Texas Winter 2017-2018
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Brent wrote:Now the CMC has the Christmas winter storm lol
Just mind boggling. I need a weather break like Portastorm recommended. My head hurts and a lazy day watching football for hours is on tap.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
GFS ice storm Christmas night into the day after in Central TX
Lol
Lol
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Upper air and surface don't match.. I'm totally discarding this run heheheh. That run would bring a day and a half sleet storm to Del Rio
Last edited by hriverajr on Sun Dec 17, 2017 11:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Anything I post is my personal opinion and should not used for any type of planning or lifesaving reasons. Please refer to National Weather Service forecasts.
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
hriverajr wrote:Upper air and surface don't match.. I'm totally discarding this run heheheh
GFS just went to another different solution

I guess just wait until the system hits the west coast on Weds
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- cheezyWXguy
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
The 12z seems much more robust with the -EPO and western trough through 6 days or so, but completely hangs it up, due to the SE ridge. No movement southward or eastward. Dramatically different from the previous run. Good thing my work week starts today, it will force me to take a break from these ridiculous models.
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- Rgv20
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
12zCMC just went of its meds.....1070mb high center in Wyoming by next Tuesday morning



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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
That’s why I said don’t model hug we won’t know till wed or Thursday, just the way it is
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
single digits at the end of the CMC
-50's in Wyoming under a 1067 mb high 


Last edited by Brent on Sun Dec 17, 2017 11:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#neversummer
- gatorcane
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Brent wrote:single digits at the end of the CMC-40s in Wyoming under a 1067 mb high
Lol the Crazy Uncle CMC has lost its mind:




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- wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
From a severe ice storm across SE TX a few days ago to near 80F on Christmas day with the 12Z run. That's why you can't rely too much on the GFS beyond 3-4 days. I'm sure its forecast for Christmas will change again in the coming days.
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
CaptinCrunch wrote:Step away from the GFS till Wednesday to cut down on potential anger management issues.
Yea, it's hard to take this run seriously with the drastic changes at H5.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- gboudx
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
This is typical in the mid-term. Let's see what starts happening about 0z Wednesday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
That 12z GFS is “ridic” and not in a good way. THROW IT OUT! THROW IT OUT! THROW IT OUT!
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- spencer817
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
iorange55 wrote:That 12z GFS is “ridic” and not in a good way. THROW IT OUT! THROW IT OUT! THROW IT OUT!
I think it still tilts it negative, but then keeps it in MX, makes no sense.
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I'm going to go to school for this stuff 

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Joe Bastardi went on a Tweet storm this morning, and I believe we should all ponder his thoughtful words:
"I have enormous love for weather nuts that get excited and post maps. Its like the modern day little kid running to the window to see if its snowing, So lets just all lighten up and quit taking things so serious,Its weather, we get to watch and talk about it now, we are blessed. I think sometimes this idea that if you work in the field, you own the weather and people posting maps makes your job harder, or is irresponsible is over the top. Its called freedom, and if you feel challenged, maybe its something in you that it threatened. Weather nuts are like the guy who dreams of hitting the home run in the world series, or throwing the touchdown pass in the super bowl. Those of us blessed to work in the field should understand that there are many that wish they could, and love it as much as us! Just my opinion on all the posting going on, I think its fun. People can believe what they want to believe Alot on the table. Very different from last few Christmases as this December will turn out, which was the point we were making back in fall."
"I have enormous love for weather nuts that get excited and post maps. Its like the modern day little kid running to the window to see if its snowing, So lets just all lighten up and quit taking things so serious,Its weather, we get to watch and talk about it now, we are blessed. I think sometimes this idea that if you work in the field, you own the weather and people posting maps makes your job harder, or is irresponsible is over the top. Its called freedom, and if you feel challenged, maybe its something in you that it threatened. Weather nuts are like the guy who dreams of hitting the home run in the world series, or throwing the touchdown pass in the super bowl. Those of us blessed to work in the field should understand that there are many that wish they could, and love it as much as us! Just my opinion on all the posting going on, I think its fun. People can believe what they want to believe Alot on the table. Very different from last few Christmases as this December will turn out, which was the point we were making back in fall."
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Tammie - Sherman TX
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Yep, well stated by Joe B in the post above.
Many unknowns remain such as how cold it will get, the depth of the cold air above the surface, and how much available moisture will be in the atmosphere to interact with any disturbances to pin down any details. The watch, wait, and see continues onward through next week.
Ft Worth NWS AFD:
Keep checking back with us and your other trusted weather sources as we
refine the details of this complex weather scenario over the coming days.
Houston-Galveston NWS AFD:
Like tropical wx, trends are always fun to watch, but until we get a bit closer to the time period in question, there`s just too much uncertainty to accurately predict winter wx impacts (if any) this far out.
Many unknowns remain such as how cold it will get, the depth of the cold air above the surface, and how much available moisture will be in the atmosphere to interact with any disturbances to pin down any details. The watch, wait, and see continues onward through next week.
Ft Worth NWS AFD:
Keep checking back with us and your other trusted weather sources as we
refine the details of this complex weather scenario over the coming days.
Houston-Galveston NWS AFD:
Like tropical wx, trends are always fun to watch, but until we get a bit closer to the time period in question, there`s just too much uncertainty to accurately predict winter wx impacts (if any) this far out.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Tammie wrote:Joe Bastardi went on a Tweet storm this morning, and I believe we should all ponder his thoughtful words:
"I have enormous love for weather nuts that get excited and post maps. Its like the modern day little kid running to the window to see if its snowing, So lets just all lighten up and quit taking things so serious,Its weather, we get to watch and talk about it now, we are blessed. I think sometimes this idea that if you work in the field, you own the weather and people posting maps makes your job harder, or is irresponsible is over the top. Its called freedom, and if you feel challenged, maybe its something in you that it threatened. Weather nuts are like the guy who dreams of hitting the home run in the world series, or throwing the touchdown pass in the super bowl. Those of us blessed to work in the field should understand that there are many that wish they could, and love it as much as us! Just my opinion on all the posting going on, I think its fun. People can believe what they want to believe Alot on the table. Very different from last few Christmases as this December will turn out, which was the point we were making back in fall."
I am glad he posted that. Yes, there are some out there that are purely looking for attention but most are just honestly sharing their passion with the world. Always make your decisions based on NWS and other pros, but individuals can at times be a good supplement.
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