
Texas Winter 2017-2018
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

- CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8731
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Ditto, forecast was for around .75" of rain with it ending early afternoon. Already have over 2", it's currently pouring outside and another few hours of rain to go. 

2 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38106
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
CaptinCrunch wrote:Models can't even get this rain event correct... Lol, Highs cooler then models forecasted, rain heavier and amounts higher. Sorry but I have 0 confidence in these models ability to forecast anything consistent or correct even @ 24hrs out.
Ikr, news just announced "more rain than expected" which was more rain than the models had 2-3 days ago.... its like whats the points of models? lol
at one point(as far out as Christmas is now), the globals had 70s and sunny this week...
and rain is a lot easier to forecast than snow is.

4 likes
#neversummer
- CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8731
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
December will be above average on precipitation (La Nina) and, if temps are even slightly below normal from here on out, December may even break even or finish slightly below average temperature wise too.
Currently December is .50" below normal on rainfall, however DFW has already received over 2" rain today.
Currently December is 5.2 above the monthly mean, several days of temps in the H40s/30s/L20s will eat that away.
Currently December is .50" below normal on rainfall, however DFW has already received over 2" rain today.
Currently December is 5.2 above the monthly mean, several days of temps in the H40s/30s/L20s will eat that away.
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Tue Dec 19, 2017 1:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.
1 likes
- TheProfessor
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3506
- Age: 28
- Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
- Location: Wichita, Kansas
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
I wouldn't put too much stock into the NAM until the storm comes within range of the 3K NAM, 60 hour+ NAM can be as bad as the extended range GFS sometimes.
1 likes
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38106
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
now suddenly the 12z Euro has another heavy rain event Friday! Sure why not lol Over 2 inches of rain at DFW
Last edited by Brent on Tue Dec 19, 2017 1:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
#neversummer
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5837
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Still a long ways to go, the teleconnections still support cold with a -EPO, -WPO, neutralish PNA. The orientation of the -EPO ridge will play a role in how the cold discharges into the US. The orientation of the -EPO is dependent on the NPAC wave break (the models struggle with this). Trust a blend of ensembles and teleconnections.
ETA: corrected phone autocorrect silliness
ETA: corrected phone autocorrect silliness
Last edited by bubba hotep on Tue Dec 19, 2017 2:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5837
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Brent wrote:now suddenly the 12z Euro has another heavy rain event Friday! Sure why not lol Over 2 inches of rain at DFW
Trend today has been towards a more neutral tilted trough and away from a positive tilted one that shears out most of the energy.
2 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Portastorm wrote:bubba hotep wrote:DFW is pushing 1.25" already and some areas of northern Dallas and southern Collin County are reporting totals nearing 2"
Got about 1.5" near at the PWC. Add that to what we had a few days ago and it's almost 3" in the last five days. We've been blessed down here! #LiquidGold
I woke up when the initial storm arrived around 2:40 a.m. and was pleasantly surprised at how heavy the rain was coming down. It was so loud from the noise of the water hitting the roof, it woke everyone up here in the Rain Cave. Stayed up to watch the lighting. It was a very heavy cluster that went right through the heart of south Austin. Nearly 2 inches recorded in my gauges. December is making up for the dismal October and November totals.
1 likes
Resident Rain Miser
I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Brent wrote:now suddenly the 12z Euro has another heavy rain event Friday! Sure why not lol Over 2 inches of rain at DFW
Looks like our storm is coming back...surprise surprise. Now let’s watch the temps...

1 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38106
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
iorange55 wrote:Brent wrote:now suddenly the 12z Euro has another heavy rain event Friday! Sure why not lol Over 2 inches of rain at DFW
Looks like our storm is coming back...surprise surprise. Now let’s watch the temps...
it's still pretty warm for now but we will certainly have to watch that.
Euro still has Christmas colder so there's that... dry.
0 likes
#neversummer
- TeamPlayersBlue
- Category 5
- Posts: 3446
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
- Location: Denver/Applewood, CO
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
I think its possible if we can get a strong high to come down, if we can get it to hold in place for a few days, maybe C Tx and N Tx and get a winter surprise.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cheezyWXguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 6110
- Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
- Location: Dallas, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Brent wrote:iorange55 wrote:Brent wrote:now suddenly the 12z Euro has another heavy rain event Friday! Sure why not lol Over 2 inches of rain at DFW
Looks like our storm is coming back...surprise surprise. Now let’s watch the temps...
it's still pretty warm for now but we will certainly have to watch that.
Euro still has Christmas colder so there's that... dry.
Definitely need to keep our eyes peeled. 12z nam is very close on temps (mid 30s) and actually shows a verryy small amount of frozen precip at DFW, likely freezing rain, if you believe the “snow depth” map.
1 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38106
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
3 inches of rain here already
I dont remember any model predicting that much less by 1pm lol

I dont remember any model predicting that much less by 1pm lol
Last edited by Brent on Tue Dec 19, 2017 1:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes
#neversummer
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1753
- Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 9:22 pm
- Location: Texarkana
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
bubba hotep wrote:Still a long ways to go, the telecommunications still support cold with a -EPO, -WPO, neutralish PNA. The orientation of the -EPO ridge will play a role in how the cold discharges into the US. The orientation of the -EPO is dependent on the NPAC wave break (the models struggle with this). Trust a blend of ensembles and telecommunications.
Teleconnections

2 likes
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5837
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
aggiecutter wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Still a long ways to go, the telecommunications still support cold with a -EPO, -WPO, neutralish PNA. The orientation of the -EPO ridge will play a role in how the cold discharges into the US. The orientation of the -EPO is dependent on the NPAC wave break (the models struggle with this). Trust a blend of ensembles and telecommunications.
Teleconnections
Lol freaking autocorrect on phone. I do love me some telecommunications!
1 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23692
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
snowballzzz wrote:Funny how we go from talking about single digit lows and now talking about above normal temps!! Frustrating.
Yeah the models are showing things nowhere near as cold for Texas than they were from the runs a few days ago. Trend seems to be a bit warmer for this arctic front. Still cold but not single digits or anything ridiculous.
0 likes
- wxman22
- Category 5
- Posts: 1502
- Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 12:39 am
- Location: Wichita Falls, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
FWIW the 12z Euro has a winter storm starting across the state towards the end of the run.
1 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3714
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
- Location: Fort Worth, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Euro Op is trending towards CMC for Friday's system and also the long range ensembles late next week...big HP with S/W digging into the southwest. Lots of opportunities on the horizon (a reminder - they're rare in this part of the world) - we're bound to hit one of these!!


Last edited by orangeblood on Tue Dec 19, 2017 2:16 pm, edited 4 times in total.
1 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
lol we all saw what happen when all these models showed ice last week, everything keeps getting pushed back!!!
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38106
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
23 Christmas morning on the euro at DFW. More seasonal after Christmas
Last edited by Brent on Tue Dec 19, 2017 2:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
#neversummer
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 33 guests