ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Last time there was nothing active in the Atlantic was the morning of August 23, when Harvey was about to reform.

One thing is for sure - once gone, that is it for Maria for good. The awaits her, just like Harvey and Irma. Won't be seeing you in 2023, Maria!

[1900hurricane]

Looks like one more best track point to close out September.

AL, 15, 2017093018, , BEST, 0, 414N, 455W, 45, 991, TS, 34, NEQ, 110, 200, 200, 150, 1006, 150, 90, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MARIA, D, 12, NEQ, 240, 300, 420, 300, genesis-num, 028,

[CrazyC83]

Looks like one more best track point to close out September.

AL, 15, 2017093018, , BEST, 0, 414N, 455W, 45, 991, TS, 34, NEQ, 110, 200, 200, 150, 1006, 150, 90, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MARIA, D, 12, NEQ, 240, 300, 420, 300, genesis-num, 028,

We'll see if they keep it alive at 5 pm. If so, we have gone through the entire month with continuous activity.

[CrazyC83]

TXNT29 KNES 301810
TCSNTL

A. 15L (MARIA)

B. 30/1745Z

C. 41.5N

D. 45.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/3.0/W1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
NEAR A SMALL AREA OF COLD OVERCAST. THIS CONFERS A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT
ARE BOTH 1.5. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS OF NO MORE THAN 1.0 IN 6 HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GAETANO

Still tropical per Dvorak. No evidence of frontal boundaries either from what I can tell, so it is a matter of maintaining deep convection.

[artist]

From stormcarib.com re: Vieques

Date: Sat, 30 Sep 2017 14:56:46 -0400
From Valerie Mc Dyer
Sent from my iPhone

Vieques was hit badly. On Tuesday night 18th the winds were whipping around by
6 pm so we moved down to our more sheltered bottom floor. We got one dog in but
the other one would not budge.
Sleep was fitful, we could hear objects crashing all around the house. At 4am
we ran to the bathroom and hunkered down intil 9am, when the winds died a
little
The eye crossed Vieques at Green Beach, on the western end. Winds of 168mph
were recorded.
There were trees down everywhere. Power lines were torn down and transformers
littered the roads. We had no water, power, cell signal, money as the bank was
closed, and ferries and planes had stopped running, so Vieques was literally
cut off from the world. Many wooden homes were destroyed and their contents
spread all around.
Next day we ventured out to Esperanza on the south shore and the destruction
there was shocking! The sea rose so high as to completely cover the road with a
layer of sand, and all of the businesses along the road had sustained serious
damage.

More to come.

Val Mc Dyer from Vieques

.

[CrazyC83]

FINALLY, after 37 1/2 days, we get a break.

Good riddance, Maria!!!

[CrazyC83]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

This is NOT an official BT, but here is what I would have for Maria. It may be adjusted more once additional surface data comes in.

(Updated to November 22 based on new data)

AL152017, MARIA, 63,
20170916, 0000, , TD, 11.6N, 45.8W, 30, 1011,
20170916, 0600, , TS, 12.0N, 47.6W, 35, 1009,
20170916, 1200, , TS, 12.2N, 49.7W, 40, 1006,
20170916, 1800, , TS, 12.3N, 51.7W, 45, 1003,
20170917, 0000, , TS, 12.5N, 53.1W, 50, 999,
20170917, 0600, , TS, 12.8N, 54.3W, 55, 995,
20170917, 1200, , TS, 13.3N, 55.7W, 60, 991,
20170917, 1800, , HU, 13.6N, 57.0W, 70, 985,
20170918, 0000, , HU, 14.0N, 58.0W, 80, 979,
20170918, 0600, , HU, 14.3N, 59.0W, 90, 973,
20170918, 1200, , HU, 14.5N, 59.7W, 105, 966,
20170918, 1800, , HU, 14.9N, 60.4W, 120, 948,
20170919, 0000, , HU, 15.3N, 61.1W, 145, 926,
20170919, 0115, L, HU, 15.4N, 61.3W, 150, 922, Landfall - Rosalie, Dominica
20170919, 0400, T, HU, 15.6N, 61.5W, 130, 942,
20170919, 0600, , HU, 15.8N, 61.9W, 135, 938,
20170919, 1200, , HU, 16.1N, 62.7W, 140, 932,
20170919, 1800, , HU, 16.6N, 63.6W, 145, 918,
20170920, 0000, , HU, 17.0N, 64.3W, 155, 906, Maximum wind and minimum pressure
20170920, 0600, , HU, 17.6N, 65.1W, 140, 914,
20170920, 1010, L, HU, 18.0N, 65.8W, 130, 923, Landfall - Yabucoa, Puerto Rico
20170920, 1200, , HU, 18.2N, 66.1W, 105, 939,
20170920, 1800, , HU, 18.6N, 67.0W, 90, 960,
20170921, 0000, , HU, 18.9N, 67.6W, 90, 957,
20170921, 0600, , HU, 19.4N, 68.1W, 95, 958,
20170921, 1200, , HU, 19.9N, 68.8W, 100, 958,
20170921, 1800, , HU, 20.5N, 69.5W, 110, 956,
20170922, 0000, , HU, 20.8N, 70.0W, 115, 952,
20170922, 0600, , HU, 21.2N, 70.5W, 110, 957,
20170922, 1200, , HU, 21.9N, 70.9W, 110, 958,
20170922, 1800, , HU, 22.8N, 71.2W, 105, 958,
20170923, 0000, , HU, 23.7N, 71.6W, 100, 954,
20170923, 0600, , HU, 24.4N, 71.9W, 95, 954,
20170923, 1200, , HU, 25.0N, 72.2W, 90, 953,
20170923, 1800, , HU, 25.9N, 72.4W, 90, 948,
20170924, 0000, , HU, 26.6N, 72.5W, 90, 942,
20170924, 0600, , HU, 27.5N, 72.6W, 85, 944,
20170924, 1200, , HU, 28.4N, 72.8W, 85, 946,
20170924, 1800, , HU, 29.1N, 73.0W, 85, 941,
20170925, 0000, , HU, 29.7N, 72.9W, 80, 946,
20170925, 0600, , HU, 30.3N, 73.0W, 75, 955,
20170925, 1200, , HU, 30.8N, 73.0W, 70, 959,
20170925, 1800, , HU, 31.4N, 73.1W, 70, 963,
20170926, 0000, , HU, 32.0N, 73.1W, 65, 967,
20170926, 0600, , HU, 32.6N, 73.1W, 65, 970,
20170926, 1200, , HU, 33.2N, 73.1W, 65, 970,
20170926, 1800, , HU, 33.9N, 73.0W, 65, 972,
20170927, 0000, , HU, 34.4N, 72.9W, 65, 974,
20170927, 0600, , HU, 35.9N, 72.9W, 65, 975,
20170927, 1200, , HU, 35.4N, 72.8W, 65, 976,
20170927, 1800, , HU, 36.0N, 72.6W, 65, 977,
20170928, 0000, , HU, 36.5N, 72.2W, 65, 978,
20170928, 0600, , HU, 36.7N, 71.3W, 70, 975,
20170928, 1200, , HU, 36.8N, 70.0W, 70, 974,
20170928, 1800, , HU, 36.8N, 68.6W, 65, 977,
20170929, 0000, , TS, 36.9N, 66.8W, 60, 980,
20170929, 0600, , TS, 37.0N, 64.7W, 60, 982,
20170929, 1200, , TS, 37.2N, 61.7W, 55, 985,
20170929, 1800, , TS, 37.4N, 59.0W, 55, 986,
20170930, 0000, , TS, 37.9N, 55.6W, 55, 986,
20170930, 0600, , TS, 38.9N, 52.2W, 55, 987,
20170930, 1200, , TS, 40.0N, 48.6W, 55, 987,
20170930, 1800, , EX, 41.5N, 44.4W, 50, 992,

A few notes:

* Both landfall intensities are revised - Dominica upwards to 150 kt (Recon supported 145 a couple hours before landfall, then the RFQ went ashore while the pressure kept falling), while Puerto Rico is dropped a bit to 130 kt pending additional data.
* A lot of changes are made in the middle portion; more fluctuations are added.
* The peak intensity is adjusted (based on 152 kt SFMR and a bit more strengthening after that), with the lowest pressure between Recon passes when it appears the storm peaked.

[1900hurricane]

I'm not real confident NHC will bump up to 155 kt, but it is possible. Maria ran almost dead on the KZC wind/pressure relationship, which outputs 156 kt for 908 mb with the other input data. Highest SFMR was only 152 kt, but the wind profile of the one crazy dropsonde may be what helps bump it up if the NHC makes that decision.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah I was looking at those data to make my thinking of a peak intensity of 155 kt.

The 906 mb pressure is an extrapolation between the 2300Z reading of 909 after rapid deepening was still underway and the 0400Z reading of 908 (at which point the ERC appeared to be underway and significant filling occurred in the following fix). I probably should have placed it at around 0200Z, but placed it at synoptic time to make it clearer. The landfall pressure is a bit uncertain; I went with 920 mb based on a bit more filling after the 917 fix, as well as Josh Morgerman's reading of 929 just outside the eye with violent winds still ongoing.

[Rincoin]

Update from rincon. Hope u r well gusty and cyclone. We took some larger winds than expected on this side because of the wobble west that happened at the wrong time. Still obviously are without power, water etc. Gasoline is a big challenge. It will be a long road back but we are all helping each other through it and Puerto Rico will be back stronger than ever. Lots of destruction with Maria but we are safe and we were lucky ones that had roof stay on our wood house. Many areas of Puerto Rico need pressing help still up in the mountains. Communications huge challenge. May be able to get more out as comms come up.

[tolakram]

Update from rincon. Hope u r well gusty and cyclone. We took some larger winds than expected on this side because of the wobble west that happened at the wrong time. Still obviously are without power, water etc. Gasoline is a big challenge. It will be a long road back but we are all helping each other through it and Puerto Rico will be back stronger than ever. Lots of destruction with Maria but we are safe and we were lucky ones that had roof stay on our wood house. Many areas of Puerto Rico need pressing help still up in the mountains. Communications huge challenge. May be able to get more out as comms come up.

Thanks for checking in. We have not heard from Luis yet, hoping it's just a communication issue.

[Gustywind]

Update from rincon. Hope u r well gusty and cyclone. We took some larger winds than expected on this side because of the wobble west that happened at the wrong time. Still obviously are without power, water etc. Gasoline is a big challenge. It will be a long road back but we are all helping each other through it and Puerto Rico will be back stronger than ever. Lots of destruction with Maria but we are safe and we were lucky ones that had roof stay on our wood house. Many areas of Puerto Rico need pressing help still up in the mountains. Communications huge challenge. May be able to get more out as comms come up.

Thanks for checking in. We have not heard from Luis yet, hoping it's just a communication issue.

Hope we will see him one day because of i cannot imagine that he will not be on the board after already 2weeks...

[msbee]

Update from rincon. Hope u r well gusty and cyclone. We took some larger winds than expected on this side because of the wobble west that happened at the wrong time. Still obviously are without power, water etc. Gasoline is a big challenge. It will be a long road back but we are all helping each other through it and Puerto Rico will be back stronger than ever. Lots of destruction with Maria but we are safe and we were lucky ones that had roof stay on our wood house. Many areas of Puerto Rico need pressing help still up in the mountains. Communications huge challenge. May be able to get more out as comms cit was exteremyl difficut to comunicate her eon SSt Maartne for at least 3 wweeks.ome up.

Thanks for checking in. We have not heard from Luis yet, hoping it's just a communication issue.

Hope we will see him one day because of i cannot imagine that he will not be on the board after already 2weeks...

Looking out to hear from Luis too. I hope it is just communication problems. I know after Irma, it was about 3 weeks before we could communicate well here on St Maarten.

[sweetpea]

I heard from my dad for the second time today, he is in Salinas (Coqui) PR. He had to drive to San Juan with my cousin to get money out of the bank. He had nothing left, he was also able to get cell service by driving out there. He said PR is in really bad shape. There is still quite a bit of family we haven't heard from. My husband and I are headed down there in 3 weeks, I got my tickets today. This is so heartbreaking seeing and hearing what is happening on the island. I hope everyone has checked in. Hopefully Luis will check in soon, I don't know where in San Juan he lived but I do know from what I have heard from family that PR is a disaster.

[tolakram]

I heard from my dad for the second time today, he is in Salinas (Coqui) PR. He had to drive to San Juan with my cousin to get money out of the bank. He had nothing left, he was also able to get cell service by driving out there. He said PR is in really bad shape. There is still quite a bit of family we haven't heard from. My husband and I are headed down there in 3 weeks, I got my tickets today. This is so heartbreaking seeing and hearing what is happening on the island. I hope everyone has checked in. Hopefully Luis will check in soon, I don't know where in San Juan he lived but I do know from what I have heard from family that PR is a disaster.

Thanks for the update, I hope your trip goes well and your dad can put things back together.

[CrazyC83]

Reading the NWS San Juan initial report, there is very little data from the island to confirm or deny intensities. The best data we probably have is the 929 mb pressure recorded from Josh Morgerman outside the eye, which I used to come up with the 920 mb landfall estimate. There is no reliable wind data at all; 130 kt is my best guess.

[mrbagyo]

Reading the NWS San Juan initial report, there is very little data from the island to confirm or deny intensities. The best data we probably have is the 929 mb pressure recorded from Josh Morgerman outside the eye, which I used to come up with the 920 mb landfall estimate. There is no reliable wind data at all; 130 kt is my best guess.

I think the lowest pressure recorded in Maria at landfall was the one taken by Simon Brewer inside the eye - 926.6 mb.

 https://twitter.com/SimonStormRider/status/911329219120189440

[artist]

Has anyone yet been able to get any news about cycloneye yet, and others that still have not checked in?

My continued prayers for all.

[Hurricaneman]

Has anyone yet been able to get any news about cycloneye yet, and others that still have not checked in?

My continued prayers for all.

Looks like the infrastructure was completely damaged so we may not hear from him until after the new year at the earliest, it’s so tense wondering what’s going on

[galaxy401]

The disturbing part with Maria is that one month later, we still don't have a grasp of the true death toll and damage in both Puerto Rico and Dominica. Offical death toll is over 50 in Puerto Rico but there are unconfirmed reports of it being in the hundreds. Not just Puerto Rico but Dominica too.