Texas Winter 2017-2018
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
GFS much warmer Christmas Day, mid 40s for highs vs below freezing lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
wxman57 wrote:There is still no cold air in the source region of northern and western Canada. Temperatures up there are in the teens and 20s (some 30s).
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... amer_1.png
By Christmas Eve, there is some cold air in central Canada, but nothing extreme. Minus 20s and 30s. That wouldn't support any massive high center. Something's not right...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... mer_23.png
Those temps are too warm for the cold miser

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
iorange55 wrote:“Something’s not right” is correct. I can honestly say I have no idea what’s going to happen.
Cold
Extreme cold
Snow
Ice
60s and sunny
Zombies? Possibly.
If I were to bet, as much as the models love to troll us and from past history of always being 5-10 days out and never materializing, I’d say 60s and sunny.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
This GFS run definitely warmed things up too quickly after Christmas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
lol the 1060+ mb high is nowhere to be found
or even remotely close
or even remotely close
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Is the sudden warm up on Christmas or after Christmas a model fluke or are we starting to come into the time frame where what’s actually going to happen is starting to show?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Considering the lack of severe cold in Canada i would lean towards a more typical 1045 ish high. This in addition to an active STJ I would say a Christmas time frame snow is possible with temps in the 30s and upper 20s. The modeled 1065 highs would shove everything way south.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Yukon Cornelius wrote:iorange55 wrote:“Something’s not right” is correct. I can honestly say I have no idea what’s going to happen.
Cold
Extreme cold
Snow
Ice
60s and sunny
Zombies? Possibly.
If I were to bet, as much as the models love to troll us and from past history of always being 5-10 days out and never materializing, I’d say 60s and sunny.
Sad but true! I know that I got far too swept up in the long term model watching. I am still holding hope for some wintry fun in the near future but it has been a bit discouraging seeing the fun always pushed back.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Yukon Cornelius wrote:Is the sudden warm up on Christmas or after Christmas a model fluke or are we starting to come into the time frame where what’s actually going to happen is starting to show?
Here is the past 10 runs for Christmas afternoon. I guess you can say this is the latest run, sure. Is it the right run? Well If you choose to believe it then yes!

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
GFS has an ice storm in Dallas on December 27th, the day the CMC has snow
1060 mb high over Montana
1060 mb high over Montana
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
The NAM is trying to show some post frontal precip on Friday. The NAM is usually pretty reliable compared to the globals.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
That is a massive ice storm from the post-Christmas storm on the GFS
this is definitely the best big storm signal of the timeframe
this is definitely the best big storm signal of the timeframe
Last edited by Brent on Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
2 days of ice in DFW December 27th-29th
bye bye power grid
bye bye power grid
Last edited by Brent on Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Lol it will change guys don’t get to giddy, when models keep pushing it back then they have no clue lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
I thinknyou can assume that the Canadian is too strong with the surface high so bring the preip further north. On the GFS I feel like temps would run colder than shown with a 1050 high in Nebraska so less freezing rain until we get on the backside of the surface high. A combo of those two solutions is possible.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Brent wrote:That is a massive ice storm from the post-Christmas storm on the GFS
this is definitely the best big storm signal of the timeframe
That is inevitable. With this type of pattern you will get the major I-30, I-20 winter storm. As JB says, that will be a big ticket item.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Brent wrote:2 days of ice in DFW December 27th-29th
bye bye power grid
That would be devestating but these models tend to be delusional at this point!
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