hope the replacement cycle brought surface winds down a little for the sake of St Croix, but it won't matter that much with the outer eyewall so big and intense now...

[Sanibel]

West wobble right before St Croix will probably spare them the worst...

[tolakram]

030800 1712N 06445W 6962 02630 9412 +133 +109 270111 113 102 008 00
030830 1714N 06445W 6983 02503 9320 +143 +128 271111 117 112 030 00
030900 1715N 06445W 6950 02447 9188 +158 +142 272076 102 109 021 00
030930 1717N 06445W 6972 02364 9106 +197 +131 272034 059 069 003 03
031000 1719N 06445W 6963 02357 9075 +215 +102 011002 022 030 001 00
031030 1721N 06445W 6969 02344 9077 +206 +115 078021 029 035 001 03
031100 1722N 06444W 6969 02352 9093 +192 +127 100046 056 062 001 03
031130 1723N 06443W 6969 02368 9122 +177 +133 119080 095 109 003 03
031200 1724N 06442W 6974 02419 //// +142 //// 124116 122 139 000 05
031230 1725N 06441W 6942 02537 //// +112 //// 128139 146 141 001 05
031300 1726N 06440W 6991 02558 //// +090 //// 127145 147 134 001 01
031330 1727N 06439W 6965 02650 9478 +109 +093 131137 145 115 001 00
031400 1728N 06438W 6972 02693 9529 +113 +098 132125 133 102 001 00
031430 1729N 06437W 6969 02740 9563 +123 +095 134116 123 094 000 03
031500 1730N 06436W 6971 02774 //// +113 //// 137116 117 098 000 01
031530 1731N 06435W 6966 02813 9646 +115 +112 139117 117 099 010 00
031600 1732N 06433W 6969 02836 9695 +116 +116 137123 126 102 012 00
031630 1733N 06432W 6975 02853 9731 +109 +109 138126 127 105 011 00
031700 1734N 06431W 6970 02886 9766 +105 +105 138121 125 104 012 00

[Aric Dunn]

st croix is very close for ne eyewall. but looks like a little more wobbling to the left recently.. it will get the outer eyewall regardless..

[MWatkins]

Hurricane force winds have expanded with the latest eyewall replacement cycle - latest 12 hour wind forecast for PR and the VI (yellow, hurricane force, orange = 50 knots, blue, TS winds)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKIvy5JUMAA9yFu.jpg:large

MW

[NDG]

Hopeful that most of St Croix will not see the strongest winds with the inner eyewall as it passes to the south of them. Looking at the recon 125 mph winds is the highest they may see except the most southern tip.

[PaulR]

I learn something new every day:

Hurricane Warning
Caribbean Sea
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
1045 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Tropical N Atlantic from 07N to
22N between 55W and 64W, the SW N Atlantic S of 31N W of 65W
including Bahamas, and the Caribbean Sea.

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

AMZ125-201445-
Atlantic S of 22N between 65W and 70W including Puerto Rico
Trench-
1045 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...HURRICANE WARNING...

.OVERNIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NE to E winds
20 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft.
.WED...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NE to E winds 35 to
40 kt, increasing to 45 to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft,
building to 18 ft in the afternoon. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NE to E winds 55 to
65 kt, increasing to 85 to 105 kt late. Seas 27 ft,
building to 35 ft late. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.THU...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. E to SE winds 90 to
110 kt. Seas 32 to 34 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
VSBY 1 NM or less.
.THU NIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SE to S winds 85 to
105 kt. Seas 27 to 30 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
VSBY 1 NM or less.
.FRI...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.SAT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.SAT NIGHT...SE to S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 9 ft.
.SUN...SE to S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

Emphasized portions, my emphasis.

Wow.

[EquusStorm]

I find it really concerning that I'm hoping winds on St Croix are only category 3-4 intensity. This season is really messing with my concepts of normals. Most of these islands hit by Irma and Maria haven't had a hit anywhere near this in modern history.