Texas Winter 2017-2018

[stormlover2013]

glad u said that about the wrf and ARW2 i'll look at those next week

[wxman57]

I went back to the 12Z runs last Thursday for 5 models. Some models did better than others in some areas. No model had it exactly right, even 12 hours out. The WRF-ARW2 did well for the coast, but had virtually no snow for SAT/AUS. The two NAM models had the snow max in Louisiana too far west, and they were too dry for SE TX.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro has a low of 67 in Houston Saturday, the 23rd. GFS has a low of 42 at the same time. I predict one or both will be wrong.

[stormlover2013]

lol, i would favor euro right now!!

[Brent]

TWC's app today has rain/snow the day after Christmas

I think its basically copying the GFS although temps are more towards climo than the GFS

[wxman57]

TWC's app today has rain/snow the day after Christmas

I think its basically copying the GFS although temps are more towards climo than the GFS

Yeah, it's pointless to make any forecasts from the models this far out. Check back around next Wed-Thu. Perhaps there will be at least some model agreement on Christmas weekend by then. Until then, enjoy the ride!

[Brent]

18z GFS looks like its gonna be FASTER bringing down the cold next week

almost inside 200 hours now

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Lordy, look at our Hawaiian feature

[Brent]

daytime temperatures in the 30s in DFW next Friday on the GFS

Euro pushing 80 on the 12z but had some cold at 0z

GFS has some wintry precip in South Central TX at 228 snowing just north of Houston

[Brent]

[Ralph's Weather]

The GFS has flipped the PNA over the past couple runs. This run is bringing back the --EPO though. Other operational global models are all over the place. Ensembles seem to average things out and have Plains centered trough. The best thing about the recent GFS runs is they do not set up a major ice storm, instead they would be more like the event last week though with much colder surface temps.

[Brent]

30s for highs at best pretty much everywhere on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day

[Ralph's Weather]

30s for highs pretty much everywhere on Christmas Eve

And reality will likely be significantly colder with a --EPO producing a 1050+mb surface high.

[Brent]

light snow northern half of Texas Christmas Night on the GFS

massive ice storm on the east coast

[ThunderSleetDreams]

16 straight runs and 17/19

[wxman22]

GFS has an ugly ice storm for Southeast Texas on Christmas Day fwiw

[Brent]

yup the east coast ice storm starts in coastal Texas and Houston Christmas Eve into Christmas Day

Houston gets frozen precip like 4 times in 3-4 days around Christmas this run

[ThunderSleetDreams]

All I want for Christmas is 4 hours of heavy thunder sleet followed by a topping of 2 inches of snow.

That and Verlander granting me a night with Kate Upton.

[starsfan65]

light snow northern half of Texas Christmas Night on the GFS

massive ice storm on the east coast

I like snow better than ice!!

[wxman57]

All I want for Christmas is 4 hours of heavy thunder sleet followed by a topping of 2 inches of snow.

That and Verlander granting me a night with Kate Upton.

I'll see what I can do about the sleet. You're on your own for the other. That's quite an 18Z GFS run for SE TX. Major freezing rain event (not snow) on Christmas Eve. If that actually happened, we'd be without power for weeks across Houston and much of Texas.