Texas Winter 2017-2018

[iorange55]

Euro looks to be a bit slower with the Friday/Saturday storm... still a bit warm for frozen though. Rain ends with temperatures around 40 in Dallas Saturday morning

close to 2 inches of rain too again

Christmas Eve well into the 50s this run

Gonna be interesting to see if we get cold enough. The model runs are basically going back to the solution they had in the long range with the moisture being in place.

It’s just, they have the temps a little warmer now. Hopefully they’re still playing catch up

Went from major winter storm, to cold and dry, to now cool and wet.

[Cpv17]

Euro looks to be a bit slower with the Friday/Saturday storm... still a bit warm for frozen though. Rain ends with temperatures around 40 in Dallas Saturday morning

close to 2 inches of rain too again

Christmas Eve well into the 50s this run

Gonna be interesting to see if we get cold enough. The model runs are basically going back to the solution they had in the long range with the moisture being in place.

It’s just, they have the temps a little warmer now. Hopefully they’re still playing catch up

Went from major winter storm, to cold and dry, to now cool and wet.

Yeah, but we all know temperatures always come in colder than the forecast calls for.

[Brent]

Euro doesn't have much of a post-Christmas storm... a little rain but the precip is over way before its cold

[Lagreeneyes03]

Euro doesn't have much of a post-Christmas storm... a little rain but the precip is over way before its cold

What did the Euro have 5 days ago as far as the rain we just had? Just curious....

[cheezyWXguy]

6z GFS is a big change in the right direction from its previous runs if you want winter precip. Holds the energy quite a bit further back to the SW and gets it much closer to cutting off as it approaches Texas from the west.

[gatorcane]

Models trending even warmer overnight with the front for a Texas. Core of cold shifts east well north of the state.

[Ntxw]

Yep 6z gfs took a step towards the other guidance giving up on sheared positive tilt trough. Now we look for colder than modeled front passage, and further south track so instead of heavy rain, maybe something else.

[stormlover2013]

Models are getting a better grasp now, feeling more confident that just rain this weekend, source of region isn’t that cold, euro is warmer and gfs so bowl game is looking good babyy

[bubba hotep]

Euro doesn't have much of a post-Christmas storm... a little rain but the precip is over way before its cold

I'm not worried about that Euro run, it leaves the cutoff over the Pacific off of Cali. It has been trying to leave lows way SW or trying to retrograde them out there, here lately and it hasn't been happening IRL. I would expect future runs to get more progressive with that energy.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

After a week of thinking we'd have the cold but not the moisture lift for winter weather, it's going to be amusing if we have a negative tilt trough lifting across the heart of Texas but we don't have the cold to create winter fun. The Heat Miser has been warning us all week that the source regions aren't that cold.

[orangeblood]

Looking at the upcoming Upper Level Pattern evolving next week, it seems pretty obvious as to why the models are bi-polar from run to run....there is so much low level Arctic Air coming into the lower 48, pressing underneath the higher height fields across the south that they don't have a clue where the arctic boundary will set up late next week. That is key to where these shortwaves focus their attention - still plus 7 days out so would expect the same variations for today's runs.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Third morning in a row of decently heavy fog and drizzle. Picked up 1.5" yesterday, although not as much as other areas of the state, still grateful with as dry as its been.

[losf1981]

Models are getting a better grasp now, feeling more confident that just rain this weekend, source of region isn’t that cold, euro is warmer and gfs so bowl game is looking good babyy

dagger to the heart for this snow kid......

[Ntxw]

Models are getting a better grasp now, feeling more confident that just rain this weekend, source of region isn’t that cold, euro is warmer and gfs so bowl game is looking good babyy

dagger to the heart for this snow kid......

Keep hope! I have noticed the cynicism of the tropical threads have bled to the winter thread over the years. Modelology can do that. It has already snowed in Austin against naysayers earlier this month. Let the days play out before conceding or claim victory

[Ntxw]

NAM is still trending to the Canadian

[OKMet83]

Nam trending towards CMC as said above but lags the colder air WAY behind.. let’s hope it’s just doing a crappy job of handling it .. Time will tell!

[Portastorm]

Models are getting a better grasp now, feeling more confident that just rain this weekend, source of region isn’t that cold, euro is warmer and gfs so bowl game is looking good babyy

dagger to the heart for this snow kid......

Keep hope! I have noticed the cynicism of the tropical threads have bled to the winter thread over the years. Modelology can do that. It has already snowed in Austin against naysayers earlier this month. Let the days play out before conceding or claim victory

Yes, yes, and yes! Because it snowed in the most improbable places already in Texas, including Austin, you folks in the northern part of the state will score at some point soon. Keep the faith!

[snowballzzz]

Looking at the weather.com 10 day.. It has us get down to a low of 8* on New Years. That would be sure to bust some pipes.. I know that this is all computer based, but still funny to look at!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

GEFS temps still quite a bit colder than operational. We are pretty close to go time for them to be this wide.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

10 days out again.....