ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

looks like convection already starting to build around the likely well organized center. for the next 48 hours shear will be low.. could deepen much faster...

[NDG]

Most of the 00z intensity guidance keep 90L as TS through 132 hrs... Thinking sheared TS is likely outcome...

Most Intensity models have been worthless most of the time this season.

[Jelff]

Here is a map displaying ocean temperature for yesterday via the NASA GIBS program and the likelihood of cyclone formation.

Map link:
https://mappingsupport.com/p/gmap4.php? ... arent=true

[abajan]

Northwest Caribbean Sea is notorious for powerful canes. Better watch this.

[Hurrilurker]

I think the farther east it is, the stronger it will be. A track to the east means less interaction with Central America and the Yucatan and likely sending it into the gap (and the water well offshore is a factory for extreme storms). A track to the west means significant land interaction, so it could enter the Gulf as a disrupted mess.

Maybe, but Harvey was somewhat of a disorganized mess coming off the Yucatan...

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

On sat-pic this looks a TD, not a invest.

[WeatherEmperor]

0z GFS coming in much weaker so far




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[Aric Dunn]

quite a bit more land interaction on the 00z GFS though it has done very poorly thus far this year.

[Alyono]

whole convective pattern looks strange. Looks like quite a bit of feedback as any convective cluster seems to be triggering new vorticity

Not giving this run much weight. This looks like GFS convective feedback issues

[supercane4867]

GFS is messing up like it always do. It develops a new low coming off the coast of Panama and the two center just spinning around each other.

[1900hurricane]

The developing center looks about 11.2ºN, 81.1ºW or so to me in the NOAA-18 pass from 0020Z.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

consensus

[Alyono]

not sure what it will take to get some to understand that the GFS is no more reliable than the NAVGEM. This run is total garbage with 2 well defined centers rotating around each other underneath a well defined upper ridge with very little shear

[Alyono]

there may be a fundamental flaw in the GFS. It has this not intensifying while over the water, then intensifying after it moves 200 miles inland

[Aric Dunn]

not sure what it will take to get some to understand that the GFS is no more reliable than the NAVGEM. This run is total garbage with 2 well defined centers rotating around each other underneath a well defined upper ridge with very little shear

agreed... and in the NW Carrib with SST's and heat content maxed out..

[LarryWx]

The 0Z CMC is stronger than its 12Z run and a good bit stronger than the 0Z GFS as it landfalls in Mobile. But it is the CMC.

**Corrected**

[CrazyC83]

there may be a fundamental flaw in the GFS. It has this not intensifying while over the water, then intensifying after it moves 200 miles inland

That looks like a system that isn't even tropical. In early October in the Caribbean Sea, that is unrealistic. No way does it become extratropical that far south.

[Alyono]

UKMET much stronger


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 04.10.2017

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 14.0N 83.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2017 36 14.7N 83.3W 1002 27
0000UTC 06.10.2017 48 17.0N 84.9W 999 31
1200UTC 06.10.2017 60 18.7N 86.5W 995 34
0000UTC 07.10.2017 72 20.6N 87.9W 993 32
1200UTC 07.10.2017 84 22.8N 89.1W 993 38
0000UTC 08.10.2017 96 25.6N 89.0W 991 43
1200UTC 08.10.2017 108 29.0N 87.4W 985 54
0000UTC 09.10.2017 120 31.7N 85.1W 984 33
1200UTC 09.10.2017 132 33.2N 83.0W 993 32
0000UTC 10.10.2017 144 33.6N 82.2W 1000 20

[LarryWx]

UKMET much stronger


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 04.10.2017

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 14.0N 83.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2017 36 14.7N 83.3W 1002 27
0000UTC 06.10.2017 48 17.0N 84.9W 999 31
1200UTC 06.10.2017 60 18.7N 86.5W 995 34
0000UTC 07.10.2017 72 20.6N 87.9W 993 32
1200UTC 07.10.2017 84 22.8N 89.1W 993 38
0000UTC 08.10.2017 96 25.6N 89.0W 991 43
1200UTC 08.10.2017 108 29.0N 87.4W 985 54
0000UTC 09.10.2017 120 31.7N 85.1W 984 33
1200UTC 09.10.2017 132 33.2N 83.0W 993 32
0000UTC 10.10.2017 144 33.6N 82.2W 1000 20

Based on the 985 mb, that would be a cat 1 H moving NNE into the FL Panhandle and then still a formidable storm as it moves NE through far SE AL and then into SW GA.

[hurricanehunter69]

I think we've all been concerned about a potential beast in the NW Caribbean. Especially in a season like this year. I have to believe this one has a shot. Although, with the fall cold front nowhere in sight....we may actually have a second shot in 7 to 10 days. As for 90L it's intensity potential seems to be depending on land interaction.....? 90L looks very healthy and the structure looks to be coming together very well to me. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html