ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[dhweather]

How did I find my elevation above sea level for my home?

The storm surge from Katrina was 18-20 feet in Jackson County. That was with a mature category 5 Katrina slowly moving in, with a lengthy run of winds building and trapping water. I highly doubt you see even HALF of that for storm surge with Nate.

Nate is not Katrina, not even close. With the forward speed so fast from the Yucatan to landfall, I cannot see Nate becoming a major hurricane. We have to see what is even left of Nate tomorrow.

I really wouldn't worry too much. Just stay tuned.

[bevgo]

Not too concerned about surge. Katrina put 2 feet in my home according to some and 8ft according to others. Just curious because if Katrina put 2 feet then I am about 18 ft. Every where I try to look it up I get 38 ft. I doubt I am that high but.....sure would be nice.

[SunnyThoughts]

AF recon headed in. They must think center is close to being off coast, or close anyway.

[Big Easy Breeze]

Mobile here. We are supposed to travel to Birmingham Friday and return Sat night. I keep seeing models and talk shift west to Louisiana. Would you go or do you think a shift back east is possible?

Yes, always possible.

As for shear, step through the frames to see how it's changing. If the ULL moves west fast enough Nate gets less shear, otherwise a weak and sheared TS seems most likely IMO.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

Their will be quite a bit of moist air from the ULL and available to fuel Nate. But the real question will be; shear. How fast the ULL moves and gets out of the area will be the key player to intensification.

[bella_may]

According to Jim Cantore, the swirl beside Florida is going to help moisten the gulf for Nate

[slamdaddy]

Not too concerned about surge. Katrina put 2 feet in my home according to some and 8ft according to others. Just curious because if Katrina put 2 feet then I am about 18 ft. Every where I try to look it up I get 38 ft. I doubt I am that high but.....sure would be nice.

I am in Gautier (Hickory Hills) and 18ft.

[GCANE]

A small shift in the forecast track will take this right over the Loop Current.

[CrazyC83]

A small shift in the forecast track will take this right over the Loop Current.

http://i68.tinypic.com/25s0d20.gif

The difference is so enormous there - from 20 to 160 in a short space...that makes the intensity forecast problematic, since if it goes over the LC it could intensify with even 25 kt of shear I would think.

[SunnyThoughts]

18z Hwrf

[bella_may]

A hair sw and a bit stronger

[Emmett_Brown]

Nate looking ragged on satellite at the moment, Recon will be interesting... it almost looks like the center is trying to jump over to the convection to the east, but could just be my eyes playing tricks on me... recon will give us the answer soon

[bella_may]

Nate looking ragged on satellite at the moment, Recon will be interesting... it almost looks like the center is trying to jump over to the convection to the east, but could just be my eyes playing tricks on me... recon will give us the answer soon

Looks like a tiny little dot about to come off the northern coast of Nicaragua. I'm guessing that's the "center"

[wxman57]

I'm wondering if Nate lost its circulation over Honduras. I'm not seeing anything on satellite loops. Definitely NOT a TS now. Might not survive the shear it's moving right into.

[SunnyThoughts]

Recon headed that way, guess we will see what they find shortly.

[slamdaddy]

I'm wondering if Nate lost its circulation over Honduras. I'm not seeing anything on satellite loops. Definitely NOT a TS now. Might not survive the shear it's moving right into.

The official forecast has it developing/re-developing into a TS shortly after getting back over water.

[CrazyC83]

I'm wondering if Nate lost its circulation over Honduras. I'm not seeing anything on satellite loops. Definitely NOT a TS now. Might not survive the shear it's moving right into.

If this dissipates (for now), it would likely take at least 24 hours to get an inner core rebuilt?

[Frank P]

Well the convection looks to be firing back up with Nate tonight on the IR sat loops

[TheStormExpert]

Fortunately it seems the future for Nate is looking grim at the moment. Looks like crap right now to say the least, most certainly not a TS and probably not even a TC now.

[TheStormExpert]

Latest Video Discussion from Tropical Tidbit's Levi Cowan.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/916099475021750272

[PTPatrick]

Holy crap that HWRF signs THe is a tiny storm. If it hit plaquemines the hurricane force winds would barely cover The county. Compared to Katrina where they went clear thru mobile. Crazy...just hope it doesn’t wind up quick like small ones can.