WPAC: INVEST 94W

[doomhaMwx]

94W INVEST 171129 0000 4.0N 156.0E WPAC 15 NA

[1900hurricane]

JTWC must be really bored.

[euro6208]

94W INVEST 171129 1200 4.3N 155.2E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

JTWC must be really bored.

Mmm according to GFS, this is one of the twins it develops down the road and impacting the Philippines. Let's see.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Not really into the recurve very far away from the Philippines. There's an STR to the north and 94W is very close to the equator. Also to note, the GFS has had a significant poleward (east) bias for the past few years. We shall wait and see.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

A little too close to comfort

[1900hurricane]

Some equatorial westerlies are helping to sharpen the near-equatorial monsoon trough. There are worse setups, but 94W has a very long way to go if it wants to do something. Gotta start somewhere I suppose.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Its worth following the ens trends at this range.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ECMWF showing a TS already. They're still showing the recurve taking place albeit much further west over the Philippine landmass. (Bicol, Samar and Leyte)

[doomhaMwx]

GFS and ECMWF models only develops this into a TC near 140E or after it moves past that longitude.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Have not checked all 51 ens members but the first is 971mb TY on approach and rakes along the shores.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I see an evident northerly bias from the GFS. It is affecting their entire forecast for the system's path and how the STR would affect 94W. GFS has 94W at around 5°N, 157.5°E at around this time in 06z run, but its actual location is a full degree of latitude further south. Since it is at 4.0°N, 155.6°E as of now, expect the 12z run to possibly change significantly.

[euro6208]

94W INVEST 171130 1200 5.0N 156.6E WPAC 15 1008

[euro6208]

This has great model support from the globals.

EURO has a weak TS making landfall over Visayas and GFS peaks it at 928 mb missing the P.I. Yap may not be so lucky.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has a strong Typhoon making landfall in Mindanao.Let's see what ECMWF has.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Big shift again. Landfall over Samar. Recurve occurring but much further southwest by a couple hundred miles.

[cycloneye]

xtyphooncyclonex I will make a new post about 94W on FB after ECMWF is out.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

xtyphooncyclonex I will make a new post about 94W on FB after ECMWF is out.

Nice. However, I'm getting a little worried after seeing big shifts south just like Bopha, Irma and Hagupit. I'm off to bed, have school tomorrow....

I wonder what 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS have

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF does not develop.