Texas Winter 2017-2018

[ThunderSleetDreams]

how big of a change?

Much colder/faster and centered on us.

[wxman57]

Euro has a trough digging over the Rockies at 168, really close to the GFS pattern

at 192 cold flooding into Texas...

DFW in the 70s Thursday and near freezing Friday morning

The coldest the Euro has for the DFW area is 31-35 degrees Christmas weekend. No precip across Texas at all. No temperature below 40 in Houston. Might as well tune out the models for another 6-7 days.

Euro almost in through 240 hrs now. It does have a secondary surge of Arctic air reaching the TX Panhandle the afternoon of the 23rd.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Euro has a trough digging over the Rockies at 168, really close to the GFS pattern

at 192 cold flooding into Texas...

DFW in the 70s Thursday and near freezing Friday morning

The coldest the Euro has for the DFW area is 31-35 degrees Christmas weekend. No precip across Texas at all. No temperature below 40 in Houston. Might as well tune out the models for another 6-7 days.

This.

Today the Euro has the perfect pattern for us, and the GFS is pushing back the max strength of -EPO till 384 hours.

Im 80/20 that something very impressive will come down from the Arctic, possibly on a historic level like 2011, but not getting too excited yet.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Euro has a trough digging over the Rockies at 168, really close to the GFS pattern

at 192 cold flooding into Texas...

DFW in the 70s Thursday and near freezing Friday morning

The coldest the Euro has for the DFW area is 31-35 degrees Christmas weekend. No precip across Texas at all. No temperature below 40 in Houston. Might as well tune out the models for another 6-7 days.

The run ends at 12z 12/24... with the coldest anomalies entering Texas. Still a slow bleed with the coldest of air, but my guess with that upper air pattern is we will see some pinks during Oz tonight.

[South Texas Storms]

End of the Euro run looks like a winter storm is about to begin across the northern half of Texas around Christmas. Very cold air spilling southward across north Texas with a trough dropping into the Four Corners region.

[wxman57]

This.

Today the Euro has the perfect pattern for us, and the GFS is pushing back the max strength of -EPO till 384 hours.

Im 80/20 that something very impressive will come down from the Arctic, possibly on a historic level like 2011, but not getting too excited yet.

2011 doesn't register for me as being that cold. When I think of cold, I think 1983 and 1989.

[ronyan]

What about Feb 1899?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

This.

Today the Euro has the perfect pattern for us, and the GFS is pushing back the max strength of -EPO till 384 hours.

Im 80/20 that something very impressive will come down from the Arctic, possibly on a historic level like 2011, but not getting too excited yet.

2011 doesn't register for me as being that cold. When I think of cold, I think 1983 and 1989.

February of 2011 was damn cold.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: What about Feb 1899?

I was too young, then.

[South Texas Storms]

Snowing in Dallas at the end of the 12z Euro run. Freeze line advancing southward with precip continuing across much of the state.

[stormlover2013]

now if the euro is on board then I am slowly getting on board lol

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This.

Today the Euro has the perfect pattern for us, and the GFS is pushing back the max strength of -EPO till 384 hours.

Im 80/20 that something very impressive will come down from the Arctic, possibly on a historic level like 2011, but not getting too excited yet.

2011 doesn't register for me as being that cold. When I think of cold, I think 1983 and 1989.

It was the most historical cold that was locked in for a long time, but highs in the 20's in SE Tx is pretty darn cold lol. Obviously '83 and '89 are THE cold spells above all. Trying to temper my expectations

Edit: Also, dont sleep on the 12/1962 analog popping up. That is right up there with SEVERE cold for the US.

[Ralph's Weather]

This.

Today the Euro has the perfect pattern for us, and the GFS is pushing back the max strength of -EPO till 384 hours.

Im 80/20 that something very impressive will come down from the Arctic, possibly on a historic level like 2011, but not getting too excited yet.

2011 doesn't register for me as being that cold. When I think of cold, I think 1983 and 1989.

Here are the first 10 days of February 2011 for Dallas.

500mb CONUS chart for 2/2/2011

[wxman57]

Air across Texas is still not very cold at 240hrs on the 12Z Euro run. It does have snow starting between Abilene and the DFW area on Christmas Eve morning. 3" in Abilene between midnight and 6am. Secondary surge can be seen in the Panhandle in the image below. Keep in mind that you'd have to add about 20F to the projected temperature in Abilene to bring that air down to sea level near Houston (= mid to upper 30s here). Also keep in mind that the Euro is likely too warm. It did poorly with last week's snow event temperature-wise, even within 48 hrs.

I was fairly confident in the snow forecast several days before last week's event, and I certainly made that clear here. That said, the Euro does have a deep 500mb trof/upper low over the 4-corners area at 240 hrs. With a cold front across the NW Gulf, such a pattern would result in the development of another West Gulf Low, which is always a precursor (not a guarantee of) of southeast Texas snow (or very cold rain). However, with next weekend's event I wouldn't count on anything this far out. I'll just look at each new model run and chuckle a bit until next Thursday.

[wxman57]

Here are the first 10 days of February 2011 for Dallas.
http://i66.tinypic.com/eq18qb.jpg

Ha! That doesn't look cold, to me. When I think of cold (1983, 1989) I think of single-digit temps in Houston with the high <32F for 5 straight days. Highs here only in the mid 20s. That's cold! And I love it cold, by the way.

[Brent]

Here are the first 10 days of February 2011 for Dallas.
http://i66.tinypic.com/eq18qb.jpg

Ha! That doesn't look cold, to me. When I think of cold (1983, 1989) I think of single-digit temps in Houston with the high <32F for 5 straight days. Highs here only in the mid 20s. That's cold! And I love it cold, by the way.

Have you been hacked?

[Tireman4]

Here are the first 10 days of February 2011 for Dallas.
http://i66.tinypic.com/eq18qb.jpg

Ha! That doesn't look cold, to me. When I think of cold (1983, 1989) I think of single-digit temps in Houston with the high <32F for 5 straight days. Highs here only in the mid 20s. That's cold! And I love it cold, by the way.

Oh now wait a minute ....you might fool the newbies, but for we old timers....humm

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z Euro is a beautiful set up assuming that low digs SW a bit more then ejects over Texas injecting some deeper cold and bringing precip with it.

[bubba hotep]

I am a bit suspicious of that amp. The bias corrected and Euro EPS aren't nearly as enthusiastic.

Still think the GFS is fumbling the MJO and that is resulting in issues with how it's handling the upcoming pattern. Not surprised to see it trend warmer as the mean trough hanging west is more supported by a Phase 7 deamplified back towards the nina background. We will need the through to kick out but if the MJO fails us then we probably see something like this last cold shot as the trough shears out and there is some over running precipitation but not a big storm.

Euro MJO shows it going 7 to 8 as well....

Amplitude and progression of convection play a role, that is why the MJO is tricky at times as an indicator. Amped up Phase 7 can be a good loading pattern for cold but it depends on how it eventually unloads. I actually think that a fade towards background might be better for us vs. a big swing through 8 that transitions us to a more east based mean trough. It might not be as cold but we probably see better precipitation chances.

[Tejas89]

February of 2011

For DFW, I believe that was the longest stretch of sub-freezing temps since December '83. It also snowed about 4 inches while while temps hung in the teens, a rare occurrence indeed.