Texas Winter 2017-2018

[ThunderSleetDreams]

NAM coming into range. Time to put the globals on the back burner

[missygirl810]

Check out the lightning one lol

http://www.momtastic.com/webecoist/2012/11/02/signs-of-winter-weather-14-folklore-predictions/

If true, that would put snow and ice right at the 29th. If I remember correctly, some of the models were showing frozen precip on that day. Some of the folklore regarding weather is pretty out there but I do believe in some of it, if not for the current year but signs being shown now for the next winter.

We also had a few super Foggy August mornings which to me seems pretty uncommon and also being rare with all the rain we received.

I couldn't remember if we had any in August.

[gpsnowman]

Extremely heavy rain at the airport. Wouldn't be surprised if it's over two inches already.

[aggiecutter]

Wow lots of lightning and thunder. Models whiffed on this last week. GFS had not a drop few runs ago sheared system. Neg tilt rainstorm

-SOI beat the guidance

That's what I've been trying to get over. Go with the pattern, not the models.

[Texas Snowman]

Very good December rainfall this morning with thunder and lightning!

Had nearly an inch in Denison on Saturday night and we're approaching that already this morning (0.72 so far)!

[Texas Snowman]

Wow lots of lightning and thunder. Models whiffed on this last week. GFS had not a drop few runs ago sheared system. Neg tilt rainstorm

-SOI beat the guidance

That's what I've been trying to get over. Go with the pattern, not the models.

Was thinking this very thing last night. Models blew it on this system last week.

Pattern, not the daily edition of "As the Model Turns."

[wxman57]

Just figured out that I CAN plot soundings off the ECMWF on my workstation. Below is a plot using the 00Z ECMWF valid 6am on Christmas Morning for Dallas. For those who can't read it, it says very dry with a temperature near 30 degrees.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Just figured out that I CAN plot soundings off the ECMWF on my workstation. Below is a plot using the 00Z ECMWF valid 6am on Christmas Morning for Dallas. For those who can't read it, it says very dry with a temperature near 30 degrees.

http://wxman57.com/images/ECSkew-T.JPG

Knowing the Euro, that means 20-22 and dry.

[wxman57]

Here's the 00Z Euro Skew-T sounding for IAH on Christmas morning. Relative humidity near zero aloft. Surface temperature about -1C (30F).

[stormlover2013]

good I need good weather for the independence bowl game!! lol

[ronyan]

I remember a couple of years ago (Jan 2015) we had a ~1064mb high come down into Montana, didn't really get extremely cold in TX. 28F was min for IAH. We may see something similar to this, but I expect it will be a bit colder.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I remember a couple of years ago (Jan 2015) we had a ~1064mb high come down into Montana, didn't really get extremely cold in TX. 28F was min for IAH. We may see something similar to this, but I expect it will be a bit colder.

1064 is the all time record.

I think you’re referring to the 1050ish High that people thought would bottom the temps out but it only got to the upper 20s in Houston

[ronyan]

It was an HP that was modeled at 1064mb a couple of days before, I don't remember the exact value but it didn't end up breaking the record. Hence ~1064 See this: http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/researc ... swhite.gif Jan 7 2015

[bubba hotep]

DFW is pushing 1.25" already and some areas of northern Dallas and southern Collin County are reporting totals nearing 2"

[Portastorm]

It was an HP that was modeled at 1064mb a couple of days before, I don't remember the exact value but it didn't end up breaking the record. Hence ~1064

A lot of that depends on the 500mb flow pattern. I'm guessing that in the instance you reference, the coldest air from that HP moved to our northeast and the upper level flow did not bring it down the spine of the Rockies and directly into Texas. As you know that is often what happens to us and we only get a glancing blow.

[Portastorm]

DFW is pushing 1.25" already and some areas of northern Dallas and southern Collin County are reporting totals nearing 2"

Got about 1.5" near at the PWC. Add that to what we had a few days ago and it's almost 3" in the last five days. We've been blessed down here! #LiquidGold

[ronyan]

It was an HP that was modeled at 1064mb a couple of days before, I don't remember the exact value but it didn't end up breaking the record. Hence ~1064

A lot of that depends on the 500mb flow pattern. I'm guessing that in the instance you reference, the coldest air from that HP moved to our northeast and the upper level flow did not bring it down the spine of the Rockies and directly into Texas. As you know that is often what happens to us and we only get a glancing blow.

I would need to check the 500mb charts from that time but yeah that's usually what happens. I thought in that case it was that the source region was well above normal, could be incorrect on that.

[Portastorm]

It was an HP that was modeled at 1064mb a couple of days before, I don't remember the exact value but it didn't end up breaking the record. Hence ~1064

A lot of that depends on the 500mb flow pattern. I'm guessing that in the instance you reference, the coldest air from that HP moved to our northeast and the upper level flow did not bring it down the spine of the Rockies and directly into Texas. As you know that is often what happens to us and we only get a glancing blow.

I would need to check the 500mb charts from that time but yeah that's usually what happens. I thought in that case it was that the source region was well above normal, could be incorrect on that.

That could be true as well. I think you brought up a good point for us all to be mindful of ... don't make assumptions about our weather based on the strength of high pressure to our north. Wxman57 has told us repeatedly over the years to watch the temps in the source region.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z GFS and NAM are interesting through 12/23. They both have the trough at less of a positive tilt as it moves through New Mexico and more post-frontal precip over Texas on Friday. GFS surface temps for DFW in the mid 40s, NAM in the mid-upper 30s.

[South Texas Storms]

Interesting trends in the 12z models so far. Looks like most are shifting the trough axis a bit farther west for the storm system around Christmas. Could bring back frozen precip chances across portions of North TX as the disturbance lifts out.