Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Portastorm]

Joe Bastardi has been tweeting a lot this morning about the cold pattern setting up for Christmas and how, in his opinion, the main thrust of it will be in the Plains. Whether that means it'll sink to the Southern Plains and Texas, I don't know.

But I am a little disappointed that it hasn't snowed here in Austin since Thursday night.

[wxman57]

Joe Bastardi has been tweeting a lot this morning about the cold pattern setting up for Christmas and how, in his opinion, the main thrust of it will be in the Plains. Whether that means it'll sink to the Southern Plains and Texas, I don't know.

But I am a little disappointed that it hasn't snowed here in Austin since Thursday night.

Yes, it's rough going nearly 3 days without significant snow, Portastorm. You might have to go a bit longer, as next time it's the DFW area's turn.

[Cerlin]

Latest GFS run seems to have more frequent warmer torchy air, with quite a few 70s, but it seems like the 6z agreeing with the cold coming down at some point during Christmas Week.

[Portastorm]

That is one helluva ice storm for North Texas around Christmas Day on the 12z GFS. The 0z showed something similar. Will be interesting to see how this one develops.

[orangeblood]

That is one helluva ice storm for North Texas around Christmas Day on the 12z GFS. The 0z showed something similar. Will be interesting to see how this one develops.

Yep, GFS has been very consistent for the Christmas week pattern change...from its Ensembles to now the Operational. The McFarland Signature is in full effect on the 12Z run, that ice storm would cripple the entire state for Christmas . The one thing that gives me pause is the Euro ENS went towards the early December Pattern of core of the cold heading east on its 0Z run last night, +++PNA...hopefully, it trends towards the GFS and Canadian on the 12Z run

[aggiecutter]

That is one helluva ice storm for North Texas around Christmas Day on the 12z GFS. The 0z showed something similar. Will be interesting to see how this one develops.

If the DFW metroplex experiences the ice storm that NE Texas experienced Christmas of 2000, there would be catastrophic damage to the power grid. It would take months to repair. Yes, December of 2000 was a La-Nina.

[bubba hotep]

Just shift it east a bit and I'm all in! lol

[Brent]

Joe Bastardi has been tweeting a lot this morning about the cold pattern setting up for Christmas and how, in his opinion, the main thrust of it will be in the Plains. Whether that means it'll sink to the Southern Plains and Texas, I don't know.

But I am a little disappointed that it hasn't snowed here in Austin since Thursday night.

Yes, it's rough going nearly 3 days without significant snow, Portastorm. You might have to go a bit longer, as next time it's the DFW area's turn.

Promise?

Dang the end of the GFS has ice all the way to the coast

[wxman57]

Just shift it east a bit and I'm all in! lol
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/mo ... .us_sc.png

Careful with those snow graphics. I'm not sure what pivotalweather is doing to make them, but it looks like their snow algorithm is based solely on surface temperatures and not on the actual vertical temperature profile. Take a look at the associated Skew-T diagrams for that precip period. There is quite a warm nose just above the surface. The sub-freezing air is only very near the surface, indicating freezing rain and not snow. The charts on Tropical Tidbits (same GFS data) are more realistic, indicating freezing rain and no snow accumulations. Of course, we're looking 2 weeks out, so nothing is certain.

[starsfan65]

Just shift it east a bit and I'm all in! lol
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/mo ... .us_sc.png

Careful with those snow graphics. I'm not sure what pivotalweather is doing to make them, but it looks like their snow algorithm is based solely on surface temperatures and not on the actual vertical temperature profile. Take a look at the associated Skew-T diagrams for that precip period. There is quite a warm nose just above the surface. The sub-freezing air is only very near the surface, indicating freezing rain and not snow. The charts on Tropical Tidbits (same GFS data) are more realistic, indicating freezing rain and no snow accumulations. Of course, we're looking 2 weeks out, so nothing is certain.

There is time for the upper air to get colder.

[Brent]

yeah I think its an ice storm in DFW too but it is 2 weeks out. Who knows what the actual storm will be

[bubba hotep]

Just shift it east a bit and I'm all in! lol
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/mo ... .us_sc.png

Careful with those snow graphics. I'm not sure what pivotalweather is doing to make them, but it looks like their snow algorithm is based solely on surface temperatures and not on the actual vertical temperature profile. Take a look at the associated Skew-T diagrams for that precip period. There is quite a warm nose just above the surface. The sub-freezing air is only very near the surface, indicating freezing rain and not snow. The charts on Tropical Tidbits (same GFS data) are more realistic, indicating freezing rain and no snow accumulations. Of course, we're looking 2 weeks out, so nothing is certain.

Yea, I was just having some fun with that post, we need a sarcasm font. The 850s are torching at DFW during the "event"

[gboudx]

You wanna see snow? The Colts and Bills are playing in a blizzard at Orchard Park in Buffalo. Lake Effect snow in full effect.

[TheProfessor]

I know you North Texans want winter weather, but I don't want an ice storm when I go back home. I'm already having enough problems walking on my dry snow lol.

[somethingfunny]

I haven't even begun my Christmas shopping yet and apparently it's within range of the 384hr Geefus already

[Portastorm]

You wanna see snow? The Colts and Bills are playing in a blizzard at Orchard Park in Buffalo. Lake Effect snow in full effect.

Ah, football weather ... the way God intended it to be ...

[bubba hotep]

Given that sag back towards the SW, there are probably going to be some really cold individual members. Teens wouldn't be out of the question for DFW with that look.

[Brent]

I just dont want record highs and/or severe weather on Christmas again anything else would be acceptable

A storm would just be a bonus but please not the warm side

[bubba hotep]

Given that sag back towards the SW, there are probably going to be some really cold individual members. Teens wouldn't be out of the question for DFW with that look.

The EPS, which has been running warm for cold spells this winter, has DFW at 48/34 for Christmas Eve

ETA: Control run looks to have a sub freezing high at DFW for Christmas day and there are individual members with sub 15 lows. It also shows 15 members with frozen precip at DFW in and around Christmas.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Joe Bastardi has been tweeting a lot this morning about the cold pattern setting up for Christmas and how, in his opinion, the main thrust of it will be in the Plains. Whether that means it'll sink to the Southern Plains and Texas, I don't know.

But I am a little disappointed that it hasn't snowed here in Austin since Thursday night.

Yes, it's rough going nearly 3 days without significant snow, Portastorm. You might have to go a bit longer, as next time it's the DFW area's turn.

Don’t forget about us up along the red river!