Texas Winter 2017-2018

[CaptinCrunch]

Ditto, forecast was for around .75" of rain with it ending early afternoon. Already have over 2", it's currently pouring outside and another few hours of rain to go.

[Brent]

Models can't even get this rain event correct... Lol, Highs cooler then models forecasted, rain heavier and amounts higher. Sorry but I have 0 confidence in these models ability to forecast anything consistent or correct even @ 24hrs out.

Ikr, news just announced "more rain than expected" which was more rain than the models had 2-3 days ago.... its like whats the points of models? lol

at one point(as far out as Christmas is now), the globals had 70s and sunny this week...

and rain is a lot easier to forecast than snow is.

[CaptinCrunch]

December will be above average on precipitation (La Nina) and, if temps are even slightly below normal from here on out, December may even break even or finish slightly below average temperature wise too.


Currently December is .50" below normal on rainfall, however DFW has already received over 2" rain today.
Currently December is 5.2 above the monthly mean, several days of temps in the H40s/30s/L20s will eat that away.

[TheProfessor]

I wouldn't put too much stock into the NAM until the storm comes within range of the 3K NAM, 60 hour+ NAM can be as bad as the extended range GFS sometimes.

[Brent]

now suddenly the 12z Euro has another heavy rain event Friday! Sure why not lol Over 2 inches of rain at DFW

[bubba hotep]

Still a long ways to go, the teleconnections still support cold with a -EPO, -WPO, neutralish PNA. The orientation of the -EPO ridge will play a role in how the cold discharges into the US. The orientation of the -EPO is dependent on the NPAC wave break (the models struggle with this). Trust a blend of ensembles and teleconnections.

ETA: corrected phone autocorrect silliness

[bubba hotep]

now suddenly the 12z Euro has another heavy rain event Friday! Sure why not lol Over 2 inches of rain at DFW

Trend today has been towards a more neutral tilted trough and away from a positive tilted one that shears out most of the energy.

[JDawg512]

DFW is pushing 1.25" already and some areas of northern Dallas and southern Collin County are reporting totals nearing 2"

Got about 1.5" near at the PWC. Add that to what we had a few days ago and it's almost 3" in the last five days. We've been blessed down here! #LiquidGold

I woke up when the initial storm arrived around 2:40 a.m. and was pleasantly surprised at how heavy the rain was coming down. It was so loud from the noise of the water hitting the roof, it woke everyone up here in the Rain Cave. Stayed up to watch the lighting. It was a very heavy cluster that went right through the heart of south Austin. Nearly 2 inches recorded in my gauges. December is making up for the dismal October and November totals.

[iorange55]

now suddenly the 12z Euro has another heavy rain event Friday! Sure why not lol Over 2 inches of rain at DFW

Looks like our storm is coming back...surprise surprise. Now let’s watch the temps...

[Brent]

now suddenly the 12z Euro has another heavy rain event Friday! Sure why not lol Over 2 inches of rain at DFW

Looks like our storm is coming back...surprise surprise. Now let’s watch the temps...

it's still pretty warm for now but we will certainly have to watch that.

Euro still has Christmas colder so there's that... dry.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think its possible if we can get a strong high to come down, if we can get it to hold in place for a few days, maybe C Tx and N Tx and get a winter surprise.

[cheezyWXguy]

now suddenly the 12z Euro has another heavy rain event Friday! Sure why not lol Over 2 inches of rain at DFW

Looks like our storm is coming back...surprise surprise. Now let’s watch the temps...

it's still pretty warm for now but we will certainly have to watch that.

Euro still has Christmas colder so there's that... dry.

Definitely need to keep our eyes peeled. 12z nam is very close on temps (mid 30s) and actually shows a verryy small amount of frozen precip at DFW, likely freezing rain, if you believe the “snow depth” map.

[Brent]

3 inches of rain here already

I dont remember any model predicting that much less by 1pm lol

[aggiecutter]

Still a long ways to go, the telecommunications still support cold with a -EPO, -WPO, neutralish PNA. The orientation of the -EPO ridge will play a role in how the cold discharges into the US. The orientation of the -EPO is dependent on the NPAC wave break (the models struggle with this). Trust a blend of ensembles and telecommunications.

Teleconnections

[bubba hotep]

Still a long ways to go, the telecommunications still support cold with a -EPO, -WPO, neutralish PNA. The orientation of the -EPO ridge will play a role in how the cold discharges into the US. The orientation of the -EPO is dependent on the NPAC wave break (the models struggle with this). Trust a blend of ensembles and telecommunications.

Teleconnections

Lol freaking autocorrect on phone. I do love me some telecommunications!

[gatorcane]

Funny how we go from talking about single digit lows and now talking about above normal temps!! Frustrating.

Yeah the models are showing things nowhere near as cold for Texas than they were from the runs a few days ago. Trend seems to be a bit warmer for this arctic front. Still cold but not single digits or anything ridiculous.

[wxman22]

FWIW the 12z Euro has a winter storm starting across the state towards the end of the run.

[orangeblood]

Euro Op is trending towards CMC for Friday's system and also the long range ensembles late next week...big HP with S/W digging into the southwest. Lots of opportunities on the horizon (a reminder - they're rare in this part of the world) - we're bound to hit one of these!!

[stormlover2013]

lol we all saw what happen when all these models showed ice last week, everything keeps getting pushed back!!!

[Brent]

23 Christmas morning on the euro at DFW. More seasonal after Christmas