Texas Winter 2017-2018

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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2561 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:16 pm

GFS much warmer Christmas Day, mid 40s for highs vs below freezing lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2562 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:16 pm

wxman57 wrote:There is still no cold air in the source region of northern and western Canada. Temperatures up there are in the teens and 20s (some 30s).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... amer_1.png

By Christmas Eve, there is some cold air in central Canada, but nothing extreme. Minus 20s and 30s. That wouldn't support any massive high center. Something's not right...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... mer_23.png


Those temps are too warm for the cold miser :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2563 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:17 pm

iorange55 wrote:“Something’s not right” is correct. I can honestly say I have no idea what’s going to happen.

Cold

Extreme cold

Snow

Ice

60s and sunny

Zombies? Possibly.

If I were to bet, as much as the models love to troll us and from past history of always being 5-10 days out and never materializing, I’d say 60s and sunny.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2564 Postby iorange55 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:22 pm

This GFS run definitely warmed things up too quickly after Christmas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2565 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:24 pm

lol the 1060+ mb high is nowhere to be found

or even remotely close
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2566 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:24 pm

Is the sudden warm up on Christmas or after Christmas a model fluke or are we starting to come into the time frame where what’s actually going to happen is starting to show?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2567 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:26 pm

CMC has snow in Dallas on December 27th
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2568 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:26 pm

Cmc is crazy once again lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2569 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:28 pm

Considering the lack of severe cold in Canada i would lean towards a more typical 1045 ish high. This in addition to an active STJ I would say a Christmas time frame snow is possible with temps in the 30s and upper 20s. The modeled 1065 highs would shove everything way south.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2570 Postby SnowintheFalls » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:28 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
iorange55 wrote:“Something’s not right” is correct. I can honestly say I have no idea what’s going to happen.

Cold

Extreme cold

Snow

Ice

60s and sunny

Zombies? Possibly.

If I were to bet, as much as the models love to troll us and from past history of always being 5-10 days out and never materializing, I’d say 60s and sunny.


Sad but true! I know that I got far too swept up in the long term model watching. I am still holding hope for some wintry fun in the near future but it has been a bit discouraging seeing the fun always pushed back.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2571 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:30 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Is the sudden warm up on Christmas or after Christmas a model fluke or are we starting to come into the time frame where what’s actually going to happen is starting to show?


Here is the past 10 runs for Christmas afternoon. I guess you can say this is the latest run, sure. Is it the right run? Well If you choose to believe it then yes!

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2572 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:31 pm

GFS has an ice storm in Dallas on December 27th, the day the CMC has snow

1060 mb high over Montana
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2573 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:33 pm

The NAM is trying to show some post frontal precip on Friday. The NAM is usually pretty reliable compared to the globals.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2574 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:37 pm

That is a massive ice storm from the post-Christmas storm on the GFS

this is definitely the best big storm signal of the timeframe
Last edited by Brent on Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2575 Postby wxman22 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:37 pm

Interesting....

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2576 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:40 pm

2 days of ice in DFW December 27th-29th

bye bye power grid
Last edited by Brent on Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2577 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:41 pm

Lol it will change guys don’t get to giddy, when models keep pushing it back then they have no clue lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2578 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:42 pm

I thinknyou can assume that the Canadian is too strong with the surface high so bring the preip further north. On the GFS I feel like temps would run colder than shown with a 1050 high in Nebraska so less freezing rain until we get on the backside of the surface high. A combo of those two solutions is possible.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2579 Postby aggiecutter » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:43 pm

Brent wrote:That is a massive ice storm from the post-Christmas storm on the GFS

this is definitely the best big storm signal of the timeframe


That is inevitable. With this type of pattern you will get the major I-30, I-20 winter storm. As JB says, that will be a big ticket item.

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2580 Postby SnowintheFalls » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:44 pm

Brent wrote:2 days of ice in DFW December 27th-29th

bye bye power grid


That would be devestating but these models tend to be delusional at this point!
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